Secas E Os Impactos Na Região Sul Do Brasil

Fernandes, Valesca Rodriguez; Cunha, Ana Paula; Pineda, Luz Adriana Cuartas; Leal, Karinne Reis Deusdará; Costa, Lidiane Cristina; Broedel, Elisângela; França, Daniela; Alvalá, Regina Célia dos Santos; Seluchi, Marcelo Enrique; Marengo, José A.

doi:10.5380/rbclima.v28i0.74717

Cited by 14 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Several drought events have also occurred in Amazonia, accentuating forest fires, affecting the region's biota, and signaling the risk of a tipping point [37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. Additionally, in the last decade, other Brazilian regions have also experienced severe droughts, such as the 2019/2020 droughts in the Brazilian Pantanal and Midwest [44][45][46] and the 2012/2013 and 2019/2020 droughts in southern Brazil [47,48]. Another South American region affected by droughts is Southeastern South America (SESA), which covers northern Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and southern Brazil.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Precipitation and Hydrological Droughts in South America through Statistically Downscaled CMIP6 Projections

Ferreira

Reboita

Ribeiro

et al. 2023

Climate

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Drought events are critical environmental threats that yield several socioeconomic impacts. Such effects are even more relevant for South America (SA) since different activities essential for the continent, such as agriculture and energy generation, depend highly on water resources. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate future changes in precipitation and hydrological drought occurrence in SA through climate projections from eight global climate models (GCMs) of CMIP6. To this end, statistical downscaling was applied to the projections obtained using the quantile delta mapping technique, and the method proved to be efficient in reducing systematic biases and preserving GCMs’ trends. For the following decades, the results show considerable and statistically significant reductions in precipitation over most of SA, especially during the austral spring, with the most intense signal under the SSP5-8.5 forcing scenario. Furthermore, GCMs showed mixed signals about projections of the frequency and intensity of drought events. Still, they indicated agreement regarding the increased duration and severity of events over the continent and a substantial proportion of moderate and severe events over most of Brazil during the 21st century. These results can be helpful for better management of water resources by decision-makers and energy planners.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Precipitation and Hydrological Droughts in South America through Statistically Downscaled CMIP6 Projections

Ferreira

Reboita

Ribeiro

et al. 2023

Climate

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“…Brondani et al (2013), in a study about the occurrence of droughts and water supply problems in the municipality of Bagé, concluded that the city residents of Bagé have noticed the existence of drought in the municipality at least in the last 25 years, which has caused lack of water for public supply. According to Fernandes et al (2021), the 2019/2020 drought event occurred in the first quarter of 2020 with great intensity and expansion, as we can see through the impacts caused on the population in the municipality of Pelotas, during the summer of 2019/2020. The Santa Bárbara Dam, mainly responsible for supplying the municipality, reached the historical level of retreat, being 4,40 meters below the normal level since its construction (Diário Popular, 2021;Silveira, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of average annual temperatures and rainfall in southern region of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

Cardoso

Siqueira

Timm

et al. 2022

Rev. Bras. Ciênc. Ambient.

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This work aimed to analyze the average temperature and rainfall in the Southern and Steppe regions of the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, obtained by three global climate models regionalized by the Eta model (CANESM2, HADGEM2-ES and MIROC5) for the historical period, and two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), subdivided into three periods: F1 (2006-2040), F2 (2041-2070), and F3 (2071-2099). The analysis was conducted by applying the trend tests Mann Kendall’s, Sen’s Slope and Pettitt’s to the dataset. The study noted an increase in temperature, and that the highest temperatures will occur at the end of the century. For the three climate models, temperatures will be milder in the RCP 4.5 scenario, mostly, when compared to the RCP 8.5. For those scenarios, a significant increase up to 0.95°C/year was observed in the temperature of all series, with the years of change in the mean values occurring between 2048 and 2060. The projections also suggest that there may be an increase in the average accumulated rainfall in the future periods analyzed, with exception of the result found with CANESM2 model at the RCP 8.5 scenario, which showed a significant decrease of annual rainfall in all series, ranging approximately from -3,1 to -6,6 mm/year. Those significant changes in mean of the rainfall series are expected for the late 2070's. With exception of this result, most cities and models indicate an increase in rainfall regimes, with clear variations between models and scenarios.

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“…Além de causar escassez ou falta de água para população urbana, períodos acentuados de secas podem prejudicar a produção agrícola, que é uma atividade importante na cidade de Viçosa-MG e região. Fernandes et al (2021) fizeram um estudo parecido, verificando os impactos causados pelas secas na região Sul, atentando-se ao problema de abastecimento de água, produção agrícola e geração de energia. Do ponto de vista do setor de abastecimento de água tratada para a população da cidade de Viçosa -MG, o índice de precipitação pluviométrica total e a regularidade das chuvas causam grande preocupação, visto que frequentemente a cidade passa por uma escassez muito grande de água, sendo frequentemente necessário recorrer ao rodízio de abastecimento.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Precipitation pattern in Viçosa-MG: a case study via time series

Lacerda

Martins

Temoteo

et al. 2022

R. Agrogeoambiental

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This paper studies monthly precipitation time series in Viçosa MG, Brazil. We aimed to detect serial patterns in precipitation like trend and seasonality and make predictions for the 2019 year. The idea was to understand water shortage events that occur in Viçosa as well as the challenges regarding water supply for human consumption and agricultural production faced by urban and rural citizens. We used time series and SARIMA (1,0,0) x (0,1,1) model approaches selected based on Bayesian and Akaike Information criteria values (BIC and AIC, respectively). In addition, the ARCH (2) model, selected through AIC, was used to fit SARIMA (1,0,0) x (0,1,1) residues with heteroscedasticity. Our results reveal no changes in precipitation for Viçosa, MG, Brazil, with large variations observed only for specific periods.

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Secas E Os Impactos Na Região Sul Do Brasil

Cited by 14 publications

References 24 publications

Assessment of Precipitation and Hydrological Droughts in South America through Statistically Downscaled CMIP6 Projections

Assessment of Precipitation and Hydrological Droughts in South America through Statistically Downscaled CMIP6 Projections

Analysis of average annual temperatures and rainfall in southern region of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

Precipitation pattern in Viçosa-MG: a case study via time series

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