A longitudinal analysis of party level candidate turnover drivers in the flexible-list PR system of Flanders (Belgium) (1987–2019)

Abstract

This article identifies the party dynamics that drive candidate turnover, yielding crucial insights in the recruitment behaviour and nomination strategies of political parties. Inspired by the seminal demand and supply model of political recruitment, we contend that several dynamics trigger or discourage parties to renew their lists and increase or decrease the availability of candidates. A 'selectoral opportunity structure' consisting of these dynamics could imply discontinuity in the candidate selection process.Multilevel survival analysis is applied to estimate the odds of selectoral career termination for 11,678 candidates running for parliamentary election in Flanders (Belgium) between 1987 and 2019. The results suggest substantial career termination differences between political parties, driven by multiple aspects of the selectoral opportunity structure: electoral swings, party members and transformational party events. Our results attest to the importance of including party level characteristics and further exploring system level effects when studying candidate turnover in future research.