Sex differences in incumbents’ turnover odds: the role of preference vote performance and the party leader’s sex

Slegten, Caroline; Heyndels, Bruno

doi:10.1057/s41269-021-00214-7

Cited by 2 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…The two 2 × 2 sub-tables presented in Table 1 summarize the ultimate turnover fates of all members of Congress who are seated during a given year. However, there are potentially many additional classifications of turnover, e.g., gender (Slegten & Heyndels, 2021), minorities (Fraga & Hassell, 2020). A total of 20 seats were controlled by one party over the course of the nearly 75 years of the 1980 Senate life cycle (12 Democrats; 8 Republicans).…”

Section: Party Seat Incumbent Transitionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Congressional symmetry: years remaining mirror years served in the U.S. House and Senate

Carey

Eriksen

Rao

2023

Genus

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Our overarching goal in this paper was to both test and identify applications for a fundamental theorem of replacement-level populations known as the Stationary Population Identity (SPI), a mathematical model that equates the fraction of a population age x and the fraction with x years to live. Since true stationarity is virtually non-existent in human populations as well as in populations of non-human species, we used historical data on the memberships in both chambers of the U.S. Congress as populations. We conceived their fixed numbers (e.g., 100 Senators; 435 Representatives) as stationary populations, and their years served and years remaining as the equivalent of life lived and life remaining. Our main result was the affirmation of the mathematical prediction—i.e., the robust symmetry of years served and years remaining in Congress over the approximately 230 years of its existence (1789–2022). A number of applications emerged from this regularity and the distributional patterns therein including (1) new metrics such as Congressional half-life and other quantiles (e.g., 95% turnover); (2) predictability of the distribution of member’s years remaining; (3) the extraordinary information content of a single number—the mean number of years served [i.e., derive birth (b) and death (d) rates; use of d as exponential rate parameter for model life tables]; (4) the concept of and metrics associated with period-specific populations (Congress); (5) Congressional life cycle concept with Formation, Growth, Senescence and Extinction Phases; and (6) longitudinal party transition rates for 100% Life Cycle turnover (Democrat/Republican), i.e., each seat from predecessor party-to-incumbent party and from incumbent party-to-successor party. Although our focus is on the use of historical data for Congressional members, we believe that most of the results are general and thus both relevant and applicable to all types of stationary or quasi-stationary populations including to the future world of zero population growth (ZPG).

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Section: Party Seat Incumbent Transitionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Congressional symmetry: years remaining mirror years served in the U.S. House and Senate

Carey

Eriksen

Rao

2023

Genus

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“…In proportional systems, the candidate recruitment process is related to individual and party contextual determinants (Norris 2004;Ware 1996). Although all these candidate level variables have proven to be important drivers, party variation deserves our attention as well (Matland and Studlar, 2004;Pedersen, 2000;Salvati and Verseci, 2018;Slegten and Heyndels, 2021). Parties are typically thought to be strategic actors.…”

Section: Party's Selectoral Opportunity Structure and Candidate Turnovermentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We aim to shed light on the dynamics in candidate turnover by means of a longitudinal study of career termination of 11,678 candidates on electoral lists presented by 11 political parties, participating in 32 parliamentary elections for the regional, national or European level organised in Flanders (Belgium) between 1987 and 2019. Taking individual candidate careers as unit of analysis offers a disaggregated perspective on candidate turnover, in the sense that aggregate candidate turnover results from all individual electoral career paths taken together (Slegten and Heyndels, 2021). We argue that individual-level career data about the time candidates spend engaged in legislative campaign activities helps us more fully understand the relationship between both individual and party characteristics on the one hand and collective institutional (in)stability captured by candidate turnover on the other hand.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A longitudinal analysis of party level candidate turnover drivers in the flexible-list PR system of Flanders (Belgium) (1987–2019)

2022

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This article identifies the party dynamics that drive candidate turnover, yielding crucial insights in the recruitment behaviour and nomination strategies of political parties. Inspired by the seminal demand and supply model of political recruitment, we contend that several dynamics trigger or discourage parties to renew their lists and increase or decrease the availability of candidates. A 'selectoral opportunity structure' consisting of these dynamics could imply discontinuity in the candidate selection process.Multilevel survival analysis is applied to estimate the odds of selectoral career termination for 11,678 candidates running for parliamentary election in Flanders (Belgium) between 1987 and 2019. The results suggest substantial career termination differences between political parties, driven by multiple aspects of the selectoral opportunity structure: electoral swings, party members and transformational party events. Our results attest to the importance of including party level characteristics and further exploring system level effects when studying candidate turnover in future research.

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Sex differences in incumbents’ turnover odds: the role of preference vote performance and the party leader’s sex

Cited by 2 publications

References 34 publications

Congressional symmetry: years remaining mirror years served in the U.S. House and Senate

Congressional symmetry: years remaining mirror years served in the U.S. House and Senate

A longitudinal analysis of party level candidate turnover drivers in the flexible-list PR system of Flanders (Belgium) (1987–2019)

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