Sensitivity of a forest ecosystem model to climate parametrization schemes

Fischlin, Andreas; Bugmann, Harald; Gyalistras, Dimitrios

doi:10.1016/0269-7491(94)p4158-k

Cited by 73 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…In its simplest form, this is done by adjusting the values of the driving variables and site-specific parameters up and down by small amounts (1, 2, 5, and 10 percent) to see what impact an error in the Forest 12-15 data or assumptions has on the conclusions reached. This will act as a guide to the quality of data needed (Frischlin et al, 1995). Core data: needed for a basic assessment and in several advanced assessments…”

Section: Model Testingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperature Mediated Moose Survival in Northeastern Minnesota

et al. 2009

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The earth is in the midst of a pronounced warming trend and temperatures in Minnesota, USA, as elsewhere, are projected to increase. Northern Minnesota represents the southern edge to the circumpolar distribution of moose (Alces alces), a species intolerant of heat. Moose increase their metabolic rate to regulate their core body temperature as temperatures rise. We hypothesized that moose survival rates would be a function of the frequency and magnitude that ambient temperatures exceeded the upper critical temperature of moose. We compared annual and seasonal moose survival in northeastern Minnesota between 2002 and 2008 with a temperature metric. We found that models based on January temperatures above the critical threshold were inversely correlated with subsequent survival and explained >78% of variability in spring, fall, and annual survival. Models based on late‐spring temperatures also explained a high proportion of survival during the subsequent fall. A model based on warm‐season temperatures was important in explaining survival during the subsequent winter. Our analyses suggest that temperatures may have a cumulative influence on survival. We expect that continuation or acceleration of current climate trends will result in decreased survival, a decrease in moose density, and ultimately, a retreat of moose northward from their current distribution.

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Section: Model Testingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperature Mediated Moose Survival in Northeastern Minnesota

et al. 2009

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“…All simulations were made with the dynamic forest model FORCLIM (version 2.4.0.2) (Bugmann, 1994(Bugmann, , 1996Fischlin et al, 1995a), a stochastic patch-model, which has been verified along climatic gradients in the European Alps (Bugmann, 1994) and North America (Bugmann and Solomon, 1995), with empirical distributions of European tree species in temperature-precipitation space (Bugmann, 1996) and with data from European pristine forests (Badeck et al, 2001).…”

Section: Forest Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the present study we tried to untangle the ecological processes leading to the species pattern in a Holocene pollen record with the help of the forest patch FORCLIM (Bugmann, 1994(Bugmann, , 1996Fischlin et al, 1995a). One goal was to break through the above mentioned circularity: we used (as far as available) climatic input scenarios and immigration dates from independent data sources.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Untangling a Holocene pollen record with forest model simulations and independent climate data

Lischke¹,

Lotter

Fischlin³

2002

Ecological Modelling

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Adaptation potential of forests to rapid climatic changes can be assessed from vegetation dynamics during past climatic changes as preserved in fossil pollen data. However, pollen data reflect the integrated effects of climate and biotic processes, such as establishment, survival, competition, and migration. To disentangle these processes, we compared an annually laminated late Wü rm and Holocene pollen record from the Central Swiss Plateau with simulations of a dynamic forest patch model. All input data used in the simulations were largely independent from pollen data; i.e. the presented analysis is non-circular. Temperature and precipitation scenarios were based on reconstructions from pollen-independent sources. The earliest arrival times of the species at the study site after the last glacial were inferred from pollen maps. We ran a series of simulations under different combinations of climate and immigration scenarios. In addition, the sensitivity of the simulated presence/absence of four major species to changes in the climate scenario was examined. The pattern of the pollen record could partly be explained by the used climate scenario, mostly by temperature. However, some features, in particular the absence of most species during the late Wü rm could only be simulated if the winter temperature anomalies of the used scenario were decreased considerably. Consequently, we had to assume in the simulations, that most species immigrated during or after the Younger Dryas (12 000 years BP), Abies and Fagus even later. Given the timing of tree species immigration, the vegetation was in equilibrium with climate during long periods, but responded with lags at the time-scale of centuries to millennia caused by a secondary succession after rapid climatic changes such as at the end of Younger Dryas, or immigration of dominant taxa. Climate influenced the tree taxa both directly and indirectly by changing inter-specific competition. We concluded, that also during the present fast climatic change, species migration might be an important process, particularly if geographic barriers, such as the Alps are in the migrational path.

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“…First, such a submodel cal-culates the availability of soil resources as a function of weather variables, thus avoiding earlier approaches that implicitly contained climatic information (cf. Fischlin et al 1995). Second, the explicit consideration of soil carbon dynamics makes it possible to assess the carbon balance of the whole forest ecosystem, which is important for the biospheric feedback to the climate system (Post et al 1990).…”

Section: Model Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Simplified Forest Model to Study Species Composition Along Climate Gradients

Bugmann¹

1996

Ecology

277

276

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Forest models based on the gap dynamics hypothesis (gap models) have gained an important role in forest ecology and have grown rather complex in the last 20 yr. They have been applied extensively to study the impacts of climatic change on ecosystems although they originally were not built for this purpose. The objectives of this study were (1) to develop a new forest gap model, ForClim, that includes only a minimum number of ecological assumptions but robust parameterizations of the effects of climate on plant population dynamics; (2) to test the realism of ForClim as compared to its predecessor model, FORECE; and (3) to examine the behavior of FORECE and ForClim systematically along climate gradients in Europe. ForClim is composed of three modular submodels: ForClim—P for plant population dynamics, ForClim—S for soil carbon/nitrogen turnover, and ForClim—E for providing reliable parameterizations of the abiotic environment. For the core model, ForClim—P, it was found that only four factors are sufficient to model tree growth, another four factors are required to model tree establishment, and only two factors are required to model tree mortality. The behavior of ForClim was tested at a large number of sites in the European Alps. The model yields tree species compositions that conform to field data and are very similar to those of the predecessor model. Based on this evaluation alone, it would not be possible to favor one of the models over the other. The behavior of both models then was examined systematically in a parameter space spanned by the annual mean temperature and the annual precipitation sum. From this exercise it became evident that both the pattern of aboveground biomass and the realized niches of the dominating tree species are simulated realistically by ForClim. Extremely steep gradients are characteristic of FORECE, and many ecotones are simulated to occur in the wrong places in FORECE. Thus, some of the current forest gap models can be simplified without reducing the realism of their behavior, and models other than FORECE should be scrutinized in this respect as well. The present study also suggests that the evaluation of model behavior at scattered sites is insufficient to show their validity for simulating forest dynamics along climate gradients. Further rigorous model comparisons and validation studies are required to increase the reliability of this promising class of models.

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Sensitivity of a forest ecosystem model to climate parametrization schemes

Cited by 73 publications

References 22 publications

Temperature Mediated Moose Survival in Northeastern Minnesota

Temperature Mediated Moose Survival in Northeastern Minnesota

Untangling a Holocene pollen record with forest model simulations and independent climate data

A Simplified Forest Model to Study Species Composition Along Climate Gradients

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