Second Unions Now More Stable than First? A Comparison of Separation Risks by Union Order in France

Abstract

The frequency of union dissolutions increased sharply over the past 40 years in Western Europe and North America, resulting in a rapid growth in the number of persons living with a second partner. In studies of the 1980s, primarily conducted within the context of marriage, second partnerships were generally found to be less stable than first unions, but more recent studies provide more conflicting evidence. Taking the example of France, we study whether the relationship between first and second union stability indeed reversed between the 1970s and the 2000s, and how union and individual characteristics contributed to changes over time. The analysis presented here is based on the French Generations and Gender Survey (2005). The article first provides an overview of the differences in marriage, childbearing and breakup behaviours in first and second unions. Second, a piecewise linear model for repeated events is used to compare women's dissolution risks in first and second unions. The results show that over time, the higher instability of second compared to first unions disappeared. Further, women in second unions adopted unmarried cohabitation as a living arrangement more often across the whole period and were more likely to have stepchildren, which was associated with less stable unions. Taking into account this diversity of family situations, i.e. controlling for family form and children, second unions were more stable than first unions, even during the past. At both union orders, marriage breakup risks tended to stabilise despite a continuing increase in the prevalence of separation, which suggests that cohabitation increasingly acts as a filter for marriage.

Contribution of the Rise in Cohabiting Parenthood to Family Instability: Cohort Change in Italy, Great Britain, and Scandinavia

“…Couples have increasingly started living together without the legal commitment of marriage and have become increasingly likely to separate if they marry (Bumpass et al 1991; Härkönen and Dronkers 2006; Kennedy and Ruggles 2013, 2014; Manning et al 2014; Raley and Bumpass 2003; Sobotka and Toulemon 2008). These trends are also found among parents; increasing proportions of adults have their first child in cohabitation, and separation or divorce is increasingly likely to follow (Beaujouan 2016; Bernardi and Martinez-Pastor 2011; Musick and Michelmore 2015). Parental separation at the least creates temporary dislocations in family life and relationships, and at worst produces more deleterious outcomes for children (Thomson and McLanahan 2012).…”

New Partner, New Order? Multipartnered Fertility and Birth Order Effects on Educational Achievement

“…A common argument is that the complexity of such arrangements leads to considerable stress for both children and parents (Petren 2017 ). We argue that these negative effects are likely to work in the same direction as union dissolutions, affecting children of the first set negatively, because we expect the second union to provide a more stable environment (Beaujouan 2016 ; Poortman and Lyngstad 2007 ).…”

Simulating family life courses: An application for Italy, Great Britain, Norway, and Sweden

“…On the other hand, stepchildren might be perceived as a potential source of conflict and hence increase partnership instability. Empirical evidence shows that unions are generally less stable when there are stepchildren (Lyngstad and Jalovaara 2010;Beaujouan 2016).…”