A comprehensive study of the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) drainage basin was carried out to improve understanding of the coastal freshwater discharge (FWD) and glacier volume loss (GVL). Hydrologic processes during the period 1980-2014 were modeled using a suite of physically based, spatially distributed weather, energy-balance snow/ice melt, soil water balance, and runoff routing models at a high-resolution (1 km horizontal grid; daily time step). Meteorological forcing was provided by the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data sets. Streamflow and glacier mass balance modeled using MERRA and CFSR compared well with observations in four watersheds used for calibration in the study domain. However, only CFSR produced regional seasonal and long-term trends in water balance that compared favorably with independent Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and airborne altimetry data. Mean annual runoff using CFSR was 760 km 3 yr 21 , 8% of which was derived from the long-term removal of stored water from glaciers (glacier volume loss). The annual runoff from CFSR was partitioned into 63% snowmelt, 17% glacier ice melt, and 20% rainfall. Glacier runoff, taken as the sum of rainfall, snow, and ice melt occurring each season on glacier surfaces, was 38% of the total seasonal runoff, with the remaining runoff sourced from nonglacier surfaces. Our simulations suggests that existing GRACE solutions, previously reported to represent glacier mass balance alone, are actually measuring the full water budget of land and ice surfaces.

High‐resolution regional‐scale hydrologic models were used to quantify the response of late 21st century runoff from the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) watershed to changes in regional climate and glacier extent. NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data were combined with five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 general circulation models (GCMs) for two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (4.5 and 8.5) to develop meteorological forcing for the period 2070–2099. A hypsographic model was used to estimate future glacier extent given assumed equilibrium line altitude (ELA) increases of 200 and 400 m. GCM predictions show an increase in annual precipitation of 12% for RCP 4.5 and 21% for RCP 8.5, and an increase in annual temperature of 2.5°C for RCP 4.5 and 4.3°C for RCP 8.5, averaged across the GOA. Scenarios with perturbed climate and glaciers predict annual GOA‐wide runoff to increase by 9% for RCP4.5/ELA200 case and 14% for the RCP8.5/ELA400 case. The glacier runoff decreased by 14% for RCP4.5/ELA200 and by 34% for the RCP8.5/ELA400 case. Intermodel variability in annual runoff was found to be approximately twice the variability in precipitation input. Additionally, there are significant changes in runoff partitioning and increases in snowpack runoff are dominated by increases in rain‐on‐snow events. We present results aggregated across the entire GOA and also for individual watersheds to illustrate the range in hydrologic regime changes and explore the sensitivities of these results by independently perturbing only climate forcings and only glacier cover.

A study of the freshwater discharge into the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) has been carried out. Using available streamgage data, regression equations were developed for monthly flows. These equations express discharge as a function of basin physical characteristics such as area, mean elevation, and land cover, and of basin meteorological characteristics such as temperature, precipitation, and accumulated water year precipitation. To provide the necessary input meteorological data, temperature and precipitation data for a 40 year hind-cast period were developed on high-spatial-resolution grids using weather station data, PRISM climatologies, and statistical downscaling methods. Runoff predictions from the equations were found to agree well with observations. Once developed, the regression equations were applied to a network of delineated watersheds spanning the entire GOA drainage basin. The region was divided into a northern region, ranging from the Aleutian Chain to the Alaska/Canada border in the southeast panhandle, and a southern region, ranging from there to the Fraser River. The mean annual runoff volume into the northern GOA region was found to be 792 6 120 km 3 yr 21 . A water balance using MODIS-based evapotranspiration rates yielded seasonal storage volumes that were consistent with GRACE satellite-based estimates. The GRACE data suggest that an additional 57 6 11 km 3 yr 21 be added to the runoff from the northern region, due to glacier volume loss (GVL) in recent years. This yields a total value of 849 6 121 km 3 yr 21 . The ease of application of the derived regression equations provides an accessible tool for quantifying mean annual values, seasonal variation, and interannual variability of runoff in any ungaged basin of interest.

Total water levels (TWLs) within estuaries are influenced by tides, wind, offshore waves, and streamflow, all of which are uniquely affected by climate change. The magnitude of TWL associated with various return periods is relevant to understanding how the hydrodynamics of a bay or estuary may evolve under distinct climate scenarios. A methodology for assessing the hydrodynamic response of a small estuary under major boundary condition perturbations is presented in this study. The coupled Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) and Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) model was used to simulate wave and water elevation conditions within Tillamook Bay, OR, USA for two long-term scenarios; 1979-1998 and 2041-2060. The model output provided multidecadal time series of TWLs for statistical analysis. Regional climate data from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) were used to drive streamflow modeling (MicroMet/SnowModel/HydroFlow) and meteorological forcing within ADCIRC-SWAN. WAVEWATCH III, which was forced with global climate data from the Community Climate Science Model (CCSM, a contributing model to NARCCAP), was used to produce open boundary wave forcing. Latitudinal and seasonal gradients were found in TWLs associated with varying return periods for both the hindcast and forecast. Changes in TWLs from hindcast to forecast included the sea level rise component and were also modulated by changes in boundary conditions.

Escalating concerns about water supplies in the Great Basin have prompted numerous water budget studies focused on groundwater recharge and discharge. For many hydrographic areas (HAs) in the Great Basin, most of the recharge is discharged by bare soil evaporation and evapotranspiration (ET) from phreatophyte vegetation. Estimating recharge from precipitation in a given HA is difficult and often has significant uncertainty, therefore it is often quantified by estimating the natural discharge. As such, remote sensing applications for spatially distributing flux tower estimates of ET and groundwater ET (ET g ) across phreatophyte areas are becoming more common. We build on previous studies and develop a transferable empirical relationship with uncertainty bounds between flux tower estimates of ET and a remotely sensed vegetation index, Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). Energy balance-corrected ET measured from 40 flux tower site-year combinations in the Great Basin was statistically correlated with EVI derived from Landsat imagery (r 2 = 0.97). Application of the relationship to estimate mean-annual ET g from four HAs in western and eastern Nevada is highlighted and results are compared with previous estimates. Uncertainty bounds about the estimated mean ET g allow investigators to evaluate if independent groundwater discharge estimates are "believable" and will ultimately assist local, state, and federal agencies to evaluate expert witness reports of ET g , along with providing new first-order estimates of ET g .