Sensitivity of hydrological variables to climate change in the Haihe River basin, China

Abstract

Abstract:Using the defined sensitivity index, the sensitivity of streamflow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture to climate change was investigated in four catchments in the Haihe River basin. Climate change contained three parts: annual precipitation and temperature change and the change of the percentage of precipitation in the flood season (P f ). With satisfying monthly streamflow simulation using the variable infiltration capacity model, the sensitivity was estimated by the change of simulated hydrological variables with hypothetical climatic scenarios and observed climatic data. The results indicated that (i) the sensitivity of streamflow would increase as precipitation or P f increased but would decrease as temperature increased; (ii) the sensitivity of evapotranspiration and soil moisture would decrease as precipitation or temperature increased, but it to P f varied in different catchments; and (iii) hydrological variables were more sensitive to precipitation, followed by P f , and then temperature. The nonlinear response of streamflow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture to climate change could provide a reference for water resources planning and management under future climate change scenarios in the Haihe River basin.

Simulating the hydrological responses to climate change of the Xiang River basin, China

“…Wang et al (2013a, b) concluded that an increase in precipitation in the Kuye River catchment on the Loess Plateau of China is leading to greater changes in runoff than a decrease in precipitation of the same magnitude. Bao et al (2012) found that climate change has a larger impact on Hai River stream flow than its impacts on evapotranspiration or soil moisture. Stream flows in most humid or arid areas are more sensitive to changes in precipitation than to change in temperature (Zhang and Wang 2007;Fu et al 2007;Bao et al 2012).…”

“…Bao et al (2012) found that climate change has a larger impact on Hai River stream flow than its impacts on evapotranspiration or soil moisture. Stream flows in most humid or arid areas are more sensitive to changes in precipitation than to change in temperature (Zhang and Wang 2007;Fu et al 2007;Bao et al 2012). Changes in runoff are normally one to three times greater than changes in precipitation (IPCC 2014).…”

“…Many researchers have studied the responses of stream flow to climate change (Loukas and Quick 1996;Jones et al 2005;Notter et al 2007;Thodsen 2007;Kay et al 2009;Jung and Chang 2011;Bao et al 2012;Wang et al 2012;2013a, b). Climatic scenarios used in hydrological response studies typically include either hypothetical scenarios based on historical analysis or projections produced by General Circulation Models (GCMs, Zhang and Wang 2007;IPCC 2008).…”

Spatial and Temporal Changes in Temperature, Precipitation, and Streamflow in the Miyun Reservoir Basin of China

“…The hydroclimatic variables analyzed generally include precipitation amount, surface air temperature, evapotranspiration, and streamflow [8][9][10][11][12]. The previous precipitation studies have focused mainly on changes in annual or monthly precipitation amounts and have ignored changes in precipitation structure including precipitation amount, mean precipitation intensity, and precipitation frequency.…”

“…At present, some studies related to trend analysis of hydroclimatic variables at watershed scale have been carried out, for example in the Lake Victoria Basin in East Africa [5], the Yellow River Basin [6], and the Three Gorges Reservoir [7]. The hydroclimatic variables analyzed generally include precipitation amount, surface air temperature, evapotranspiration, and streamflow [8][9][10][11][12]. The previous precipitation studies have focused mainly on changes in annual or monthly precipitation amounts and have ignored changes in precipitation structure including precipitation amount, mean precipitation intensity, and precipitation frequency.…”