With the
increasing demands on energy and environmental domains, not only high
oil production but also its accurate quantification has become one
of the most important topics in academia and industry. This paper
initially proposes a comprehensive workflow in which an integrated
hierarchy–correlation model is used to thoroughly evaluate
the influences of all relevant reservoir parameters on the ultimate
oil recovery for water-flooding oil reservoirs. More specifically,
the analytic hierarchy process, grey relation, and entropy weight
are combined through the multiplicative weighting method to quantitatively
describe the production parameters. Accordingly, novel multivariable
linear and nonlinear correlations are developed to predict the production
performance and validated through comparisons with numerical reservoir
simulations. Seven factors, including five reservoir parameters, namely,
permeability and its contrast, porosity, thickness, and saturation,
and two production parameters, namely, the injection–production
ratio and the operating pressure, have been identified as the most
influential factors on recovery performances and thus are employed
in the proposed correlations to predict the ultimate oil recovery
factor. The results obtained by the proposed method are quite close
to the real-time simulation data, while the accuracy is retained.
The numerical results show that the recovery factors of water-flooding
oil reservoirs are about 33.5–59.5%, and the corresponding
linear and nonlinear correlation coefficients are 0.903 and 0.789,
respectively. In comparison with the numerical simulation, the approximation
error by the linear correlation is about 0.5%, which is lower than
that of nonlinear correlation, for example, 12.3%. This study will
be beneficial to analyze the reservoir-related parameters and provide
a useful tool for rapid production performance evaluation of the water-flooding
production scenario.