Shocks and Turbulence: Globalization and the Occurrence of Civil War

Abstract

Several scholars argue that systemic global trends are pulling individuals not only upward toward the global level, but also downward to the local level; the result is a potential loss of authority for the state (Ferguson and Mansbach 2004;Rosenau 1990). Their theory of "fragmegration" can provide a causal mechanism for why longstanding grievances may erupt into civil war at a particular time. While increased global exposure does provide both states and individual citizens with tremendous benefits, sudden "shocks" of globalization can overwhelm a state's capacity to offset the negative impacts of globalization, thus weakening a state's capacity to deal with rival polities for the allegiance of its citizens. The present study conducts a cross-sectional logistic regression with discrete duration analysis to test the impact of globalization shocks on the onset of civil wars between the years 1970-1999. The results demonstrate that increasingly dramatic changes in the level of global integration are associated with an increased risk of civil war onset.

Scientific and social challenges for clinical psychology

“…These changes stimulate the development of cognitive domains and some competencies in individuals (Friedman, 2000). The negative influences of globalizaton are analyzed, among other areas, in the theory of culture shock and its consequences (Nieman, 2011).…”

Globalization, risk-taking and violence: too much too soon in the late Roman Republic and pre-Renaissance Italian cities

“…Economic globalization has frequently been blamed for generating stress on local societies and economies, and has led to higher levels of inequality in many cases. The spread of market capitalism that often accompanies globalization has destroyed the structural integrity of local economies (Clausen 2010;Mousseau 2002Mousseau -2003Nieman 2011). Traditional economic systems have frequently been distinguished by apparently high levels of inequality, but they also had expectations of reciprocity that included obligations for the well-to-do and provisions for the less well-to-do (Sturtevant 1976, 36-40).…”

“…Such proximity can generate tensions and lead to violence. Studies have found that civil wars have been associated with increased levels of globalization (Nieman 2011). A number of factors can contribute to increased levels of globalization; the recent increases resulted from what those valuing modernity would see as a favourable conjunction of technological, political and economic circumstances (Castells 2000, 104).…”

Globalization and Social Transition

“…Nieman (2011: 282) provides a shorthand version of this cost-bene t logic, arguing that "globalization decreases internal violence by raising opportunity costs of joining an insurgency group." It is, however, not immediately clear why we should either expect positive income shocks to decrease the risk of con ict, as the standard liberal argument outlined above suggests, or to increase it in an equivalent way as a sudden reduction of aggregate welfare, as Nieman's (2011) initial theoretical argument implies.…”

“…"Globalization shocks" (Nieman 2011) can in this vein increase the risk of civil war, although a sudden closing of the economy might be more harmful than an abrupt liberalization (Wiesehomeier, et al 2009). As foreign economic liberalization played a key role in the policy prescriptions advocated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under the banner of the "Washington Consensus," such shocks could also be traced back to the austerity measures governments of indebted countries agreed to impose in exchange for IMF loans.…”