Separating effects of vegetation change and climate variability using hydrological modelling and sensitivity-based approaches

Li, Huiyun; Zhang, Yongqiang; Vaze, Jai; Ben-de, Wang

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.12.033

Cited by 131 publications

(83 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…Meanwhile, climate change is always coupled with the land cover change [13]. Climate and land cover changes result in more complex interactive relationships among precipitation changes, temperature changes, and runoff changes [14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long Term Quantification of Climate and Land Cover Change Impacts on Streamflow in an Alpine River Catchment, Northwestern China

Yin¹,

Feng²,

Yang³

et al. 2017

Sustainability

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Abstract:Quantifying the long term impacts of climate and land cover change on streamflow is of great important for sustainable water resources management in inland river basins. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was employed to simulate the streamflow in the upper reaches of Heihe River Basin, northwestern China, over the last half century. The Sequential Uncertainty Fitting algorithm (SUFI-2) was selected to calibrate and validate the SWAT model. The results showed that both Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and determination coefficient (R 2 ) were over 0.93 for calibration and validation periods, the percent bias (PBIAS) of the two periods were-3.47% and 1.81%, respectively. The precipitation, average, maximum, and minimum air temperature were all showing increasing trends, with 14.87 mm/10 years, 0.30 • C/10 years, 0.27 • C/10 year, and 0.37 • C/10 years, respectively. Runoff coefficient has increased from 0.36 (averaged during 1964 to 1988) to 0.39 (averaged during 1989 to 2013). Based on the SWAT simulation, we quantified the contribution of climate and land cover change to streamflow change, indicated that the land cover change had a positive impact on river discharge by increasing 7.12% of the streamflow during 1964 to 1988, and climate change contributed 14.08% for the streamflow increasing over last 50 years. Meanwhile, the climate change impact was intensive after 2000s. The increasing of streamflow contributed to the increasing of total streamflow by 64.1% for cold season (November to following March) and 35.9% for warm season (April to October). The results provide some references for dealing with climate and land cover change in an inland river basin for water resource management and planning.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long Term Quantification of Climate and Land Cover Change Impacts on Streamflow in an Alpine River Catchment, Northwestern China

Yin¹,

Feng²,

Yang³

et al. 2017

Sustainability

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“…However, few studies have investigated changes in hydrological processes and water quality as well as sediment yield under the impact of climate and land-use changes on a basin scale (Ward et al 2009, Tong et al 2012. To assess the hydrological and sediment impacts of environmental change, the common methods used are the paired catchment approach, statistical analysis and hydrological modelling (Li et al 2009(Li et al , 2012. Among these approaches, the hydrological method is an appealing option, because it is most suitable to be used as a part of scenario studies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of climate and land-use changes on hydrological processes and sediment yield—a case study of the Be River catchment, Vietnam

Khôi

Suetsugi

2014

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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The impact of climate and land-use changes on hydrological processes and sediment yield is investigated in the Be River catchment, Vietnam, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The sensitivity analysis, model calibration and validation indicated that the SWAT model could reasonably simulate the hydrology and sediment yield in the catchment. From this, the responses of the hydrology and sediment to climate change and land-use changes were considered. The results indicate that deforestation had increased the annual flow (by 1.2%) and sediment load (by 11.3%), and that climate change had also significantly increased the annual streamflow (by 26.3%) and sediment load (by 31.7%). Under the impact of coupled climate and land-use changes, the annual streamflow and sediment load increased by 28.0% and 46.4%, respectively. In general, during the 1978-2000 period, climate change influenced the hydrological processes in the Be River catchment more strongly than the land-use change.Key words climate change; hydrology; land-use change; sediment yield; SWAT model; Be River catchment, Vietnam Impact des changements climatiques et de l'utilisation des terres sur les processus hydrologiques et la production de sédiments-étude de cas du bassin versant de la rivière Be, Vietnam Résumé L'impact des changements du climat et de l'utilisation des terres sur les processus hydrologiques et l'apport de sédiments dans le bassin versant de la rivière Be (Vietnam) a été étudié en utilisant le modèle hydrologique SWAT. L'analyse de sensibilité, l'étalonnage et la validation des modèles indique que le modèle SWAT peut raisonnablement simuler l'hydrologie et la charge sédimentaire dans le bassin versant. C'est donc avec cet outil que les réponses de l'hydrologie et des sédiments au changement climatique et au changement d'utilisation des terres ont été étudiées. Les résultats indiquent que la déforestation a augmenté l'écoulement annuel (1,2%) et la charge sédimentaire (11,3%), et que le changement climatique a également augmenté de manière significative le débit annuel (26,3%) et la charge sédimentaire (31,7%). Sous l'impact couplé du changement climatique et du changement d'utilisation des terres, l'écoulement annuel et la charge de sédiments ont respectivement augmenté de 28% et 46,4%. En général, le changement climatique a eu une influence plus importante sur les processus hydrologiques que le changement d'utilisation des terres dans le bassin versant de la rivière Be durant la période 1978-2000.Mots clefs changement climatique ; hydrologie ; changement d'utilisation des terres ; production de sédiments ; modèle SWAT ; bassin versant de la rivière Be, Vietnam

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“…It is also a useful method for quantifying and separating the relative contributions of climate change and human activities on runoff changes (Zhang et al 2011a, Li et al 2012, Wang et al 2012. Most previous studies separating the effects of climate change and human activities only evaluate the impact of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration changes or temperature on water.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Among these methods, the analytical derivation method based on Budyko's hypothesis is clear in its theory and requires less input data (Yang and Yang 2011). The method has been widely used in previous studies and is useful for evaluating the impacts of climate change and human activities (Dooge et al 1999, Arora 2002, Zheng et al 2009, Li et al 2012.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in the water source area of Beijing, China

Xia

Zeng

et al. 2014

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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Quantitative assessment of the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff is very important for regional sustainable water resources adaptive management. In this study, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test is used to identify the trends in and change points of the annual runoff with the aim of analysing the changing characteristics of the hydrological cycle. The study presents the analytical derivation of a method which combines six Budyko hypothesis-based water-energy balance equations with the PenmanMonteith equation to separate the effects of climate change and human activities. The method takes several climate variables into consideration. Results based on data from the Yongding River basin, China, show that climate change is estimated to account for 10.5-12.6% of the reduction in annual runoff and human activities contribute to 87.4-89.5% of the runoff decline. The results indicate that human activities are the main driving factors for the reduction in runoff.Key words climate change; human activities; runoff; Yongding River basin, China Quantification des effets du changement climatique et des activités humaines sur l'écoulement dans la zone d'alimentation en eau de Pékin, Chine Résumé L'évaluation quantitative des effets du changement climatique et des activités humaines sur l'écoulement est très important pour une gestion durable et adaptative des ressources en eau régionales. Dans cette étude, le test non paramétrique de Mann-Kendall a été utilisé pour identifier les tendances et les sauts de l'écoulement annuel afin d'analyser l'évolution des caractéristiques du cycle hydrologique. L'étude présente l'établissement une méthode analytique qui combine six équations de bilan eau-énergie basées sur l'hypothèse de Budiko avec l'équation de Penman-Monteith, pour séparer les effets du changement climatique et ceux des activités humaines. La méthode prend plusieurs variables climatiques en considération. Les résultats basés sur les données du bassin de la rivière Yongding, en Chine, montrent que l'on peut estimer que la réduction de l'écoulement annuel prévu serait due pour 10,5 à 12,6% au changement climatique et pour 87,4 à 89,5% aux activités humaines. Ces résultats indiquent que les activités humaines sont le principal facteur responsable de la réduction de l'écoulement.

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Separating effects of vegetation change and climate variability using hydrological modelling and sensitivity-based approaches

Cited by 131 publications

References 49 publications

Long Term Quantification of Climate and Land Cover Change Impacts on Streamflow in an Alpine River Catchment, Northwestern China

Long Term Quantification of Climate and Land Cover Change Impacts on Streamflow in an Alpine River Catchment, Northwestern China

Impact of climate and land-use changes on hydrological processes and sediment yield—a case study of the Be River catchment, Vietnam

Quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in the water source area of Beijing, China

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