“…This transition results from long-term livestock overgrazing and multiyear drought in arid grasslands (Bestelmeyer et al, 2011), compared to high PPT and reduced incidence of fire in mesic grasslands (Briggs et al, 2005;Knapp et al, 2008). In semiarid warm grasslands, an increase in the number or length of below-average periods would likely increase their vulnerability to desertification, which requires sustained drought combined with additional disturbances such as fire and soil erosion (Moreno-de las Heras, Turnbull, & Wainwright, 2016;Peters, Herrick, Monger, & Huang, 2010;Van Auken, 2009). In semiarid warm grasslands, an increase in the number or length of below-average periods would likely increase their vulnerability to desertification, which requires sustained drought combined with additional disturbances such as fire and soil erosion (Moreno-de las Heras, Turnbull, & Wainwright, 2016;Peters, Herrick, Monger, & Huang, 2010;Van Auken, 2009).…”