Selective humanitarians: how region and conflict perception drive military interventions in intrastate crises

Abstract

Why are some violent intrastate crises more likely to prompt humanitarian military interventions than others? States appear to intervene robustly in reaction to some internal conflicts, such as Kosovo, but withhold similar options in more intense conflict, as in Darfur. Much of the research on this ‘selectivity gap’ focuses on universal norms or geopolitical interests. I, however, argue that the selectivity of these interventions is a product of regional variations interacting with conflict perceptions. This paper introduces a dataset of almost 1000 observations of intrastate armed conflict between 1989 and 2014, paired with international military responses and non-responses, as well as an Intervention Index that accounts for the intensity of military interventions. I find that once a threshold of human suffering is met via the existence of an internal armed conflict, powerful states will intervene depending on whether the conflict occurs in the Western sphere of influence and whether it is denoted as an identity war. A Western region coupled with no perceptions of identity-based civil war prompts the greatest odds of humanitarian military intervention. Such conclusions carry implications on the role of norms and interests in international politics, as biased by region, and for military intervention as a policy choice.

Just Another Civil War?

“…The perspective that Campbell (1998) applied to Bosnia can also apply to other internal crises, making conflict perceptions an important variable when discussing Western actors’ selectivity of humanitarian military interventions. In fact, in a recent statistical analysis of all cases of intrastate conflict (1989–2014) matched to humanitarian intervention and non‐intervention, I have shown that conflict perception, from perceptions of civil war to systematic killings, significantly alter the probability of intervention, and often more so than traditional factors of national interest or human rights (Kushi 2022). I now employ a mixed‐methods analysis to process‐trace one precedent‐setting case, the Kosovo Crisis, and examine the following hypothesis: H1: If the understanding of an intrastate conflict amongst Western elites shifts from the civil war to systematic killings, the likelihood of third‐party military intervention increases. …”

El destino universal de la democracia y el realismo geopolítico V_1_0

“…(…/…) In addition, we will engage the U.S. defense private sector via Prosper Africa to support sustainable technology and energy solutions for African militaries". Esto último conviene ponerlo en contexto: sabemos que Usa ha acelerado su pasión por la guerra (Kushi & Toft, 2022) y las intervenciones militares con justificación humanitaria (Kushi, 2022) (a). Entre 1776-2019 Usa ha llevado a cabo al menos 400 acciones militares (1,65 por año en promedio).…”