A Simplified Forest Model to Study Species Composition Along Climate Gradients

Bugmann, Harald

doi:10.2307/2265700

Cited by 277 publications

(287 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…All simulations were made with the dynamic forest model FORCLIM (version 2.4.0.2) (Bugmann, 1994(Bugmann, , 1996Fischlin et al, 1995a), a stochastic patch-model, which has been verified along climatic gradients in the European Alps (Bugmann, 1994) and North America (Bugmann and Solomon, 1995), with empirical distributions of European tree species in temperature-precipitation space (Bugmann, 1996) and with data from European pristine forests (Badeck et al, 2001).…”

Section: Forest Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Additionally, the continuous non zero values define the relative strength of a species, and thus its competitiveness. To calculate the drought stress a bucket model for soil water is used (Bugmann, 1996).…”

Section: Forest Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the present study we tried to untangle the ecological processes leading to the species pattern in a Holocene pollen record with the help of the forest patch FORCLIM (Bugmann, 1994(Bugmann, , 1996Fischlin et al, 1995a). One goal was to break through the above mentioned circularity: we used (as far as available) climatic input scenarios and immigration dates from independent data sources.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Untangling a Holocene pollen record with forest model simulations and independent climate data

Lischke¹,

Lotter

Fischlin³

2002

Ecological Modelling

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Adaptation potential of forests to rapid climatic changes can be assessed from vegetation dynamics during past climatic changes as preserved in fossil pollen data. However, pollen data reflect the integrated effects of climate and biotic processes, such as establishment, survival, competition, and migration. To disentangle these processes, we compared an annually laminated late Wü rm and Holocene pollen record from the Central Swiss Plateau with simulations of a dynamic forest patch model. All input data used in the simulations were largely independent from pollen data; i.e. the presented analysis is non-circular. Temperature and precipitation scenarios were based on reconstructions from pollen-independent sources. The earliest arrival times of the species at the study site after the last glacial were inferred from pollen maps. We ran a series of simulations under different combinations of climate and immigration scenarios. In addition, the sensitivity of the simulated presence/absence of four major species to changes in the climate scenario was examined. The pattern of the pollen record could partly be explained by the used climate scenario, mostly by temperature. However, some features, in particular the absence of most species during the late Wü rm could only be simulated if the winter temperature anomalies of the used scenario were decreased considerably. Consequently, we had to assume in the simulations, that most species immigrated during or after the Younger Dryas (12 000 years BP), Abies and Fagus even later. Given the timing of tree species immigration, the vegetation was in equilibrium with climate during long periods, but responded with lags at the time-scale of centuries to millennia caused by a secondary succession after rapid climatic changes such as at the end of Younger Dryas, or immigration of dominant taxa. Climate influenced the tree taxa both directly and indirectly by changing inter-specific competition. We concluded, that also during the present fast climatic change, species migration might be an important process, particularly if geographic barriers, such as the Alps are in the migrational path.

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Section: Forest Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Forest Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Untangling a Holocene pollen record with forest model simulations and independent climate data

Lischke¹,

Lotter

Fischlin³

2002

Ecological Modelling

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“…Pan et al (2002) used the TEM-LPJ model to study the interaction of carbon, nitrogen, and water in larch forest, coniferous forest, and C3 grassland. Bugmann (1996) developed the ForClim model, which is a vegetation population dynamic model influenced by carbon-nitrogen cycles. It is used to study the dynamic variation process of the Alps forest structure in the past 1200 years.…”

Section: Research For Forest Ecosystem Processmentioning

confidence: 99%

Progress and prospect of research on forest landscape model

Dai

Wang

et al. 2014

J. Geogr. Sci.

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Abstract:The Forest Landscape Model (FLM) is an efficiency tool of quantified expression of forest ecosystem's structure and function. This paper, on the basis of identifying FLM, according to the stage of development, summarizes the development characteristics of the model, which includes the theoretical foundation of mathematical model, FLM of stand-scale, primary development of spatial landscape model, rapid development of ecosystem process model as the priority, and developing period of structure and process driven by multi-factor. According to the characteristics of different FLMs, this paper classifies the existing FLM in terms of mechanism, property and application, and elaborates the identifications, advantages and disadvantages of different types of models. It summarizes and evaluates the main application fields of existing models from two aspects which are the changes of spatial pattern and ecological process. Eventually, this paper presents FLM's challenges and directions of development in the future, including: (1) more prominent service on the practical strategy of forest management's objectives; (2) construction of multi-modules and multi-plugin to satisfy landscape research demand in various conditions; (3) adoption of high resolution's spatial-temporal data; (4) structural construction of multi-version module; (5) improving the spatial suitability of model application.

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“…More frequent disturbance by windthrow can also have long-term consequences. To quantitatively assess effects of changed storm frequency on species composition and C stocks, the FORCLIM model (Fischlin et al 1995;Bugmann 1996) was used to simulate impacts on forest structure and maximum C-stocks. The most recent FORCLIM version 2.6-4.0 features (i) a refined response to climatic drivers, notably their variability, supporting the simulation of transient forest responses in a physically and ecologically consistent manner (based on work by Gyalistras 1997;Gyalistras and Fischlin 1999), (ii) an improved carbon cycle submodel simulating litter and soil carbon derived from Perruchoud et al (1999), and (iii) a submodel simulating disturbances (fire, storms, avalanches, rockfall, landslides, and insect damage), derived from Mäder (1999).…”

Section: Wind Stormsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate risks and their impact on agriculture and forests in Switzerland

Fuhrer¹,

Beniston²,

Fischlin³

et al.

Climate Variability, Predictability and Climate Risks

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There is growing evidence that, as a result of global climate change, some of the most severe weather events could become more frequent in Europe over the next 50 to 100 years. The paper aims to (i) describe observed trends and scenarios for summer heat waves, windstorms and heavy precipitation, based on results from simulations with global circulation models, regional climate models, and other downscaling procedures, and (ii) discuss potential impacts on agricultural systems and forests in Switzerland. Trends and scenarios project more frequent heavy precipitation during winter corresponding, for example, to a three-fold increase in the exceedance of today's 15-year extreme values by the end of the 21st century. This increases the risk of large-scale flooding and loss of topsoil due to erosion. In contrast, constraints in agricultural practice due to waterlogged soils may become less in a warmer climate. In summer, the most remarkable trend is a decrease in the frequency of wet days, and shorter return times of heat waves and droughts. This increases the risk of losses of crop yield and forage quality. In forests, the more frequent occurrence of dry years may accelerate the replacement of sensitive tree species and reduce carbon stocks, and the projected slight increase in the frequency of extreme storms by the end of the century could increase the risk of windthrow. Some possible measures to maintain goods and services of agricultural and forest ecosystems are mentioned, but it is suggested that more frequent extremes may have more severe consequences than progressive changes in means. In order to effectively decrease the risk for social and economic impacts, long-term adaptive strategies in agriculture and silviculture, investments for prevention, and new insurance concepts seem necessary.

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A Simplified Forest Model to Study Species Composition Along Climate Gradients

Cited by 277 publications

References 67 publications

Untangling a Holocene pollen record with forest model simulations and independent climate data

Untangling a Holocene pollen record with forest model simulations and independent climate data

Progress and prospect of research on forest landscape model

Climate risks and their impact on agriculture and forests in Switzerland

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