Severe convective storms in a changing climate

Gensini, Vittorio A.

doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-822700-8.00007-x

Cited by 12 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 154 publications

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“…These simulations provide finer resolution-both spatial and temporally-information compared to GCMs and will continue to aid our understanding of the future of SCSs. Advancements in these simulations with an ensemble approach, such as using multiple GCM inputs, a variety of RCPs, different microphysical schemes, increased temporal and decreased spatial dimensions, use of multiple dynamical cores and a varying level of initial conditions and perturbations are needed to further our relatively limited understanding of future perils (Gensini, 2021). Future simulations, and the distillation of results from these datasets, will assist water-sensitive industries, governmental agencies, policymakers and the public in mitigating and building resilience in an era of rapid environmental and societal change.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Results suggest an overall increase in days supportive for SCSs in the future; however, the distribution of SCS populations may vary due to changes in forcing, moisture, convective inhibition (CIN), overlapping of ingredients (e.g., CIN with convective available potential energy [CAPE]), convection initiation and overall sustenance of SCSs (Ashley et al, 2023;Hoogewind et al, 2017;Pilguj et al, 2022;Taszarek et al, 2021). Research suggests SCSs and their associated severe perils will be more frequent and intense with an expansion in their seasonality by the end-of-the-21st-century (Trapp et al, 2011(Trapp et al, , 2019Gensini & Mote, 2014, 2015Trapp & Hoogewind, 2016;Hoogewind et al, 2017;Rasmussen et al, 2020;Gensini, 2021;Ashley et al, 2023). Should these projections come to fruition, a plethora of environmental and societal factors such as habitation loss, economic cost and casualties, will be at risk.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Despite previous research into supercells and their precipitation, to our knowledge, no work has constructed a long‐term climatology of supercell precipitation. Additionally, while studies have sought to understand historical and future changes to extreme precipitation (see reviews by Kunkel et al, 2013; Prein, Liu, et al, 2017; Prein, Rasmussen, et al, 2017; Reidmiller et al, 2018) along with SCSs and their environments (see reviews by Brooks, 2013; Tippett et al, 2015; Allen, 2018; Gensini, 2021), no efforts have explored the precipitation produced specifically by supercells from a climate change perspective. For these reasons, this study employs convection‐permitting, dynamically downscaled simulation output to assess how ACC may affect supercell precipitation in the CONUS by comparing two end‐of‐21st‐century scenarios to a late 20th‐century epoch.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Supercell precipitation contribution to the United States hydroclimate

Zeeb,

Ashley,

Haberlie

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This research seeks to understand simulated supercell precipitation characteristics across the conterminous United States (CONUS) using high‐resolution, convection‐permitting, dynamically downscaled simulations for three 15‐year epochs. Epochs include a historical end‐of‐20th‐century period (1990–2005) and two end‐of‐21st‐century (2085–2100) scenarios for intermediate and pessimistic greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. Simulated updraft helicity, which measures the corkscrew flow within a storm's updraft, is used as a proxy for supercells. An algorithm tracks and catalogues updraft helicity swaths that, when buffered, are used to acquire simulated precipitation from supercells. The historical epoch provides a baseline climatology of supercell precipitation for a contemporary climate, which is then compared against the two future epochs to assess how supercell precipitation may change during the 21st century. Despite their relatively small size, supercells provide critical precipitation to the Wheat and Corn Belts, large expanses of CONUS pasture and rangeland, regional aquifers and several large river basins. Many areas in the central CONUS receive upwards of 3%–6% of their annual and 5%–8% of their warm‐season precipitation from these storms. Results suggest that precipitation contribution from supercells will decrease in the future across most of the High Plains and Central and Northern Great Plains with robust increases likely across the south‐central and Southeast regions. Supercell precipitation rates are expected to increase for large portions of the CONUS by the end‐of‐the‐21st‐century, suggesting a growing threat for flash floods from these storms as they become more efficient precipitation producers. This research provides an initial perspective on the magnitude of supercell precipitation and potential changes to this important hydrologic input to assist water‐sensitive industries, private and public insurance markets, agriculture entities, as well as inform plans to mitigate and build resilience to rapid environmental and societal change.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Supercell precipitation contribution to the United States hydroclimate

Zeeb,

Ashley,

Haberlie

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Excellent reviews of severe storms and climate change across methodologies are provided in Brooks (2013); Tippett et al. (2015); V. V. A. Gensini (2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Biases in CMIP6 Historical U.S. Severe Convective Storm Environments Driven by Biases in Mean‐State Near‐Surface Moist Static Energy

Chavas

2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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This work evaluates how well Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 models reproduce the climatology of North American severe convective storm (SCS) environments in ERA5 reanalysis and examines what drives biases across models. Biases in spring SCS environments vary widely in magnitude and spatial pattern, though most models do well in reproducing the climatological pattern and a few (MPI and CNRM) also reproduce the overall magnitude. SCS biases are driven by biases in extreme convective available potential energy. These biases are ultimately found to be driven by biases in mean‐state near‐surface moist static energy, indicating that the SCS environments depend strongly on the near‐surface mean state. Results are similar for fall, but not summer or winter when free‐tropospheric biases are also important. Biases differ strongly across parent models but weakly across child models of the same parent. These outcomes help identify models well‐suited for studying climate effects on SCS environments.

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“…Trends in thunderstorm environments have also been examined at length, both in reanalysis datasets (Gensini & Brooks, 2018; Riemann‐Campe et al., 2009; Tang et al., 2019; Taszarek, Allen, Brooks, et al., 2021; Taszarek, Allen, Marchio, & Brooks, 2021) and GCM output (Diffenbaugh et al., 2013; Lepore et al., 2021; Trapp et al., 2009; Trapp, Diffenbaugh, et al., 2007). In general, these studies have reported either observed or projected increases in instability over time, which suggests an attendant increase in thunderstorm activity in the 21st century (Gensini, 2021). However, a crucial limitation of these works is that GCMs and other coarse resolution models cannot resolve individual thunderstorms and important mesoscale processes that lead to their development (Kendon et al., 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thunderstorm Activity Under Intermediate and Extreme Climate Change Scenarios

Haberlie

Ashley

Battisto

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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Assessing how increasing greenhouse gas concentrations may modify regional climates is an ongoing challenge. Relatively little work has examined how climate change may influence processes related to regional thunderstorm activity. This is important to consider in areas where thunderstorms are important for maintaining regional hydroclimates. This study focuses on three convection‐allowing climate simulations—namely, a retrospective simulation (1990–2005) and two possible climate change scenarios (2085–2100)—with domains encompassing the conterminous United States. Regional and seasonal variability is noted in the response of thunderstorm activity as measured by thresholds in simulated radar reflectivity factor in the two climate change scenarios. A decrease in thunderstorm activity is projected for the Southern Plains, whereas the Southeast and Midwest experience an increase in thunderstorm activity. An examination of environmental parameters related to thunderstorm activity reveals an overall increase in convective instability but spatially varying changes in convective inhibition.

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Severe convective storms in a changing climate

Cited by 12 publications

References 154 publications

Supercell precipitation contribution to the United States hydroclimate

Supercell precipitation contribution to the United States hydroclimate

Biases in CMIP6 Historical U.S. Severe Convective Storm Environments Driven by Biases in Mean‐State Near‐Surface Moist Static Energy

Thunderstorm Activity Under Intermediate and Extreme Climate Change Scenarios

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