Settlements, Outcomes, and the Recurrence of Conflict

Abstract

Despite the hope that the resolution of one militarized dispute will bring peace to a dyad, these conflicts often recur. This recurrence of conflict is particularly important because subsequent disputes within a dyad tend to be more severe than previous ones. However, the factors leading to recurrent conflict remain a matter of debate. While some argue that the settlement of a dispute has a significant impact on post-conflict relations, others argue that the outcome of a dispute is the most important determinant of post-conflict stability. Although evidence has been found to support both views, the relative impact of dispute settlements and outcomes has not been satisfactorily determined. Accordingly, this article simultaneously examines the relationship between settlements, outcomes, and conflict recurrence through survival analyses of the periods of peace following 2,973 dyadic militarized interstate disputes between 1816 and 2001. The authors find that although settlement type is an important predictor of recurrent conflict, with imposed settlements being the most stable, outcome type has no significant effects on post-dispute peace duration. The article concludes with a preliminary analysis of the factors that lead to the varying forms of settlement.

External Subsidies and Lasting Peace

“…On the value of decisive outcomes, see also Senese and Quackenbush (2003) and Quackenbush and Venteicher (2008).…”

‘Give War A Chance’: All-Out War as a Means of Ending Conflict in the Cases of Sri Lanka and Colombia

“…81 Quackenbush argues that imposed settlements can be pacifying and more 'stable' compared to negotiated peace. 82 Therefore, research on the existence of this kind of military imposed peace settlements can shed light on their real stability and nature, as neither peace agreements nor ceasefires significantly reduce the risk of relapse into violent conflict as much as victories do. 83 Based on this evidence, it appears plausible to support the idea that war in some cases could save lives in the long term.…”

Terminated or Just Interrupted? How the End of a Rivalry Plants the Seeds for Future Conflict

“…With stalemates failing to have theoretical importance, the key to preventing rivalry recurrence is to have a "congruent" rivalry termination-one in which the outcome of the rivalry (who wins) matches the form of the settlement. The recurring conflict literature, which has a similar focus to rivalry recurrence, emphasizes the method through which the last dispute was settled, with brief mention of the military outcome of that dispute (e.g., Grieco, 2001;Quackenbush and Venteicher, 2008). To the extent that both factors are mentioned, it is to show that certain outcomes are generally followed by certain settlements: victory by an imposed settlement, compromise by a negotiated settlement, and a stalemate by the lack of any settlement.…”