Spatial differentiation of forests in the Russian Federation based on the author's algorithm for assessing the level of adaptation to climate change

Abstract

Studying the impact of climate change on forests is an important scientific and practical task. In order to improve the efficiency of forest management, the authors propose a methodology for assessing the level of adaptation of forests to climate change. The article presents the spatial differentiation of the level of forest adaptation calculated for 2021 and its analysis in the context of federal districts and subjects of the Russian Federation. For this purpose, we studied the data of state forest statistics for the period 2013-2022, where we selected indicators reflecting the adaptation of forests to climate risks. A database was created where indicative indicators of climate risk were selected and analyzed for each constituent entity of the Russian Federation. Reduced or insufficient level of adaptation, indicating the need to increase the volume of adaptation measures, is characteristic of 27 % of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, while a satisfactory, increased or high level of adaptation, demonstrating a reduction in the negative manifestations of climate risks, is characteristic of 73 % of the constituent entities. On average across the country, forests are more adapted to the risks of changes in productivity, increased outbreaks of insect pests and increased extreme weather events than to the risks of increased number of forest fires and changes in species composition. It is recommended to use the methodology for assessing the level of adaptation of forests to climate change at the level of regional planning of adaptation measures