Sensitivities of a cyclone detection and tracking algorithm: individual tracks and climatology

Pinto, Joaquim G.; Spangehl, Thomas; Ulbrich, Uwe; Speth, P.

doi:10.1127/0941-2948/2005/0068

Cited by 179 publications

(255 citation statements)

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“…Most previous climatological studies of cyclonic activity, whilst they may show one example, have not generally performed detailed comparisons over an extended period. A noteworthy exception to this is the study of Pinto et al (2005), which is further discussed in Sections 6.2 and 6.4.…”

Section: Synoptic Validitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There are many differences, but one key one is that it has been commonplace for feature association to be effected not at T 1 / 2 , but at T 1 , which we will refer to as 'full-time tracking' (e.g. Sinclair, 1994;Terry and Atlas, 1996;Pinto et al, 2005;Wernli and Schwierz, 2006). At the outset that approach was trialled, but again forecaster feedback highlighted some missed associations, which disappeared when half-time tracking was used instead.…”

Section: Objective Identification Typing and Tracking Of The Completmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As ill-defined (barotropic) low centres were deliberately excluded from the objective identification by masking (see Section 3.3.1) it is unsurprising that such features are the largest contributor to the 'misses' (row 2). Moreover, half of these were considered of dubious validity when compared to the pressure pattern on the same synoptic chart, perhaps reflecting alternative use of a 'cross' by the analyst to signify a two-dimensional cyclonic inflection point in the pressure field that is not strictly a low centre (an 'open depression' in the terminology of Murray and Simmonds (1991) and Pinto et al (2005)). Rows 3 and 4 can be considered together in that they probably also signify pragmatic use of available symbols, by the analyst, in circumstances where alternative but as yet unfamiliar symbolic notation, for a diminutive wave for example, might have been more correct.…”

Section: Synoptic Validitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A notable exception is Pinto et al (2005) who carried out extensive testing on documented windstorms, and then adapted their algorithms accordingly. In short the primary differences here, compared to that study, are that objective fronts, half-time tracking and high resolution data are used.…”

Section: Tracking Of Cyclonic Windstormsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Serreze et al, 1997;Hanson et al, 2004), to the complex feature-based centre-of-mass algorithms found in Hodges (1994), to the surface-fitting techniques of Murray and Simmonds (1991), Hodges (1995) and Pinto et al (2005). The surface-fitting techniques could give feature positions that differ slightly from those provided by BL1 and BL2, though whether these positions would be better is questionable, and indeed any differences would only have practical relevance if the input data were upscaled prior to algorithm application, which is not the case here.…”

Section: Example Of Low Centre Diagnosticsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Objective identification, typing and tracking of the complete life-cycles of cyclonic features at high spatial resolution

Hewson

Titley

2010

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Synoptic-scale cyclonic features provide an inescapable focal point for operational forecasting, whilst the merits of tracking such features are increasingly being recognized in the climate change field. Close association with adverse and extreme weather is the main motivator. Here a new and highly sophisticated set of techniques to detect, classify and track the full range is developed. A revised conceptual model of cyclone development provided the initial framework, ensuring a solid bond with forecasting practice, whilst also connecting closely to baroclinic life-cycle concepts. Building on this, cyclones are detected using a hybrid of geopotential minimum/vorticity maximum techniques, whilst incorporating important extensions to ensure that vorticity can be used at high resolution (∼50 km) and that features on fronts take priority. To track the features across time, at intervals of 12 h or less, feature attributes in the association process are used. Additionally, an upper-tropospheric steering wind is employed to estimate future and past positions. This facilitates 'half-time tracking', a new approach that has clear-cut advantages over 'full-time tracking' employed elsewhere.In detection tests, comparing with subjectively-drawn charts, the feature hit rate was 84%, and the false alarm ratio 17%, whilst in a simple tracking test the association failure rate was just 2%. These values compare very favourably with previous studies.One key application is discussed. This involves processing ensemble output to provide wide-ranging real-time products tailor-made to forecasters' needs. Products include track-following plume diagrams, for various cyclone attributes, and storm-track strike probability plots for different thresholds of severity.

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Section: Synoptic Validitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Objective Identification Typing and Tracking Of The Completmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Synoptic Validitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Tracking Of Cyclonic Windstormsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Example Of Low Centre Diagnosticsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Objective identification, typing and tracking of the complete life-cycles of cyclonic features at high spatial resolution

Hewson

Titley

2010

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Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe under recent and future climate conditions

et al. 2013

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[1] Under particular large-scale atmospheric conditions, several windstorms may affect Europe within a short time period. The occurrence of such cyclone families leads to large socioeconomic impacts and cumulative losses. The serial clustering of windstorms is analyzed for the North Atlantic/western Europe. Clustering is quantified as the dispersion (ratio variance/mean) of cyclone passages over a certain area. Dispersion statistics are derived for three reanalysis data sets and a 20-run European Centre Hamburg Version 5 /Max Planck Institute Version-Ocean Model Version 1 global climate model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM) ensemble. The dependence of the seriality on cyclone intensity is analyzed. Confirming previous studies, serial clustering is identified in reanalysis data sets primarily on both flanks and downstream regions of the North Atlantic storm track. This pattern is a robust feature in the reanalysis data sets. For the whole area, extreme cyclones cluster more than nonextreme cyclones. The ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM is generally able to reproduce the spatial patterns of clustering under recent climate conditions, but some biases are identified. Under future climate conditions (A1B scenario), the GCM ensemble indicates that serial clustering may decrease over the North Atlantic storm track area and parts of western Europe. This decrease is associated with an extension of the polar jet toward Europe, which implies a tendency to a more regular occurrence of cyclones over parts of the North Atlantic Basin poleward of 50°N and western Europe. An increase of clustering of cyclones is projected south of Newfoundland. The detected shifts imply a change in the risk of occurrence of cumulative events over Europe under future climate conditions.

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On the relation between explosive cyclones affecting Europe and the North Atlantic Oscillation

Gómara

Rodríguez‐Fonseca

Zurita‐Gotor

et al. 2014

Geophys. Res. Lett.

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Intense winter cyclones often lead to hazardous weather over Europe. Previous studies have pointed to a link between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and strong European windstorms. However, the robustness of this relation for cyclones of varying intensities remains largely unexplored. In this paper, the bi-directional relation between the NAO and cyclones impacting Europe is analyzed for the period 1950-2010 focusing on the sensitivity to storm intensity. Evidence is given that explosive (EC) and non-explosive cyclones (NoEC) predominantly develop under different large-scale circulation conditions over the North Atlantic. Whereas NoEC evolve more frequently under negative and neutral NAO phases, the number of EC is larger under a positive NAO phase, typically characterized by an intensified jet toward Western Europe. Important differences are also found on the dynamics of NAO evolution after peak intensity for both cyclone populations.

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Sensitivities of a cyclone detection and tracking algorithm: individual tracks and climatology

Cited by 179 publications

References 0 publications

Objective identification, typing and tracking of the complete life-cycles of cyclonic features at high spatial resolution

Objective identification, typing and tracking of the complete life-cycles of cyclonic features at high spatial resolution

Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe under recent and future climate conditions

On the relation between explosive cyclones affecting Europe and the North Atlantic Oscillation

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