Sensitivities of glacier mass balance and runoff to climate perturbations in Norway

Engelhardt, Markus; Schuler, Thomas; Andreassen, Liss M.

doi:10.3189/2015aog70a004

Cited by 28 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…There are numerous strategies for future climate data in studies of hydrologic change. The simplest approach [e.g., Engelhardt et al ., ] is to impose spatially and seasonally constant changes in precipitation and temperature. More recent efforts have sought to preserve the spatial and temporal (seasonal; interannual) variability present in projections of future climate.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrologic impacts of changes in climate and glacier extent in the Gulf of Alaska watershed

Beamer

Hill

McGrath

et al. 2017

Water Resources Research

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High‐resolution regional‐scale hydrologic models were used to quantify the response of late 21st century runoff from the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) watershed to changes in regional climate and glacier extent. NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data were combined with five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 general circulation models (GCMs) for two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (4.5 and 8.5) to develop meteorological forcing for the period 2070–2099. A hypsographic model was used to estimate future glacier extent given assumed equilibrium line altitude (ELA) increases of 200 and 400 m. GCM predictions show an increase in annual precipitation of 12% for RCP 4.5 and 21% for RCP 8.5, and an increase in annual temperature of 2.5°C for RCP 4.5 and 4.3°C for RCP 8.5, averaged across the GOA. Scenarios with perturbed climate and glaciers predict annual GOA‐wide runoff to increase by 9% for RCP4.5/ELA200 case and 14% for the RCP8.5/ELA400 case. The glacier runoff decreased by 14% for RCP4.5/ELA200 and by 34% for the RCP8.5/ELA400 case. Intermodel variability in annual runoff was found to be approximately twice the variability in precipitation input. Additionally, there are significant changes in runoff partitioning and increases in snowpack runoff are dominated by increases in rain‐on‐snow events. We present results aggregated across the entire GOA and also for individual watersheds to illustrate the range in hydrologic regime changes and explore the sensitivities of these results by independently perturbing only climate forcings and only glacier cover.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrologic impacts of changes in climate and glacier extent in the Gulf of Alaska watershed

Beamer

Hill

McGrath

et al. 2017

Water Resources Research

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“…This was extrapolated across the estimated number of days the subglacial upwelling was flowing (47 days) to give a total melt season discharge of approximately 6.1 × 10 6 m 3 . The product of the SS concentration and discharge provided an estimated SS flux of 95 × 10 8 g during the summer (Hasholt and Mernild, 2006); 2 (Hawkings et al, 2015); 3 (Hawkings et al, 2016), 4 (Bone, 2014), 5 (Bogen, 1996); 6 (Bogen, 1996;Engelhardt et al, 2015); 7 (Hodson et al, 2004); 8 this study (section Suspended sediment flux and discharge analysis for ML (2016) and RG).…”

Section: Suspended Sediment Flux and Discharge Analysis For ML (2016)mentioning

confidence: 95%

Glacial Erosion Liberates Lithologic Energy Sources for Microbes and Acidity for Chemical Weathering Beneath Glaciers and Ice Sheets

et al. 2018

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“…For hydrological applications, the catchment scale is the most relevant one (Kumar et al, 2013). Snow models of different complexity are used for this (Essery, 2015;Magnusson et al, 2015), and principal challenges are to (a) distinguish between uncertainties introduced by the model structure and uncertainties related to the input data (Schlögl et al, 2016) and (b) develop transferable, site-independent model formulations without the need of calibration. The latter is particularly important for reliable predictions of climate change effects (Bavay et al, 2013) and for model applications to ungauged catchments (Parajka et al, 2013).…”

Section: Snow Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

The European mountain cryosphere: a review of its current state, trends, and future challenges

et al. 2018

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Abstract. The mountain cryosphere of mainland Europe is recognized to have important impacts on a range of environmental processes. In this paper, we provide an overview on the current knowledge on snow, glacier, and permafrost processes, as well as their past, current, and future evolution. We additionally provide an assessment of current cryosphere research in Europe and point to the different domains requiring further research. Emphasis is given to our understanding of climate–cryosphere interactions, cryosphere controls on physical and biological mountain systems, and related impacts. By the end of the century, Europe's mountain cryosphere will have changed to an extent that will impact the landscape, the hydrological regimes, the water resources, and the infrastructure. The impacts will not remain confined to the mountain area but also affect the downstream lowlands, entailing a wide range of socioeconomical consequences. European mountains will have a completely different visual appearance, in which low- and mid-range-altitude glaciers will have disappeared and even large valley glaciers will have experienced significant retreat and mass loss. Due to increased air temperatures and related shifts from solid to liquid precipitation, seasonal snow lines will be found at much higher altitudes, and the snow season will be much shorter than today. These changes in snow and ice melt will cause a shift in the timing of discharge maxima, as well as a transition of runoff regimes from glacial to nival and from nival to pluvial. This will entail significant impacts on the seasonality of high-altitude water availability, with consequences for water storage and management in reservoirs for drinking water, irrigation, and hydropower production. Whereas an upward shift of the tree line and expansion of vegetation can be expected into current periglacial areas, the disappearance of permafrost at lower altitudes and its warming at higher elevations will likely result in mass movements and process chains beyond historical experience. Future cryospheric research has the responsibility not only to foster awareness of these expected changes and to develop targeted strategies to precisely quantify their magnitude and rate of occurrence but also to help in the development of approaches to adapt to these changes and to mitigate their consequences. Major joint efforts are required in the domain of cryospheric monitoring, which will require coordination in terms of data availability and quality. In particular, we recognize the quantification of high-altitude precipitation as a key source of uncertainty in projections of future changes. Improvements in numerical modeling and a better understanding of process chains affecting high-altitude mass movements are the two further fields that – in our view – future cryospheric research should focus on.

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Sensitivities of glacier mass balance and runoff to climate perturbations in Norway

Cited by 28 publications

References 35 publications

Hydrologic impacts of changes in climate and glacier extent in the Gulf of Alaska watershed

Hydrologic impacts of changes in climate and glacier extent in the Gulf of Alaska watershed

Glacial Erosion Liberates Lithologic Energy Sources for Microbes and Acidity for Chemical Weathering Beneath Glaciers and Ice Sheets

The European mountain cryosphere: a review of its current state, trends, and future challenges

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