Seasonal concentration of tourism demand: Decomposition analysis and marketing implications

Abstract

This paper analyzes seasonality in the United Kingdom, specifically the English regions in relation to tourists' place of origin and main travel motivation. The method used is a decomposition of the Gini index, which provides relative marginal effects that facilitate the identification of market segments open to counter-seasonal marketing efforts. This method has been combined with a graphical multivariate technique (biplot), which groups segments according to their seasonality characteristics. Seasonal patterns associated with particular segments differ significantly when studied on a disaggregated basis. Therefore, an adequate level of disaggregation is essential in the design of counter-seasonal strategies. Although this study focuses on British destinations, this methodology could be used as a control and monitoring measure in the regional analysis of any destination, facilitating regular adjustment of regional tourism marketing campaigns to minimize seasonality effects, specifically by targeting the types of tourists less prone to seasonality.

Tourism seasonality worldwide

“…the Seasonality Ratio and the Coefficient of Seasonal Variation). The Gini index is one of the most used for the researchers (Wanhill, 1980;Lundtorp, 2001;Koenig & Bischoff, 2005;Fernández-Morales & Mayorga-Toledano, 2008;Fernández-Morales, Cisneros-Martínez, & McCabe, 2016). This is due to specific characteristics, including it stability, and insensitivity both to changes in the peak months and to outliers.…”

“…The literature has also recently suggested the importance of certain other causes and has given them significant attention. These include the type of tourist product offered by the destination (Cuccia & Rizzo, 2011;Martín, Jiménez Aguilera, & Molina Moreno, 2014), the market structure (Fernández-Morales, Cisneros-Martínez, & McCabe, 2016), and economic variables (Rosselló et al, 2004). This last work analyzed the relationship 7 between monthly concentration and economic determinants (income, prices, and exchange rate) in the Balearic Islands with respect to their two main markets, the British and the German.…”

Differences in Tourist Behaviors across the Seasons: The Case of Northern Indiana

“…With this practical importance, many earlier studies have focused on the reasons and consequences of seasonality in tourism and travel industry [1,6,7,25]. Besides, some studies have been conducted on its measurement and methods to detect the possible seasonality issues in tourism from the perspective of tourism economics or forecasting [13,14,[26][27][28][29]. Besides, many earlier studies used the destination as a unit of analysis for the study, rather than individual tourist [15][16][17].…”

Seasonality determinants for the main markets in Spain

“…Regarding measurement, the literature suggests several possible summary measures. Among these, the Gini index (Gini, ) stands out as being one of the most used (Cisneros‐Martínez, McCabe, & Fernández‐Morales, ; Fernández‐Morales et al, ; Fernández‐Morales & Mayorga‐Toledano, ; Koenig‐Lewis & Bischoff, ; Lundtorp, or Wanhill, ). This is mainly due to some of its well‐known advantages, which include stability, low dependence on changes in the peak months, and lack of sensitivity to outliers.…”

“…The main factors suggested by the researchers as the principal causes of seasonality include natural and institutional factors (Bar‐On, ). Nevertheless, the literature has recently suggested the relevance of certain other factors, such as the type of tourist product offered by the destination (Cuccia & Rizzo, ; Martín, Jiménez & Molina, ), the market structure (Fernández‐Morales, Cisneros‐Martínez, & McCabe, ), or economic variables (Rosselló, Riera, & Sansó, ). Although extensive academic research has investigated these factors from a theoretical perspective, empirical investigation is still sparse.…”