Seasonal Variation and Geographical Distribution of COVID-19 across Nigeria (March 2020–July 2021)

Moroh, Jude Eguolo; Innocent, David Chinaecherem; Chukwuocha, Uchechukwu Madukaku; Vasavada, Advait; Kumar, Ramesh; Siddiq, Mohammad Arham; Rais, Mohammed Amir; Rabaan, Ali A.; Alshehri, Wafa M.; Alharbi, Areej M.; Binateeq, Mohammed A.; Halwani, Muhammad A.; Al-Ahdal, Tareq; Padhi, Bijaya Kumar; Sah, Ranjit

doi:10.3390/vaccines11020298

Cited by 5 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Of note, the northern region with a lower COVID-19 pandemic prevalence35 compared with the southern region has the highest volume of EHS indicators utilisation as shown in this study. The highest volume recorded in the northern regions may be associated with the higher population in the regions relative to the southern regions.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 51%

“…34 It is not surprising that any disruptions in routine health services would produce a higher and longer-lasting impact in most parts of Nigeria's northern regions. Of note, the northern region with a lower COVID-19 pandemic prevalence 35 compared with the southern region has the highest volume of EHS indicators utilisation as shown in this study. The highest volume recorded in the northern regions may be associated with the higher population in the regions relative to the southern regions.…”

Section: Evaluation Of Model Performancesupporting

confidence: 52%

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Regional differences in the utilisation of antenatal care and skilled birth attendant services during the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria: an interrupted time series analysis

Afolabi,

Salawu,

Bamgboye

et al. 2023

BMJ Glob Health

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IntroductionThe COVID-19 pandemic has had a substantial negative impact on the utilisation of essential health services (EHS) globally, especially in resource-limited settings such as Nigeria. High maternal deaths associated with low access to and utilisation of EHS such as antenatal care (ANC) and skilled birth attendants (SBAs) remain a concern during the COVID-19 era. The study assessed the COVID-19 pandemic effects on ANC and SBA utilisation across regions in Nigeria.MethodsMonthly data on ANC and SBA between January 2017 and July 2021 were obtained from the Federal Ministry of Health database. An interrupted time-series analysis, implemented using the Prophet model, was conducted to compare the regional variation of outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic. Average percentage changes (PC) between the observed and predicted outcomes including their 95% CI were reported.ResultsFrom March 2020 to July 2021, the number of ANC visits was significantly lower than expected by a 16%–43% change in five of the six regions in Nigeria. The highest significant reduction was in North-West (PC=−43.4; 95% CI: −52.6 to –34.1) and the least in South-West (PC=−15.5; 95% CI: −24.8 to –6.1), with no significant change in the South-East. The number of deliveries by SBA was significantly lower than expected by a 18%–43% change in all the regions (p<0.01). North-East (PC=−43.3; 95% CI: –51.7 to –34.9) and South-West (PC=−18.3; 95% CI: −25.2 to –11.5), respectively, had the highest and the least decline in SBA utilisation. Overall, ANC and SBA patterns of change were relatively similar across the north-south divide though the change effect was considerably pronounced in the north.ConclusionThere was a substantial reduction in ANC and SBA utilisation due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria, especially in the northern regions. Targeted and contextually relevant interventions should be implemented to alleviate the impact of emergency response on access to EHS and promote access to care during the pandemic.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 51%

Section: Evaluation Of Model Performancesupporting

confidence: 52%

Regional differences in the utilisation of antenatal care and skilled birth attendant services during the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria: an interrupted time series analysis

Afolabi,

Salawu,

Bamgboye

et al. 2023

BMJ Glob Health

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“…The North-East had the least confirmed COVID-19 case in both 2020 and 2023. This contradicts findings byMoroh, et al (2023) where the lowest confirmed case was observed in the North-Central.The increase COVID-19 confirmed case from 2020 to 2023 and death case observed from 2020 to 2023 in South-West and North Central regions could be attributed to logistical, administrative, and social obstacles. These challenges ranged from shortage of testing and isolation centres, lack of medical equipment and personnel, non-involvement of social workers and low motivation of medical personnel.…”

contrasting

confidence: 89%

“…The South-West region of Nigeria consistently reported the highest confirmed cases of COVID-19 in both 2020 and 2023, aligning with the findings ofMoroh, et al (2023) research where the reason may be attributed to the fact that the first confirmed case of COVID-19 infection was observed in a state in South-West, Nigeria: thus, the area is susceptible to the transmission of the viral infection. Additionally, the government of Lagos State and the Federal government of Nigeria notably expanded testing facilities, contributing to an increased identification of cases.…”

supporting

confidence: 83%

Regional disparities in COVID-19 case fatality rates: A comparative analysis of Nigerian Geopolitical Regions in 2020 and 2023

Onoriode Okpako Diamreyan,

Kalio Awopolagha Justice,

Horsfall Seleipiri

et al. 2024

GSC Adv. Res. Rev.

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In December 2019, first case of COVID-19 was documented in the Wuhan, China. The symptoms commonly associated with COVID-19 include cough, fever, fatigue, and breathing difficulties. In 30th January 2020, the WHO declared COVID-19 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. The coronavirus entered Nigeria through an infected Italian citizen who came in contact with a Nigerian citizen who was subsequently infected with the coronavirus. The coronavirus then spread to other citizens in Lagos and to other parts of the country. This study focuses on analysing the Case fatality rates (CFR) of COVID-19 in different geopolitical regions of Nigeria in the years 2020 and 2023. The regions considered are North Central, North East, North West, South South, South West and South East. This was a retrospective study using national surveillance data collected from all 36 States and Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in Nigeria. Epidemiological indices of COVID-19 of 12th July, 2020 and data as at 26th February, 2023 were downloaded from the official update database of the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) and World Health Organisation (WHO) weekly report within the same period of this study The confirmed cases and deaths were extracted directly while the Case fatality rates (CFR) were computed. The total confirmed cases, death cases, and Cases Fatality Rates (CFR) as at 12th July 2020 was 31,323, 706 and 2.3% respectively. However, in 2023, the values had changed to 440,139 confirmed cases, 3156 death cases an a CRF of 0.7% respectively. The North Central region was observed to have the highest fatality rate of 62.1% and 47.2% in 2020 and 2023 respectively. The North East accounted for 32.5% and 12.6%, Noth West 36.4% and 16.4%, South- South, 37.5% and 12.4%, South East 16.9% and 4.7% and South West 15.4% and 10.1% respectively in 2020 and 2023. The 6 geopolitical regions of the country experience decrease at different proportion in Case Fatality Rates and this can be attributed to various factors, including increased vaccination coverage, better understanding of the virus, improved healthcare infrastructure and more effective public health measures. Despite the decrease in case fatality rate, regional disparities still exist which may be linked to underlying socioeconomic and healthcare disparities between regions. Addressing these disparities is crucial for a more equitable response to future pandemics

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“…This information is represented in Figure 5. (Badmus et al, 2023;Omede et al, 2023;Onwube et al, 2023;Adeyemi et al, 2023;Moroh et al, 2023;Taiwo et al, 2023) and elsewhere around the world (Triambak et al, 2023;Jameel et al, 2023;Mitra et al, 2023) focusing on understanding the behaviour of the disease through modelling, reproduction metrics, risk factors and other research approaches.…”

Section: Visualisation Of Covid-19 Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

An Estimate of Time-Dependent Transmission of COVID-19 Pandemic in Katsina State from June to November 2021

Rabe,

Idris

2022

USci

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This paper investigates the spread of COVID-19 pandemic in Katsina state from 23rd June to 27th November, 2021, using graphical tools to visually analyse infection over time and time-dependent reproduction number to quantify the transmissibility of the disease. Study data consist of diagnostic results of reverse transcriptase real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction assays (RT-PCR) on nine hundred and eighty-nine nasal swab samples from suspected COVID-19 cases, collected from public and private health facilities across Local government areas of the State and analysed by the Molecular Laboratory of the Federal Medical Centre Katsina, recording a total of 137 positive cases. Our investigation revealed that, over the study period, COVID-19 transmission reaches its peak on 17th October 2021 (Epidemic Week 41), with a mean Reproduction number (Rt) of 3.22 and a standard deviation of 0.5976 (95% CI: 2.6193 - 3.8145), culminating in 19 new infections on Wednesday the 27th (Epidemic Week 43). The combined age groups 21-30 and 31-40 constituted the most affected cases with 29 (21.17%) and 19 (13.87%) positive cases, respectively. This was closely followed by age group 51-60 with 19 (13.87%) positive cases. On gender basis, 70 (51%) females tested positive compared to 67 (49%) males. We therefore conclude that for the third wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Katsina State, disease transmission reaches its peak in Epidemic Week 41 in October, then rapidly diminishes to Rt values of less than one, indicating that no new infections were expected by the end of November, with female gender and age groups in the range 21 to 40 years being most infected. We recommend that mitigation strategies that take into consideration features inherent in female gender and more pronounced in young (21 to 40 years) and middle-aged (51-60 years) adults should be adopted in case of future waves.

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Seasonal Variation and Geographical Distribution of COVID-19 across Nigeria (March 2020–July 2021)

Cited by 5 publications

References 23 publications

Regional differences in the utilisation of antenatal care and skilled birth attendant services during the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria: an interrupted time series analysis

Regional differences in the utilisation of antenatal care and skilled birth attendant services during the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria: an interrupted time series analysis

Regional disparities in COVID-19 case fatality rates: A comparative analysis of Nigerian Geopolitical Regions in 2020 and 2023

An Estimate of Time-Dependent Transmission of COVID-19 Pandemic in Katsina State from June to November 2021

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