Selection of Provenances to Adapt Tropical Pine Forestry to Climate Change on the Basis of Climate Analogs

Abstract

Pinus patula and Pinus tecunumanii play an important role in the forestry sector in the tropics and subtropics and, in recent decades, members of the International Tree Breeding and Conservation Program (Camcore) at North Carolina State University have established large, multi-site provenance trials for these pine species. The data collected in these trials provide valuable information about species and provenance choice for plantation establishment in many regions with different climates. Since climate is changing rapidly, it may become increasingly difficult to choose the right species and provenance to plant. In this study, growth performance of plantings in Colombia, Brazil and South Africa was correlated to the degree of climatic dissimilarity between planting sites. Results are used to assess the suitability of seed material under a changing climate for four P. patula provenances and six P. tecunumanii provenances. For each provenance, climate dissimilarities based on standardized Euclidean distances were calculated and statistically related to growth performances. We evaluated the two methods of quantifying climate dissimilarity with extensive field data based on the goodness of fit and statistical significance of the climate distance relation to differences in height growth. The best method was then used as a predictor of a provenance change in height growth. The provenance-specific models were OPEN ACCESSForests 2013, 4 156 used to predict provenance performance under different climate change scenarios. The developed provenance-specific models were able to significantly relate climate similarity to different growth performances for five out of six P. tecunumanii provenances. For P. patula provenances, we did not find any correlation. Results point towards the importance of the identification of sites with stable climates where high yields are achievable. In such sites, fast-growing P. tecunumanii provenances with a high but narrow growth optimum can be planted. At sites with climate change of uncertain direction and magnitude, the choice of P. patula provenances, with greater tolerance towards different temperature and precipitation regimes, is recommended. Our results indicate that the analysis of provenance trial data with climate similarity models helps us to (1) maintain plantation productivity in a rapidly changing environment; and (2) improve our understanding of tree species' adaptation to a changing climate.

Impact of Climate Trends and Drought Events on the Growth of Oaks (Quercus robur L. and Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl.) within and beyond Their Natural Range

“…During the last decades, a wide range of studies have focused on the growth dynamics of trees within their natural habitat [23,65,66]. Other studies investigated tree growth response to climate change by looking at tree growth in regions that currently exhibit climate conditions that are expected for the area of interest under future climate [67][68][69][70]. Both approaches have the limitation that the real flexibility of a tree species against climate conditions is not fully covered.…”

Threats of Tar Spot Complex disease of maize in the United States of America and its global consequences

“…The county-level information on the presence of P. maydis in the four Corn Belt states (Bissonnette 2015;Wise et al 2016) was used to generate an analogue climate map utilizing the analogue tool. The analogue climate approach has been utilized for a number of studies mainly focused on climate change analysis (Hallegatte et al 2007;Burke et al 2009;Hayman et al 2010;Thornton et al 2011;Webb et al 2013;Leibing et al 2013;Berry et al 2014;Kellett et al 2015;Pugh et al 2016;Dahinden et al 2017;Flückiger et al 2017). The analogue tool used here was based on R code, which was developed by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and the University of Reading, UK, for climate change studies (Ramírez-Villegas et al 2011).…”

Growth and dynamic modulus of elasticity of Pinus patula × Pinus tecunumanii hybrids in Mpumalanga, South Africa

“…Pinus tecunumanii produces wood of similar or slightly higher density than P. patula, P. taeda and P. elliottii. In South Africa, Colombia and Brazil it was reported that P. tecunumanii was prone to stem breakage; however, this was noted to occur more frequently in the HE population (Hodge and Dvorak 1999;Leibing et al 2013).…”

“…In South Africa, P. patula is the most important pine species used to establish plantations due to its superior growth and wood properties (Dvorak et al 2000c). This species is insensitive to changes in climatic conditions with regard to growth (Leibing et al 2013). Pinus patula has proved to be an ideal timber for the production of saw logs, veneer logs and pulpwood.…”