Seasonal Prediction and Predictability of Regional Antarctic Sea Ice

Bushuk, Mitchell; Winton, Michael; Haumann, F. Alexander; Delworth, T. L.; Lu, Feiyu; Zhang, Yongfei; Jia, Liwei; Zhang, Liping; Cooke, William; Harrison, Matthew; Hurlin, Bill; Johnson, Nathaniel C.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; McHugh, Colleen; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Rosati, Anthony; Tseng, Kuo-Hung; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Yang, Xiaosong; Zeng, Fanrong

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-20-0965.1

Cited by 35 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 94 publications

(99 reference statements)

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“…2), related to the fact that the total extent is influenced by many regional processes that often offset or cancel each other 1,4,8 . Similar to the reconstructions, sea ice forecasts perform much better for individual sectors than they do for the total Antarctic-wide sea ice 28 . These sectoral differences are also why a circum-Antarctic proxy-based reconstruction has not been possible 17,19 .…”

Section: Articlesmentioning

confidence: 56%

A regime shift in seasonal total Antarctic sea ice extent in the twentieth century

et al. 2022

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ea ice is a critically important component of the very complex Antarctic climate system. Its variability is driven by changes in the atmosphere and ocean, which interact with each other and operate on different timescales 1 . The remote nature of Antarctica means that there are very few in situ measurements of the surrounding atmosphere or ocean where the sea ice forms, and understanding its variability depends largely on satellite observations 2,3 . Satellite measurements of Antarctic sea ice extent indicate weak but statistically significant increases in total sea ice around Antarctica from 1979 to 2016, followed by a sharp decline to below-average values in 2016 and a record low in summer 2017, before returning to average by austral summer 2020. While the total Antarctic sea ice extent exhibits a positive trend 4 (unlike the Arctic sea ice extent 5 ), there is a strong regionality 6 and seasonality 7 to the trends, and they can be of opposite signs, particularly marked by an increase in the Ross Sea and a decrease in the Bellingshausen Sea prior to 2016 1,4 . Analyses of the observed temporal and spatial variability in Antarctic sea ice have been attempted [8][9][10][11][12] , but a thorough understanding is limited because the sparsity of in situ observations and the brevity of the satellite record mean that their temporal uniqueness cannot be easily assessed 13 . Their future change is also uncertain, since coupled climate models used in both the fifth and the recent sixth IPCC assessment reports fail to reproduce the observed increases; instead, most show widespread decreases around Antarctica [14][15][16] .

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Section: Articlesmentioning

confidence: 56%

A regime shift in seasonal total Antarctic sea ice extent in the twentieth century

et al. 2022

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“…Sea ice motion driven by the atmosphere and the ocean (primarily the Weddell gyre) impacts predictability by reducing the skill. Ice motion dominated by synoptic variability is inherently “unpredictable” at the monthly‐to‐seasonal timescales that we consider here; Oceanic advection, especially strong northward drift, reduces predictability skill (Bushuk et al., 2021; M. M. Holland et al., 2013). There may also be some relationship between sea ice variability and the strength of Weddell gyre (Neme et al., 2021) potentially impacting sea ice predictability.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ocean‐Sea Ice Processes and Their Role in Multi‐Month Predictability of Antarctic Sea Ice

Libera

Hobbs

Klocker

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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Antarctic sea ice is a critical component of the climate system and a vital habitat for Southern Ocean ecosystems. Understanding the underlying physical processes and improving Antarctic sea ice prediction is of broad interest. Using the model data, we investigate sea ice and upper ocean predictability at interannual timescales in the Weddell Sea region. We find that oceanic predictability is largely confined to the Winter Water layer and responds to seasonal modifications of the water column, mainly driven by sea ice processes. Predictability depends not only on the depth of the Winter Water layer, but also on how strongly stratified its base is. Predictability is lost when warm Circumpolar Deep Water with no sea ice‐related memory entrains into the mixed layer. We show the strong dependence of sea ice predictability on the local upper ocean vertical structure, which suggests that both are likely to change in a warming climate.

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“…The lower skill for total Antarctic sea ice extent, compared to performance at the regional or sector level, relates to the fact that the total Antarctic sea ice extent is influenced by many regional processes that often offset and or cancel each other, as seen in sea ice extent trends in the Ross Sea compared to the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas 2,16,20 . Similar to the reconstructions, sea ice forecasts perform much better for individual sectors than they do for the total Antarctic-wide sea ice 36 . These sectoral differences are also why a circum-Antarctic proxy-based reconstruction has not been possible, to date 10,26 .…”

Section: Total Antarctic Sea Ice Extent In the 20th Centurymentioning

confidence: 56%

A Regime Shift in Seasonal Total Antarctic Sea Ice Extent in the 20th Century

Fogt

Sleinkofer

Raphael

et al. 2021

Preprint

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In stark contrast to the Arctic, there have been statistically significant positive trends in total Antarctic sea ice extent since 1979, despite a sudden decline in sea ice in 2016(1–5) and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Attributing Antarctic sea ice trends is complicated by the fact that most coupled climate models show negative trends in sea ice extent since 1979, opposite of that observed(6–8). Additionally, the short record of sea ice extent (beginning in 1979), coupled with the high degree of interannual variability, make the record too short to fully understand the historical context of these recent changes(9). Here we show, using new robust observation-based reconstructions, that 1) these observed recent increases in Antarctic sea ice extent are unique in the context of the 20th century and 2) the observed trends are juxtaposed against statistically significant decreases in sea ice extent throughout much of the early and middle 20th century. These reconstructions are the first to provide reliable estimates of total sea ice extent surrounding the continent; previous proxy-based reconstructions are limited(10). Importantly, the reconstructions continue to show the high degree of interannual Antarctic sea ice extent variability that is marked with frequent sudden changes, such as observed in 2016, which stress the importance of a longer historical context when assessing and attributing observed trends in Antarctic climate(9). Our reconstructions are skillful enough to be used in climate models to allow better understanding of the interconnected nature of the Antarctic climate system and to improve predictions of the future state of Antarctic climate.

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Seasonal Prediction and Predictability of Regional Antarctic Sea Ice

Cited by 35 publications

References 94 publications

A regime shift in seasonal total Antarctic sea ice extent in the twentieth century

A regime shift in seasonal total Antarctic sea ice extent in the twentieth century

Ocean‐Sea Ice Processes and Their Role in Multi‐Month Predictability of Antarctic Sea Ice

A Regime Shift in Seasonal Total Antarctic Sea Ice Extent in the 20th Century

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