Setting tolerance limits for statistical project control using earned value management

Colin, Jeroen; Vanhoucke, Mario

doi:10.1016/j.omega.2014.06.001

Cited by 70 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…In these studies, the baseline schedule is considered as a point of reference throughout the execution of the project, and that together with the real-schedule performance and the cost associated with it, are compared relative to the baseline estimates. In the MCS for such project-management studies, the individual activities are given a duration that might deviate from the estimated duration that was used for the construction of the baseline schedule (Vanhoucke 2010b(Vanhoucke , 2011Elshaer 2013;Colin and Vanhoucke 2014). The relation to real-life projects is evident, since only very seldom a project will go exactly as planned in terms of the durations of the individual activities and their associated costs.…”

Section: Focus On the Relative Duration Of Activitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This will not be considered further, as this is only relevant for when an actual simulation model is proposed. A recent application of linear association in project management simulation can be found in Colin and Vanhoucke (2014). Here, the primary concern lies with the calibration of the inputs to such simulation studies.…”

Section: Focus On the Relative Duration Of Activitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Owing to the advances in information technology of the last few decades, simulation studies now stand at the core of newly developed techniques in project management Elshaer 2013;Wauters and Vanhoucke 2014), and serve to test them and quantify their performance in large computational experiments (Colin and Vanhoucke 2014;Vanhoucke 2010a). In these simulations, the stochastic activity durations for the activity networks are drawn from a predefined distributional model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Empirical Perspective on Activity Durations for Project-Management Simulation Studies

Colin

Vanhoucke

2016

J. Constr. Eng. Manage.

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Simulation has played an important role in project-management studies of the last decades, but in order for them to produce practical results, a realistic distribution model for activity durations is indispensable. The construction industry often has needed historical records of project executions, to serve as inputs to the distribution models, but a clearly outlined calibration procedure is not always readily available, nor are their results readily interpretable. This study seeks to illustrate how data from the construction industry can be used to derive realistic input distributions. Therefore, the Parkinson simulation model with a lognormal core is applied to a large empirical dataset from the literature and the results are described. From a discussion of these results, an empirical classification of project executions is presented. Three possible uses are presented for the calibration procedure and the classification in project management simulation studies. These were validated using a case study of a construction company.

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Section: Focus On the Relative Duration Of Activitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Focus On the Relative Duration Of Activitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Empirical Perspective on Activity Durations for Project-Management Simulation Studies

Colin

Vanhoucke

2016

J. Constr. Eng. Manage.

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“…Narbaev and De Marco (2014) attempted to overcome limitations of the traditional EVM and proposed an earned schedule-based regression model to improve cost estimate at completion. Colin and Vanhoucke (2014) proposed statistical project control procedure which sets tolerance limits to improve discriminative power between progress situations that are either statistically likely or less likely to occur under the project baseline schedule. Lipke et al (2009) also applied statistical methods to EVM and ES performance indexes and found the proposed forecasting method to be suffi ciently reliable.…”

Section: Figure 2 Variances and Indexes Used In Earned Value Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of earned value based metrics on small-scale construction projects

Avlijaš¹,

Avlijaš²,

Heleta³

2015

Eur J Appl Econ

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Abstract:The application of earned value based metrics in Serbia lags significantly behind other developed economies, regardless of the fact that is has proven to be a very useful and flexible tool for prediction of total cost and time of construction projects. This paper aims to contribute to the wider use of earned value management (EVM) as a practical metrics that can be used to track performance of small-scale construction projects. Literature review reveals how the method evolved as a fundamental tool for construction projects monitoring and refers to specific issues concerning its implementation. In order to enable practitioners to realize all advantages of earned value based performance monitoring of small-scale construction projects, the applicability of such methodology is demonstrated through a case study.

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“…In this research, the tolerance limits are derived from subjective estimates for the activity durations of the project. Tolerance limits are set for statistical project control using EVM [17].…”

Section: Introduction and Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Integrated Efficiency–Risk Approach in Sustainable Project Control

et al. 2017

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Abstract:The lack of integrated project control techniques covering both qualitative and quantitative indices is one of the most important reasons leading to unfinished projects under predetermined schedules and expected budgets. Two modern techniques proposed in project control-the critical chain method and buffer management (CCM/BM), and the earned value analysis or earned value management and earned schedule (EVM/ES)-both have advantages and disadvantages. Goldratt proposed the CCM/BM method in 1997 based on the theory of constraint (TOC), but this method was not successful despite some improvements in project control because of some executive reasons. The most noteworthy constraint of this method is the management of time and time risks (use of a time buffer) of the project more than the subject. Goldratt believed that time control could be the most critical issue in project control. In other words, the overall problems associated with each project can be solved as long as the buffer time is under control and there is no need to control the other items. EVM/ES is one of the important techniques used to calculate real project development; it has been used for the integrated management of sustainable projects in recent decades. Using this technique, project managers can predict the final status of the project in terms of the necessary time and cost to finish the project. However, this method is limited by the management of the project cost and the lack of interference in the project risks. In sum, the CCM/BM method focuses on time and its risks associated with the project, thus making it advantageous to other techniques. Conversely, EVM/ES focuses on the costs or schedule with non-probabilistic assumptions, giving some interesting results. Therefore, this study aims to represent an integrated framework that considers the advantages of both CCM/BM and EVM/ES, called the efficiency-risk approach, which is implemented to control sustainable projects efficiently. This hybrid form can simultaneously control all the parameters, including both quantitative and qualitative variables, time, cost, and risk in conjunction with the project. Schedule and cost buffers of the project are derived using new formulations that provide appropriate estimations on the duration and cost for completing the sustainable projects and the relevant risks. The proposed ideas are analyzed and described through an industrial case study in the Steel Company, Isfahan, Iran.

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Setting tolerance limits for statistical project control using earned value management

Cited by 70 publications

References 55 publications

Empirical Perspective on Activity Durations for Project-Management Simulation Studies

Empirical Perspective on Activity Durations for Project-Management Simulation Studies

Application of earned value based metrics on small-scale construction projects

An Integrated Efficiency–Risk Approach in Sustainable Project Control

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