Short term policies to keep the door open for Paris climate goals

Kriegler, Elmar; Bertram, Christoph; Kuramochi, Takeshi; Jakob, Michael; Pehl, Michaja; Stevanović, Miodrag; Höhne, Niklas; Luderer, Gunnar; Minx, Jan C.; Fekete, Hanna; Hilaire, Jérôme; Luna, Lisa; Popp, Alexander; Steckel, Jan Christoph; Sterl, Sebastian; Yalew, Amsalu Woldie; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Edenhofer, Ottmar

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aac4f1

Cited by 68 publications

(80 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…The climate change mitigation targets outlined in the Paris Agreement as well as the UN Agenda on Sustainable Development require a maintenance (and possible increase) of land-based carbon stocks, while also increasing agricultural production. [73][74][75][76] As the Paris agreement applies to all land uses irrespective of their product, the response to the challenge of climate change should not be driven by different policies focusing on different facets of land-based emissions. Only an integrated approach to LUC and the management of natural assets will ensure the achievement of effective climate change mitigation, and other land-based sustainability goals.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Progress and barriers in understanding and preventing indirect land‐use change

Daioglou

Woltjer

Strengers

et al. 2020

Biofuels Bioprod Bioref

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Climate change mitigation pathways have highlighted both the critical role of land‐use emissions, and the potential use of biofuels as a low‐emission energy carrier. This has led to concerns about the emission mitigation potential of biofuels, particularly related to indirect land‐use change (ILUC). This arises when the production of biofuels displaces the production of land‐based products elsewhere, either directly or via changes in crop prices, leading to indirect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We review a large body of literature that has emerged on ILUC assessment and quantification, highlighting the methodologies employed, the resultant emission factors, modeled dynamics driving ILUC, and the uncertainty therein. Our review reveals that improvements in ILUC assessment methods have failed to reduce uncertainty and increase confidence in ILUC factors, instead making marginal improvements to economic models. Thus, while assessments have highlighted measures that could reduce ILUC, it is impossible to control or determine the actual ILUC resulting from biofuel production. This makes ILUC a poor guiding principle for land‐use and climate policy, and does not help with the determination of the GHG performance of biofuels. Instead climate and land‐use policy should focus on more integrated protection of terrestrial resources, covering all land‐use‐related products. © 2020 The Authors. Biofuels, Bioproducts, and Biorefining published by Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Progress and barriers in understanding and preventing indirect land‐use change

Daioglou

Woltjer

Strengers

et al. 2020

Biofuels Bioprod Bioref

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“…The model was also used in the assessment of climate policy entry points to mitigation pathways consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement goals (UNFCCC, 2015). To that end, MAgPIE was broadened to represent near-term policies given by nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and covering land-based national targets for avoiding deforestation and targeted afforestation (Kriegler et al, 2018).…”

Section: A Brief History Of Magpiementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Evaluation plots for MAgPIE 4 inputs and outputs for the default settings, a run with soil organic matter explicitly modeled, a run with an alternative factor requirement setup with costs proportional to the production volume and a stand-alone run of the food demand module. Sources of historical data: Dietrich et al (2012), EDGAR (2010), FAOSTAT (2016), Gütschow et al (2017), Hurtt et al (2019), Lassaletta et al (2014) and World Bank (2018). Sources of other projections for SSP2 reference scenario: IAMC (2016).…”

Section: Impact Of Module Realizationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

MAgPIE 4 – a modular open-source framework for modeling global land systems

et al. 2019

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Abstract. The open-source modeling framework MAgPIE (Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment) combines economic and biophysical approaches to simulate spatially explicit global scenarios of land use within the 21st century and the respective interactions with the environment. Besides various other projects, it was used to simulate marker scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and contributed substantially to multiple IPCC assessments. However, with growing scope and detail, the non-linear model has become increasingly complex, computationally intensive and non-transparent, requiring structured approaches to improve the development and evaluation of the model.Here, we provide an overview on version 4 of MAgPIE and how it addresses these issues of increasing complexity using new technical features: modular structure with exchangeable module implementations, flexible spatial resolution, in-code documentation, automatized code checking, model/output evaluation and open accessibility. Application examples provide insights into model evaluation, modular flexibility and region-specific analysis approaches. While this paper is focused on the general framework as such, the publication is accompanied by a detailed model documentation describing contents and equations, and by model evaluation documents giving insights into model performance for a broad range of variables.With the open-source release of the MAgPIE 4 framework, we hope to contribute to more transparent, reproducible and collaborative research in the field. Due to its modularity and spatial flexibility, it should provide a basis for a broad range of land-related research with economic or biophysical, global or regional focus.

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“…A wide body of research has shown that the current global set of NDCs allow too many emissions to meet the 1.5-2 � C goal [15][16][17], which requires global net-zero CO 2 emissions by 2050-'70 (and gas specific reductions for the other GHGs), and are likely to lead to warming of roughly þ3 � C. In Latin America it is also the case that the NDCs of major emitter countries are not aligned with the Paris goals [18], and our results support this, with Costa Rica as the notable exception. Fig.…”

Section: Estimates Of Nationwide Ndcs and Ddpsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Net-zero Deep Decarbonization Pathways in Latin America: Challenges and Opportunities

Bataille¹,

Waisman²,

Vogt-Schilb³

et al. 2020

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This synthesis paper presents the objectives, approach and cross-cutting results of the Latin American Deep Decarbonization Pathways project (DDP-LAC). It synthesizes and compares detailed national and sectoral deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs) to 2050 compatible with the Paris Agreement objectives and domestic development priorities in Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru. The first five countries analysed in detail the energy system and agriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU) at a high level, while Peru focussed on a detailed analysis of AFOLU given its predominance in its GHG emissions. While economy-wide results were produced, this paper focuses on the electricity, passenger transport, and AFOLU results because of their current emissions, potential to grow, and identification of successful strategies for decarbonization (e.g. switching to clean electricity and other net-zero emissions fuels across the economy; urban planning, mode shifting, and electrification in passenger transport; and intensive sustainable agriculture, assignment of land use rights and their enforcement and afforestation in AFOLU). It also highlights where significant emissions remain in 2050, notably in industry, AFOLU, freight, and oil and gas production, all areas for future research. It derives insights for the design of domestic policy packages and identifies priorities for international cooperation.

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Short term policies to keep the door open for Paris climate goals

Cited by 68 publications

References 37 publications

Progress and barriers in understanding and preventing indirect land‐use change

Progress and barriers in understanding and preventing indirect land‐use change

MAgPIE 4 – a modular open-source framework for modeling global land systems

Net-zero Deep Decarbonization Pathways in Latin America: Challenges and Opportunities

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