Thunderstorm Activity Under Intermediate and Extreme Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

Assessing how increasing greenhouse gas concentrations may modify regional climates is an ongoing challenge. Relatively little work has examined how climate change may influence processes related to regional thunderstorm activity. This is important to consider in areas where thunderstorms are important for maintaining regional hydroclimates. This study focuses on three convection‐allowing climate simulations—namely, a retrospective simulation (1990–2005) and two possible climate change scenarios (2085–2100)—with domains encompassing the conterminous United States. Regional and seasonal variability is noted in the response of thunderstorm activity as measured by thresholds in simulated radar reflectivity factor in the two climate change scenarios. A decrease in thunderstorm activity is projected for the Southern Plains, whereas the Southeast and Midwest experience an increase in thunderstorm activity. An examination of environmental parameters related to thunderstorm activity reveals an overall increase in convective instability but spatially varying changes in convective inhibition.

Decomposing the Precipitation Response to Climate Change in Convection Allowing Simulations Over the Conterminous United States

“…Using the same data set, Haberlie et al. (2022) found significant increases in most unstable CIN for much of the CONUS. These differences exceeded −25 J kg −1 across large portions of the central CONUS and were generally below the −25 J kg −1 threshold within much of the eastern CONUS.…”

Supercell precipitation contribution to the United States hydroclimate

“…Seasonal increases in supercell volumetric precipitation are expected for all seasons except summer, which decreases by 14.3% (13%) under FUTR 4.5 and 21.4% (26.1%) under FUTR 8.5. Indeed, projected declines in supercell precipitation volumetric contributions are most notable in June and July, possibly due to the increased capping and subsequent reduced event populations found during the mid‐summer in the two climate change scenarios (Ashley et al, 2023; Haberlie et al, 2022). The most robust increase in supercell precipitation volumes, on the other hand, occurs during spring, with increases of 58.3% (46.3%) under FUTR 4.5 and 83.3% (70.7%) under FUTR 8.5.…”

“…This intensification of supercell precipitation cores is further exacerbated through significant increases in the cumulative areal coverage of extreme supercell precipitation rates, which are projected to be two to five times the coverage found in HIST. These expected changes in precipitation characteristics are amplified by projected increases in both CAPE and precipitable water in future climates (Ashley et al, 2023;Haberlie et al, 2022;Held & Soden, 2006;Rasmussen et al, 2020;Trapp & Hoogewind, 2016;Trenberth, 1999;Trenberth et al, 2003). Specifically, the expected future increase in low-level water vapour will permit any updraft to ingest more water vapour and, thus, enhance both precipitation rates and total accumulations (Beatty et al, 2008;Doswell, 1998;Doswell et al, 1996;Hitchens & Brooks, 2013;Moller et al, 1990Moller et al, , 1994.…”

Cap. 25. Grandes Llanuras del Norte. En: La Quinta Evaluación Nacional del Clima

“…Las proyecciones para finales de este siglo utilizando el escenario A2 del Informe Especial sobre Escenarios de Emisiones (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, SRES) (un escenario con un aumento de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, similares a las del RCP8.5) indican más días de granizo y un aumento del tamaño potencial, con el correspondiente aumento de la energía cinética acumulada y del potencial de daños 34 . La comparación de las proyecciones de los escenarios intermedio (RCP4.5) y muy alto (RCP8.5) para la convección severa indica que las tendencias proyectadas para RCP4.5 van en la misma dirección con una amplitud menor en comparación con RCP8.5 35 .…”

“…La falta de observaciones a largo plazo de eventos de granizo a pequeña escala y poco frecuentes y las deficiencias de los modelos de alta resolución crean incertidumbre al predecir futuros eventos en zonas específicas 28,29 , por lo que los modelos se basan en las tendencias de los entornos favorables al granizo 30,31,32,33,34,35,300 . Las proyecciones de convección severa en la investigación actual se han centrado en gran medida en un escenario muy alto (RCP8.5).…”