Shirts Today, Skins Tomorrow

Cunningham, Kathleen Gallagher; Bakke, Kristin M.; Seymour, Lee J. M.

doi:10.1177/0022002711429697

Cited by 161 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 49 publications

(70 reference statements)

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“…It also alters the targets of violence, redirecting violence away from the state the movement is challenging and back towards rival organizations. 54 Variation in the type of fragmentation suggests unique hypotheses that connect fragmentation to infighting. We focus on the probability and pattern of infighting: probability refers to the likelihood that at any given time organizations in the same movement will engage in armed conflict with one another; pattern indicates who fights whom and with what consequences in terms of the spread and extent of violence.…”

Section: Implications: Hypotheses On Fragmentation and Infightingmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Plague of Initials: Fragmentation, Cohesion, and Infighting in Civil Wars

Bakke¹,

Cunningham²,

Seymour³

2012

Perspect. polit.

Self Cite

163

111

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How do we conceptualize the fragmentation of internally divided movements? And how does variation in fragmentation affect the probability and patterns of infighting? The internal politics of non-state groups have received increasing attention, with recent research demonstrating the importance of cohesion and fragmentation for understanding conflict dynamics. Yet there is little consensus on how to conceptualize fragmentation, the concept at the center of this agenda, with authors using different definitions and measures. In this paper we conceptualize fragmentation along three constitutive dimensions: the number of organizations in the movement; the degree of institutionalization across these organizations; and the distribution of power among them. We then show how variation across these dimensions can explain variation in important conflict processes, focusing on infighting.

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Section: Implications: Hypotheses On Fragmentation and Infightingmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Plague of Initials: Fragmentation, Cohesion, and Infighting in Civil Wars

Bakke¹,

Cunningham²,

Seymour³

2012

Perspect. polit.

Self Cite

163

111

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Clearly, there are limitations in the extent to which we can make claims of whether the proposed dynamics are the only logic driving fighting duration. As Cunningham, Bakke and Seymour (2012) highlight, it is very likely that "dual contests" are taking place simultaneously, which provide incentives for both cooperation and competition among rebel organizations. However, in aggregate our empirical findings suggest that complementarities behavior outweighs substitution dynamics in the context of civil conflicts.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A network approach to rebel fighting durations in civil wars

Metternich¹,

Wucherpfennig²

2019

Preprint

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Recent research on multi-actor civil wars highlights that rebel organizations condition their conflict behavior on that of other rebel organizations, with competition and free-riding constituting the core theoretical mechanisms. We provide a new actorcentric approach to explicitly model strategic interdependence in multi-actor civil wars. We argue that rebel organizations have incentives to remain mobilized until the end of a conflict to maintain their power to negotiate, power to spoil, power to enforce, and power to protect. This induces strategic complements that dominate duration dynamics in multiactor conflicts. Based on a network game theoretic model, we derive a spatial econometric framework that allows for a direct test of strategic interdependence. We find that the estimated duration interdependence is positive, but partially offset in secessionist conflicts where the public goods nature of the incompatibility also induces strategic substitution effects.Date: February 25, 2020 Version 2.01. We are indebted to Jude Hays for initial hints and inspiration on the setup of the statistical model. We thank Lars-

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“…Their findings support the argument that although the conflict behaviour of individual rebel factions might often seem to be at odds with their preferences in the wider struggle with the state, it can be perfectly consistent with their internal struggle for power. 71 In both contests legitimacy -or 'the acceptance […] of an existing social order' 72 -among local communities and a movement's rank and file is key for rebel leaders. This is because popular insurgency relies on local communities for intelligence, recruits, food, taxes, and shelter for challenging a militarily superior state army.…”

Section: From Rebels To Businessmen and Backmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ashes of co-optation: from armed group fragmentation to the rebuilding of popular insurgency in Myanmar

Brenner¹

2015

Conflict, Security & Development

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This paper argues that attempts to buy insurgency out of violence can achieve temporary stability but risk to produce new conflict. While co-optation with economic incentives might work in parts of a movement, it can spark ripple effects in others. These unanticipated developments result from the interactions of differently situated elite and non-elite actors, which can create a momentum of their own in driving collective behaviour. This paper develops this argument by analysing the reescalation of armed conflict between the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) and Myanmar's armed forces after a 17-year-long ceasefire broke down in 2011. After years of mutual enrichment and collaboration between rebel and state elites and near organisational collapse, the insurgency's new-found resolve and capacity is particularly puzzling. Based on extensive field research, this article explains why and how the state's attempt to co-opt rebel leaders with economic incentives resulted in group fragmentation, loss of leadership legitimacy, increased factional contestation, growing resentments among local communities and the movement's rank and file, and ultimately the rebuilding of popular resistance from within.

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Shirts Today, Skins Tomorrow

Cited by 161 publications

References 49 publications

A Plague of Initials: Fragmentation, Cohesion, and Infighting in Civil Wars

A Plague of Initials: Fragmentation, Cohesion, and Infighting in Civil Wars

A network approach to rebel fighting durations in civil wars

Ashes of co-optation: from armed group fragmentation to the rebuilding of popular insurgency in Myanmar

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