Short-term effects of ambient temperature on non-external and cardiovascular mortality among older adults of metropolitan areas of Mexico

Hurtado-Díaz, Magali; Cruz, Julio C.; Texcalac-Sangrador, José Luis; Félix-Arellano, Eunice Elizabeth; Gutiérrez-Ávila, Iván; Briseño-Pérez, Arely; Saavedra-Lara, Nenetzen; Tobías, Aurelio; Riojas-Rodríguez, Horacio

doi:10.1007/s00484-019-01778-y

Cited by 20 publications

(12 citation statements)

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“…This longer term effect over time did not manifest in the Rural Center, where the demography is of a younger population. The longer term effect mentioned also tends to be related to negative prognosis for respiratory illnesses [3,24,40,53]. It is important to note that the confounding effect of flu on cold waves was negligible, with modifications lower than 0.00% in terms of the RR associated with T cold among all of the groups.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

The effect of cold waves on mortality in urban and rural areas of Madrid

et al. 2021

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Background While many studies analyze the effect of extreme thermal events on health, little has been written about the effects of extreme cold on mortality. This scarcity of papers is particularly relevant when we search studies about extreme cold on the health of rural population. Therefore, we tried to analyze the effect of cold waves on urban areas and rural areas from Madrid and to test whether differentiated effects exist between both population classes. For this purpose, we analyzed data from the municipalities with over 10,000 inhabitants for the period from January 1, 2000 through December 31, 2013. Municipalities were classified as urban or rural (Eurostat), and they were grouped into similar climatological zones: Urban Metropolitan Centre (UMC), Rural Northern Mountains (RNM), Rural Centre (RC) and Southern Rural (SR). The dependent variable was the daily mortality rate due to natural causes per million inhabitants (CIE-X: A00-R99) that occurred between the months of November and March for the period. The independent variable was minimum daily temperature (ºC) (Tmin). Social and demographic contextual variables were used, including: population > age 64 (%), deprivation index and housing indicators. The analysis was carried out in three phases: (1) determination of the threshold temperature (Tthreshold) which defines the cold waves; (2) determination of the relative risk (RR) for cold waves using Poisson linear regression (GLM); and (3) using GLM of the binomial family, Odds Ratios (OR) were calculated to analyze the relationship between the frequency of the appearance of cold waves and the socioeconomic variables. Results The UMC zone experienced 585 extreme cold events related to attributable increases in the mortality rate. The average number of cold waves in the rural zones was 319. The primary risk factor was the percentage of population over age 64, and the primary protective factor was housing rehabilitation. As a whole, the period experienced more cold waves (1542) than heat waves (1130). Conclusion The UMC was more vulnerable than the rural areas. Furthermore, the results support the development of prevention policies, especially considering the fact that cold wave events were more frequent than heat waves.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

The effect of cold waves on mortality in urban and rural areas of Madrid

et al. 2021

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“…Thus far, exposure assessment of Ta in epidemiological research in Mexico has relied heavily on measurements from a sparse network of ground stations that are not always located close to the populations under study (O'Neill et al ., 2005; Bell et al ., 2008; McMichael et al ., 2008; Hurtado‐Díaz et al ., 2019). The data from different monitoring networks can be challenging to work with because they are often organized heterogeneously (i.e., different file formats, temporal resolutions, time zones, differences and changes in the organization of records over time, and often coding errors), which may explain why only some and not all ground station data in Mexico have been used in previous epidemiological studies.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Mexico, epidemiological studies linking Ta exposure to health outcomes have mainly taken place in Mexico City and the larger Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA; O'Neill et al ., 2005; Bell et al ., 2008; McMichael et al ., 2008; Hurtado‐Díaz et al ., 2019). These studies reported associations with acute mortality in different age groups, including children (0–14 years old) and the elderly (≥65 years old), who are especially vulnerable to Ta exposure due to their physiological characteristics and their dependence on caregivers to regulate their body temperature.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A spatiotemporal reconstruction of daily ambient temperature using satellite data in the Megalopolis of Central Mexico from 2003 to 2019

Gutiérrez-Ávila

Arfer

Wong

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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While weather stations generally capture near‐surface ambient air temperature (Ta) at a high temporal resolution to calculate daily values (i.e., daily minimum, mean, and maximum Ta), their fixed locations can limit their spatial coverage and resolution even in densely populated urban areas. As a result, data from weather stations alone may be inadequate for Ta‐related epidemiology particularly when the stations are not located in the areas of interest for human exposure assessment. To address this limitation in the Megalopolis of Central Mexico (MCM), we developed the first spatiotemporally resolved hybrid satellite‐based land use regression Ta model for the region, home to nearly 30 million people and includes Mexico City and seven more metropolitan areas. Our model predicted daily minimum, mean, and maximum Ta for the years 2003–2019. We used data from 120 weather stations and Land Surface Temperature (LST) data from NASA's MODIS instruments on the Aqua and Terra satellites on a 1 × 1 km grid. We generated a satellite‐hybrid mixed‐effects model for each year, regressing Ta measurements against land use terms, day‐specific random intercepts, and fixed and random LST slopes. We assessed model performance using 10‐fold cross‐validation at withheld stations. Across all years, the root‐mean‐square error ranged from 0.92 to 1.92 K and the R2 ranged from .78 to .95. To demonstrate the utility of our model for health research, we evaluated the total number of days in the year 2010 when residents ≥65 years old were exposed to Ta extremes (above 30°C or below 5°C). Our model provides much needed high‐quality Ta estimates for epidemiology studies in the MCM region.

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“…where μ t denotes the expected counts of cardiovascular death on lag day t, α is the intercept, cb expresses the ‘cross-basis’ function, Temp represents the expected daily mean temperature, l is the lag day for temperature, ns is the natural cubic spline function, time t describes long-term trend and seasonality, n is the degree of freedom (df) of time trend, DOW t is an indicator variable for the day of the week (DOW), COVs are the potential confounding factors, including relative humidity, air pressure, and concentrations of air pollution (PM 2.5 , PM 10 , SO 2 , NO 2 , CO, and O 3 ), and the degrees of freedom is 3; dichotomous variables indicating the day of public holiday were based on previous studies [ 17 , 21 , 25 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The model uses df = 5 in the mean temperature [ 21 , 23 ]. The minimum value of the Akaike information criterion (AIC) for the quasi-Poisson models was used to select the optimum degrees of freedom for time trend and lag structure [ 25 ]. In the final model, we used df = 4 for time trend and df = 4 for lag.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme temperatures and cardiovascular mortality: assessing effect modification by subgroups in Ganzhou, China

Zhang

Xiong

et al. 2021

Global Health Action

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Background Many people die from cardiovascular diseases each year, and extreme temperatures are regarded as a risk factor for cardiovascular deaths. However, the relationship between temperature and cardiovascular deaths varies in different regions because of population density, demographic inequality, and economic situation, and the evidence in Ganzhou, China is limited and inconclusive. Objective This study aimed to assess extreme temperature-related cardiovascular mortality and identify the potential vulnerable people. Methods After controlling other meteorological measures, air pollution, seasonality, relative humidity, day of the week, and public holidays, we examined temperature-related cardiovascular mortality along 21 lag days by Poisson in Ganzhou, China. Results A J-shaped relationship was observed between mean temperature and cardiovascular mortality. Extremely low temperatures substantially increased the relative risks (RR) of cardiovascular mortality. The effect of cold temperature was delayed by 2–6 days and persisted for 4–10 days. However, the risk of cardiovascular mortality related to extremely high temperatures was not significant ( p > 0.05). Subgroup analysis indicated that extremely low temperatures had a stronger association with cardiovascular mortality in people with cerebrovascular diseases (RR: 1.282, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.020–1.611), males (RR: 1.492, 95% CI: 1.175–1.896), married people (RR: 1.590, 95% CI: 1.224–2.064), and people above the age of 65 years (RR: 1.641, 95% CI: 1.106–2.434) than in people with ischemic heart disease, females, unmarried people, and the elderly (≥65 years old), respectively. Conclusions The type of cardiovascular disease, sex, age, and marital status modified the effects of extremely low temperatures on the risk of cardiovascular mortality. These findings may help local governments to establish warning systems and precautionary measures to reduce temperature-related cardiovascular mortality.

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Short-term effects of ambient temperature on non-external and cardiovascular mortality among older adults of metropolitan areas of Mexico

Cited by 20 publications

References 50 publications

The effect of cold waves on mortality in urban and rural areas of Madrid

The effect of cold waves on mortality in urban and rural areas of Madrid

A spatiotemporal reconstruction of daily ambient temperature using satellite data in the Megalopolis of Central Mexico from 2003 to 2019

Extreme temperatures and cardiovascular mortality: assessing effect modification by subgroups in Ganzhou, China

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