Setting the baseline for shale gas – Establishing effective sentinels for water quality impacts of unconventional hydrocarbon development

Abstract

There is a need for the development of effective baselines against which the water quality impacts of industry in general, and shale gas extraction specifically, can be assessed. The salinity, and hence the specific conductance, of fluids associated with shale gas extraction is typically many times higher that of river water. The contrast between these two water types means that testing for salinity (specific conductance) could provide an ideal sentinel for detecting environmental impact of shale gas extraction. Here, Bayesian generalised linear modelling was used to predict specific conductance across English surface waters. The modelling used existing, spot-sampled data from 2005 to 2015 from 123 sites to assess