Conflict and cooperation in the water‐security nexus: a global comparative analysis of river basins under climate change

Abstract

Adequate fresh water availability is an important factor for human security in many parts of the world. In transboundary river basins, decreased water supply due to local environmental change and global climate change and increased water demand due to growing populations and continued economic development can aggravate water scarcity. Contrary to the claim that water scarcity may result in an increased risk of armed conflict, there is no simple relationship between freshwater availability and violent conflict. Other crucial factors need to be taken into consideration that also directly influence resource availability and personal human well-being. In this review, we assess the scientific literature on conflict and cooperation in transboundary river systems. Most international river basins are already jointly managed by the riparians, but successful management in times of climate change necessitates the inclusion of more factors besides mere allocation schemes. On the basis of a substantial body of literature on the management of transboundary watersheds, an analytical framework of the water-security nexus is developed that integrates the physical and socioeconomic pathways connecting water availability with conflict or cooperation. This framework is subsequently applied to two transboundary river basins-the Nile River and the Syr Darya/Amu Darya-as they represent two world regions that could become future water hot spots. An improved understanding of the developments leading to water conflicts and their interaction can help to successfully reduce the risk of water conflicts in these regions and to move toward increased cooperation among the riparians of transboundary river systems.

Climate change vulnerability, water resources and social implications in North Africa

“…Two of these conflicts are classified as "internationalized internal," meaning that the conflict is between the state government and internal opposition groups with intervention from at least one other state (UCDP/PRIO 2018). While there is a potential for international political tensions and disputes between the riparian states of the Nile river, for example, when Egypt feels threatened by increasing water demand in upstream countries like Ethiopia, shared international water bodies are generally a source of cooperation rather than conflict (Link et al 2016;Wolf 2007).…”

Water Security in Times of Climate Change and Intractability: Reconciling Conflict by Transforming Security Concerns into Equity Concerns

“…In the literature, it is commonly assumed that post-normal spaces offer promises of more desirable and innovative governance constellations and or climate adaptation actions [52][53][54][55][56]. Building on such claims, the water security discourse and its underlying scientific narratives on various types of leadership in the Anthropocene go on to suggest the need for a "[f]undamental reorientation and restructuring of national and international institutions" (Biermann [57] citing the 2012 State of the Planet Declaration).…”

Progress in household water insecurity metrics: a cross‐disciplinary approach

“…(3) geopolitics and international relations [66][67][68][69][70][71][72][73] ; and (4) vulnerability, adaptation, and risk to global change. 46,63,64,[74][75][76][77][78] Despite such conceptual diversity and even ambiguity, interest in water availability, affordability, quality, and its social and economic dimension influence research agendas across disciplines, including agriculture, law, anthropology, geography, economics, biomedicine, public health, and public policy.…”