Shrinking Cities: Causes and Effects of Urban Population Losses in the Twentieth Century

Abstract

In the past two centuries, urban growth has increased at a rapid pace, mainly driven by the demographic impact of industrialization. Besides urban growth, as this article argues, effects of industrialization have likewise intensified urban shrinkage. Cities of the industrial age have experienced unprecedented economic crises followed by waves of out-migration; they have suffered from violent destruction, made possible by the mechanization of war; they have been drained by suburbanization driven by an industrialized building sector and increasing private car ownership; and they have undergone processes of deindustrialization followed by losses of workplaces and population. This article outlines the historic development of urban shrinkage in the twentieth century, with a particular focus on the aged industrial countries. Based on an extensive evaluation of historic population data, the article provides an overview of the most relevant causes of shrinking cities, and offers an outlook on future demographic trends.

Forecasting Urban Vacancy Dynamics in a Shrinking City: A Land Transformation Model

“…Several studies have identified principal causal mechanisms contributing to vacant urban land, but studies that quantify the exact influence on vacant land accretion are difficult to find [20]. The primary causes of vacant land can be categorized by four different, yet overlapping, classifications: (1) deindustrialization or shifts from an industrial to service economy [40,[46][47][48], (2) weak market conditions and downturns [49][50][51], (3) decreasing personal wealth [52][53][54], and (4) odd physical characteristics/bad location [40,53,55]. Due to these factors, losses in residential, commercial, and business activities due to an oversupply of vacant land can, in many cases, result in a decrease in land prices, property values, and tax revenues [7,56].…”

<b>Regional Differences in the Socio-economic and Built-environment Factors of Vacant House Ratio as a Key Indicator for Spatial Urban Shrinkage</b>

“…However, it could also be an opportunity to restructure the cities (Haase 2008) [4]. One of the main impacts that urban shrinkage entails is an increase in vacant housing (Rieniets 2009) [5]. A large amount of vacant housing will lead to anxiety about crime and the deterioration of the city environment (Spelman 1993) [6].…”

Economic Transition in the City of Paterson, New Jersey (America’s First Planned Industrial City): Causes, Impacts, and Urban Policy Implications

“…These changes have caused differential urban growth and resulted in hierarchical changes in the US urban system. Economic change in American cities has resulted from the interplay of a range of local, regional, national, and global forces [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. In the post-1945 period in particular, the forces of globalization, economic internationalization, mobility of capital, technological change, and changing international migration patterns have significantly shaped American cities [8].…”

“…Urban economic restructuring itself, in response to these forces, has led to locational repercussions involving metropolitan growth, decline, or stagnation, as well as intrametropolitan plant and employment shifts involving primarily decentralization to suburban areas or nonmetropolitan locations. Economic transitions since the 1960s have altered the socioeconomic structure of American cities [3,11]. The effects of deindustrialization on traditional industrial cities in USA include factory closure, urban fiscal crisis, unemployment, poverty, economic despair, and social decay.…”