Projecting global mariculture diversity under climate change

Abstract

Previous studies have focused on changes in the geographical distribution of terrestrial biomes and species targeted by marine capture fisheries due to climate change impacts. Given mariculture's substantial contribution to global seafood production and its growing significance in recent decades, it is essential to evaluate the effects of climate change on mariculture and their socio‐economic consequences. Here, we projected climate change impacts on the marine aquaculture diversity for 85 of the currently most commonly farmed fish and invertebrate species in the world's coastal and/or open ocean areas. Results of ensemble projections from three Earth system models and three species distribution models show that climate change may lead to a substantial redistribution of mariculture species richness potential, with an average of 10%–40% decline in the number of species being potentially suitable to be farmed in tropical to subtropical regions. In contrast, mariculture species richness potential is projected to increase by about 40% at higher latitudes under the ‘no mitigation policy’ scenario (RCP 8.5) by the mid‐21st century. In Exclusive Economic Zones where mariculture is currently undertaken, we projected an average future decline of 1.3% and 5% in mariculture species richness potential under RCP 2.6 (‘strong mitigation’) and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the 2050s relative to the 2000s. Our findings highlight the opportunities and challenges for climate adaptation in the mariculture sector through the redistribution of farmed species and expansion of mariculture locations. Our results can help inform adaptation planning and governance mechanisms to minimize local environmental impacts and potential conflicts with other marine and coastal sectors in the future.

Micronutrient supply from global marine fisheries under climate change and overfishing

“…30,31 Overall, the future of all capture fisheries (e.g., non-fed aquatic animals) under climate change is expected to decrease in production, 4,[32][33][34] and although there is scope for compensation through aquaculture, 35 associated changes in micronutrient concentrations remain poorly understood. Integrating micronutrient content of fish with bioclimate models of global fisheries 32 and aquaculture 36 production may help to identify regions that will face sharp declines in micronutrient supply in the future due to climate change.…”

Carbon Dioxide Removal via Macroalgae Open-ocean Mariculture and Sinking: An Earth System Modeling Study

“…Thus, some proposals have focused on using harvested macroalgae for producing biochar (Roberts et al, 2015;Bird et al, 2011) or bio-energy combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS, Chung et al (2011); Buschmann et al (2017); Gao and McKinley (1994); Chen et al (2015); Fernand et al (2017)). However, as current macroalgae aquaculture facilities are mainly located in coastal regions, the scope to expand macroalgae aquaculture is limited by the shortage of suitable coastal areas due to nutrient availability and shifting temperature regimes (Duarte et al, 2017;Oyinlola et al, 2020). To address these issues, several offshore macroalgae aquaculture facilities have been designed and evaluated (e.g.…”

Projecting global mariculture production and adaptation pathways under climate change

“…Climate change renders the future expansion of mariculture production uncertain. Previous studies suggest that climate change will reduce the area currently being used and considered suitable for mariculture (Froehlich et al, 2018; Oyinlola et al, 2020). Indeed, species‐specific suitable mariculture ocean conditions (e.g.…”