Set-Theoretic Models of an Unmanned Aerial System for Predicting Failure-Free Factors

Abstract

The article analyzes the approaches to the creation of mathematical models focused on determining the failure-free factors of unmanned aerial systems during their operation. It is noted that many economic and social processes can be narrowed down to the problem of the choice made by their participants between several alternative (mutually exclusive or competing) options.
 Examples include the problem of consumer behavior in a competitive market in which the consumer makes investment decisions in the context of choosing between several alternative projects; selection of possible transport systems for passenger and сargo transportation; choosing among alternative opportunities for the economic growth of territories, decision-making in speculative financial markets (using instruments to buy for a rise or sell short) and others.
 To ensure the possibility of determining the predicted failure-free factors at the stage of performance evaluation by methods of functional and structural analysis, a mathematical model of the process of determining failure-free factors was developed, focused on the use of dynamic Bayesian belief networks. The proposed model takes into account the Markovian character of the operation process running, in which failures of elements and subsystems are compensated by actions to restore the system. The failure rates of UAS during performance evaluation, as well as the average integral value survival rate for the period of performance evaluation, the rate of occurrence of failures and time to failure are determined as the final failure-free factors. The model is evaluated as a necessary condition for further development of specially configured software to solve the problem of determining failure-free factors of unmanned aerial systems.