Sensitivity analysis of hydrological processes to perturbed climate in a southern boreal forest basin

He, Zhaofeng; Pomeroy, John W.; Fang, Xing; Peterson, A.

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126706

Cited by 8 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…Между тем, лесные экосистемы подвержены воздействию меняющихся факторов окружающей среды, что обуславливает необходимость изучения взаимодействия леса и климата [4,5]. Одним из ключевых аспектов адаптации лесов является приспособление лесов к меняющимся условиям окружающей среды [6,7,8]. Одним из инструментов адаптации выступают мероприятия 1 , направленные на снижение климатических рисков [9].…”

Section: природопользованиеunclassified

Spatial differentiation of forests in the Russian Federation based on the author's algorithm for assessing the level of adaptation to climate change

Semenova,

Soroka,

Nedbaev

2024

Forestry Engineering Journal

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Studying the impact of climate change on forests is an important scientific and practical task. In order to improve the efficiency of forest management, the authors propose a methodology for assessing the level of adaptation of forests to climate change. The article presents the spatial differentiation of the level of forest adaptation calculated for 2021 and its analysis in the context of federal districts and subjects of the Russian Federation. For this purpose, we studied the data of state forest statistics for the period 2013-2022, where we selected indicators reflecting the adaptation of forests to climate risks. A database was created where indicative indicators of climate risk were selected and analyzed for each constituent entity of the Russian Federation. Reduced or insufficient level of adaptation, indicating the need to increase the volume of adaptation measures, is characteristic of 27 % of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, while a satisfactory, increased or high level of adaptation, demonstrating a reduction in the negative manifestations of climate risks, is characteristic of 73 % of the constituent entities. On average across the country, forests are more adapted to the risks of changes in productivity, increased outbreaks of insect pests and increased extreme weather events than to the risks of increased number of forest fires and changes in species composition. It is recommended to use the methodology for assessing the level of adaptation of forests to climate change at the level of regional planning of adaptation measures

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Section: природопользованиеunclassified

Spatial differentiation of forests in the Russian Federation based on the author's algorithm for assessing the level of adaptation to climate change

Semenova,

Soroka,

Nedbaev

2024

Forestry Engineering Journal

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“…Characterized by increment changes in T (i.e., per degree Celsius) and P (i.e., per 10 %), the perturbed climate scenarios are not only suitable for the assessment of hydrological sensitivity (i.e., changes in hydrological variables caused by per degree of warming or per 10 % increases in P ) but also able to examine to what extent the impact of warming can be compensated for by P changes. Despite the limitations, the delta approach has been shown to provide reasonable temporal distributions of extreme dry, wet, hot, and cold climate conditions documented in long-term historical observations (He et al, 2021). This allows for the model calculation of shifts from spring snowfall to spring rainfall with increasing T , which is associated with the generation of extreme flow.…”

Section: Uncertainty and Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the regional sensitivity of snowmelt, soil moisture, and streamflow generation to climate over the Canadian Prairies using a basin classification approach

He,

Shook,

Spence

et al. 2023

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This study evaluated the effects of climate perturbations on snowmelt, soil moisture, and streamflow generation in small Canadian Prairies basins using a modelling approach based on classification of basin biophysical characteristics. Seven basin classes that encompass the entirety of the Prairies Ecozone in Canada were determined by cluster analysis of these characteristics. Individual semi-distributed virtual basin (VB) models representing these classes were parameterized in the Cold Regions Hydrological Model (CRHM) platform, which includes modules for snowmelt and sublimation, soil freezing and thawing, actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture dynamics, groundwater recharge, and depressional storage dynamics including fill and spill runoff generation and variable connected areas. Precipitation (P) and temperature (T) perturbation scenarios covering the range of climate model predictions for the 21st century were used to evaluate climate sensitivity of hydrological processes in individual land cover and basin types across the Prairies Ecozone. Results indicated that snow accumulation in wetlands had a greater sensitivity to P and T than that in croplands and grasslands in all basin types. Wetland soil moisture was also more sensitive to T than the cropland and grassland soil moisture. Jointly influenced by land cover distribution and local climate, basin-average snow accumulation was more sensitive to T in the drier and grassland-characterized basins than in the wetter basins dominated by cropland, whilst basin-average soil moisture was most sensitive to T and P perturbations in basins typified by pothole depressions and broad river valleys. Annual streamflow had the greatest sensitivities to T and P in the dry and poorly connected Interior Grasslands (See Fig. 1) basins but the smallest in the wet and well-connected Southern Manitoba basins. The ability of P to compensate for warming-induced reductions in snow accumulation and streamflow was much higher in the wetter and cropland-dominated basins than in the drier and grassland-characterized basins, whilst decreases in cropland soil moisture induced by the maximum expected warming of 6 ∘C could be fully offset by a P increase of 11 % in all basins. These results can be used to (1) identify locations which had the largest hydrological sensitivities to changing climate and (2) diagnose underlying processes responsible for hydrological responses to expected climate change. Variations of hydrological sensitivity in land cover and basin types suggest that different water management and adaptation methods are needed to address enhanced water stress due to expected climate change in different regions of the Prairies Ecozone.

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“…Snowfall comprises 30% of annual precipitation and winter is 6-7 months, and therefore snow processes govern much of the seasonal runoff generation because melt occurs when soils are frozen and with limited infiltration capacity (Pomeroy and Granger, 1997). Meteorological observations, soil and snow survey data on the forest site, as well as daily streamflow gauged at the basin outlet during 2001-2013 were used for the model evaluation (Sellers et al 1997;Barr et al 2012;Ahmed et al 2020) and are described by He et al (2021).…”

Section: Study Area and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Cold Regions Hydrological Model (CRHM) contains a canopy module that couples canopy processes of snow interception, unloading, sublimation and drip, and energy flux exchanges through the canopy between atmosphere and snow surface (Pomeroy et al, 1998a, b;Pomeroy et al 2007Pomeroy et al , 2022Ellis et al 2010). The model has been successfully applied to reproduce the major hydrological processes and predict hydrology changes under changing climate in a wide range of cold regions including mountains (Fang and Pomeroy, 2020;Pomeroy et al, 2016;Zhou et al, 2014;López-Moreno et al, 2013), prairies (Armstrong et al, 2015), taiga and tundra (Krogh et al, 2017), and boreal forest (Ellis et al 2010;He et al, 2021). It generally performed very well in simulating the snowpack regime and soil moisture under the forest canopy, calculating the yearly water budget, and in synthesizing streamflow in forested basins with no calibration of model parameters (Ellis et al 2010;Pomeroy et al, 2012;Rasouli et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity analysis of hydrological processes to perturbed climate in a southern boreal forest basin

Cited by 8 publications

References 65 publications

Spatial differentiation of forests in the Russian Federation based on the author's algorithm for assessing the level of adaptation to climate change

Spatial differentiation of forests in the Russian Federation based on the author's algorithm for assessing the level of adaptation to climate change

Modelling the regional sensitivity of snowmelt, soil moisture, and streamflow generation to climate over the Canadian Prairies using a basin classification approach

Assessing hydrological sensitivity to future climate change over the Canadian southern boreal forest

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