Seafood from a changing Arctic

Troell, Max; Eide, Arne; Isaksen, John Roald; Hermansen, Øystein; Crépin, Anne‐Sophie

doi:10.1007/s13280-017-0954-2

Cited by 21 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…Although our study projected that future Arctic ocean conditions would be suitable for mariculture operations, and could see an increase in MSRP, this region is unlikely to support mariculture development from a conservation and governance perspective. While mariculture operations in the Arctic region contributed about 2% of total world aquaculture production in 2015 (Troell, Eide, Isaksen, Hermansen, & Crepin, ), Arctic ocean ecosystems are generally considered sensitive to human activities (Meier et al, ; Riedel, ). Thus, the expansion of mariculture activities in the Arctic could conceivably have a considerable impact on marine biodiversity and ecosystem functions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting global mariculture diversity under climate change

Oyinlola

Reygondeau

Wabnitz

et al. 2020

Global Change Biology

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Previous studies have focused on changes in the geographical distribution of terrestrial biomes and species targeted by marine capture fisheries due to climate change impacts. Given mariculture's substantial contribution to global seafood production and its growing significance in recent decades, it is essential to evaluate the effects of climate change on mariculture and their socio‐economic consequences. Here, we projected climate change impacts on the marine aquaculture diversity for 85 of the currently most commonly farmed fish and invertebrate species in the world's coastal and/or open ocean areas. Results of ensemble projections from three Earth system models and three species distribution models show that climate change may lead to a substantial redistribution of mariculture species richness potential, with an average of 10%–40% decline in the number of species being potentially suitable to be farmed in tropical to subtropical regions. In contrast, mariculture species richness potential is projected to increase by about 40% at higher latitudes under the ‘no mitigation policy’ scenario (RCP 8.5) by the mid‐21st century. In Exclusive Economic Zones where mariculture is currently undertaken, we projected an average future decline of 1.3% and 5% in mariculture species richness potential under RCP 2.6 (‘strong mitigation’) and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the 2050s relative to the 2000s. Our findings highlight the opportunities and challenges for climate adaptation in the mariculture sector through the redistribution of farmed species and expansion of mariculture locations. Our results can help inform adaptation planning and governance mechanisms to minimize local environmental impacts and potential conflicts with other marine and coastal sectors in the future.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting global mariculture diversity under climate change

Oyinlola

Reygondeau

Wabnitz

et al. 2020

Global Change Biology

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“…But industry activities were not static. Availability of fisheries resources in Arctic waters can be variable (e.g., Haug et al, 2017;Troell et al, 2017). Therefore, the extent and locations of vessel operations associated with these resources will likewise vary.…”

Section: Fishing Vessels and Effortmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vessel Operations in the Arctic, 2015–2017

Silber¹,

Adams

2019

Front. Mar. Sci.

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The Arctic is among the most rapidly-changing regions on Earth. Diminishing levels of sea-ice has increased opportunities for maritime activities in historically inaccessible areas such as the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage. Degradation of Arctic marine ecosystems may accompany expanding vessel operations through introduced underwater noise, potential for large oil spills, among other things; and may compound stressors already effecting biological populations due to climate change. Assessments are needed to track changes in vessel traffic patterns and associated environmental impacts. We analyzed Arctic-wide vessel Automatic Identification System data 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2017 to quantify the amount and spatial distribution of vessel operations, assess possible changes in these operations, and establish a baseline for future monitoring. Nearly 400,000 vessel transits were analyzed. Number of trips, hours of operation, and amount of sea surface exposed to vessel traffic were used to compare operations between 14 delineated waterways. Operations were extensive and diverse: an average of 132,828 trips were made annually by over 5,000 different vessels. Transits were made in all areas studied and all months of the year. Maritime activities were intensive in some areas, but ice-limited in others. Amount of sea surface exposed to vessel traffic exceeded 70% in all but three areas. Bulk carriers, cargo ships, passenger/cruise ships, research survey ships, and vessels supporting oil/gas-related activities were represented. However, fishing vessels, primarily in the Barents, Bering, and Norwegian Seas, surpassed operations of all other vessel types and comprised about one-half of all voyages each year. We observed no overt increasing or decreasing trends in vessel traffic volume in our limited study period. Instead, inter-year variation was evident. While the number of unique vessels and transits increased year-to-year, hours of operation declined in the same period. Abundance/distribution of fisheries resources, economic feasibility of Arctic marine travel as weighed against inherent risks, and other factors likely accounted for inter-year variation in regional activity levels. Measures have been established to protect Arctic marine ecosystems but may need strengthening to address potential ecosystem threats from existing and growing commercial and industrial activities in the region.

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“…Their impacts are substantial in the Arctic and likely to continue to affect Arctic development through changes in global climate and market prices of Arctic resources (e.g. Morgenroth 2014 ; Arctic Council 2016 ; Petrick et al 2017 ; Troell et al 2017 ). Climate change directly affects the Arctic through changed weather and sea ice conditions, impacting on water salinity, acidity, and temperature (Polyakov et al 2012 ; Parkinson and Comiso 2013 ; Vihma et al 2013 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Sea ice reduction improves access to the Arctic, which favours shipping (IPCC 2014 ), tourism (Hamilton et al 2005 ) and resource extraction (Petrick et al 2017 ), despite substantial remaining challenges regarding profitability, safety and the lack of infrastructure (Petrick et al 2017 ). The direct impacts on fish stocks will probably benefit fishing activities and aquaculture in the region (Troell et al 2017 ). In contrast, indirect effects are less investigated.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Operationalising a social–ecological system perspective on the Arctic Ocean

Crépin

Gren

Engström

et al. 2017

Ambio

Self Cite

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We propose a framework to support management that builds on a social–ecological system perspective on the Arctic Ocean. We illustrate the framework’s application for two policy-relevant scenarios of climate-driven change, picturing a shift in zooplankton composition and alternatively a crab invasion. We analyse archetypical system dynamics between the socio-economic, the natural, and the governance systems in these scenarios. Our holistic approach can help managers identify looming problems arising from complex system interactions and prioritise among problems and solutions, even when available data are limited.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-017-0960-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Seafood from a changing Arctic

Cited by 21 publications

References 63 publications

Projecting global mariculture diversity under climate change

Projecting global mariculture diversity under climate change

Vessel Operations in the Arctic, 2015–2017

Operationalising a social–ecological system perspective on the Arctic Ocean

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