Shared rivers and conflict – A reconsideration

Brochmann, Marit; Gleditsch, Nils Petter

doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2012.11.001

Cited by 90 publications

(74 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Our analysis provides a different view of the issue by revealing that 932 million people (33% of the total transboundary population) are dependent on upstream water to avoid possible stress because of their own water use and 464 million people (17% of the total transboundary population) are dependent on upstream water to avoid possible shortage (Table 2). Along with previous work, including broader discussion of hydro-political dependency (Brochmann and Gleditsch 2012, Gleick 2014, Jägerskog and Zeitoun 2009, Mirumachi 2015, Mirumachi 2013, Wolf 1998, Wolf 1999, Wolf 2007 , our analysis reinforces that it is important to consider how upstream inflows help to avoid water scarcity and affect water use and management.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 76%

“…Thus, 'Hydro-political dependency' in the transboundary river basin becomes an important geopolitical issue affecting the 45 power relation between riparian countries, and potentially sovereignty at national level (Brochmann and Gleditsch 2012, Gleick 2014, Jägerskog and Zeitoun 2009, Mirumachi 2015, Mirumachi 2013, Wolf 1998, Wolf 1999, Wolf 2007 . It has already been recognized that upstream water use has considerable impact on downstream water scarcity by some regional and global studies (Munia et al 2016, Nepal et al 2014, Scott et al 2003, Veldkamp et al 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We are aware that water scarcity can be socially induced where social systems rather than climatic or hydrological factors are determining, disadvantaging groups within society, often those marginalised (Mehta 2013). However, as a first step to assessing global conditions of SBAs we focus on thresholds of physical scarcity following existing studies (Brown and Matlock 2011, Kummu et al 2010, Porkka et al 2012. We note that other indicators could be substituted in future work.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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How downstream sub-basins depend on upstream inflows to avoid scarcity: typology and global analysis of transboundary rivers

Munia¹,

Guillaume²,

Mirumachi³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Countries sharing river basins are often dependent upon water originating outside their boundaries; meaning that without that upstream water, water scarcity may occur, with flow-on implications for water use and management. We develop a formalisation of this concept using water stress and shortage as indicators of water scarcity, and including both persistent 15 and occasional scarcity. Dependency occurs if water from upstream is needed to avoid either persistent or occasional water scarcity. This can be diagnosed by comparing different types of water availability on which a sub-basin relies, starting with reliable local runoff (available even in a dry year), followed by less reliable local water (available in the wet year), reliable dry year inflows from possible upstream area, and finally less reliable wet year inflows from upstream. At the same time, possible upstream water withdrawals reduce available water downstream, influencing the latter two water availabilities. In this paper, 20we further present a typology describing how scarcity and dependency evolve in transboundary river basins, and use this typology for a global analysis of transboundary river basins at the scale of sub-basin areas (SBAs). Four groups of SBAs are identified that experience scarcity and dependency differently depending on their i) location in the basin, and ii) hydro-climate characteristics, specifically the level of reliable support provided by natural upstream inflows. Each group has its own set of transitions in scarcity and dependency category, driven by changes in local water demand and/or upstream withdrawals. Our 25 results show that almost 932 million people (33% of the total transboundary population) live in SBAs that are dependent on upstream water to avoid stress because of their own water use, while 464 million people (17% of the total transboundary population) live in SBAs dependent on upstream water to avoid possible shortage. The identification of groups and their transitions enables discussion of the pathways SBAs might take in future, potentially contributing to further refined analysis of inter and intrabasin hydro-political power relations and strategic planning of management practices in transboundary basins. 30

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 76%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

How downstream sub-basins depend on upstream inflows to avoid scarcity: typology and global analysis of transboundary rivers

Munia¹,

Guillaume²,

Mirumachi³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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show abstract

“…Still, several studies find countries sharing river basins are at an increased risk of conflict relative to other dyads, or pairs of states (Gleditsch, Furlong, Hegre, Lacina, & Owen, 2006;Toset, Gleditsch, & Hegre, 2000). The most recent study on the subject (Brochmann & Gleditsch, 2012) finds river sharing is almost omnipresent, and does not increase the propensity for conflict between countries beyond the increase in conflict propensity due to proximity, i.e., having a shared border. However, Brochmann and Gleditsch find upstream/downstream relationships e relationships where countries have asymmetric ability to affect the flow of water to other states due to their upstream position e to be more conflictual.…”

Section: Water and Interstate Conflictmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We jointly model the effects of trends (mean precipitation level and precipitation variability), and triggers (year-to-year changes in precipitation), on militarized interstate disputes, basing our models on reanalyses of Tir and Stinnett (2012) and Brochmann and Gleditsch (2012). Our main findings are two.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends and triggers redux: Climate change, rainfall, and interstate conflict

Devlin

Hendrix

2014

Political Geography

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Conflict and cooperation in the water‐security nexus: a global comparative analysis of river basins under climate change

2016

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Adequate fresh water availability is an important factor for human security in many parts of the world. In transboundary river basins, decreased water supply due to local environmental change and global climate change and increased water demand due to growing populations and continued economic development can aggravate water scarcity. Contrary to the claim that water scarcity may result in an increased risk of armed conflict, there is no simple relationship between freshwater availability and violent conflict. Other crucial factors need to be taken into consideration that also directly influence resource availability and personal human well-being. In this review, we assess the scientific literature on conflict and cooperation in transboundary river systems. Most international river basins are already jointly managed by the riparians, but successful management in times of climate change necessitates the inclusion of more factors besides mere allocation schemes. On the basis of a substantial body of literature on the management of transboundary watersheds, an analytical framework of the water-security nexus is developed that integrates the physical and socioeconomic pathways connecting water availability with conflict or cooperation. This framework is subsequently applied to two transboundary river basins-the Nile River and the Syr Darya/Amu Darya-as they represent two world regions that could become future water hot spots. An improved understanding of the developments leading to water conflicts and their interaction can help to successfully reduce the risk of water conflicts in these regions and to move toward increased cooperation among the riparians of transboundary river systems.

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Shared rivers and conflict – A reconsideration

Cited by 90 publications

References 38 publications

How downstream sub-basins depend on upstream inflows to avoid scarcity: typology and global analysis of transboundary rivers

How downstream sub-basins depend on upstream inflows to avoid scarcity: typology and global analysis of transboundary rivers

Trends and triggers redux: Climate change, rainfall, and interstate conflict

Conflict and cooperation in the water‐security nexus: a global comparative analysis of river basins under climate change

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