Sea surface temperature and sea ice variability in the subpolar North Atlantic from explosive volcanism of the late thirteenth century

Sicre, Marie‐Alexandrine; Khodri, Myriam; Mignot, Juliette; Eiríksson, Jón; Knudsen, Karen Luise; Ezat, Ullah; Closset, Ivia; Nogues, P.; Massé, Guillaume

doi:10.1002/2013gl057282

Cited by 18 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…In addition to comparing CESM results to output from current Model Intercomparison Projects, we also compare them to results from a similar simulation with CCSM4 (Landrum et al, 2013) and IPSL-CM5A-LR (Institut Pierre Simon Laplace-climate model 5A-low resolution) (Sicre et al, 2013), two simulations without interactive carbon cycle. The solar and volcanic forcing reconstructions applied to CCSM4 and IPSL-CM5A-LR are identical to ours with the exception of the scaling of TSI that we applied to CESM.…”

Section: Other Model Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850 to 2100 CE

et al. 2015

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Abstract. Under the protocols of phase 3 of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project, a number of simulations were produced that provide a range of potential climate evolutions from the last millennium to the end of the current century. Here, we present the first simulation with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), which includes an interactive carbon cycle, that covers the last millennium. The simulation is continued to the end of the twenty-first century. Besides state-of-the-art forcing reconstructions, we apply a modified reconstruction of total solar irradiance to shed light on the issue of forcing uncertainty in the context of the last millennium. Nevertheless, we find that structural uncertainties between different models can still dominate over forcing uncertainty for quantities such as hemispheric temperatures or the land and ocean carbon cycle response. Compared to other model simulations, we find forced decadal-scale variability to occur mainly after volcanic eruptions, while during other periods internal variability masks potentially forced signals and calls for larger ensembles in paleoclimate modeling studies. At the same time, we were not able to attribute millennial temperature trends to orbital forcing, as has been suggested recently. The climate-carbon-cycle sensitivity in CESM during the last millennium is estimated to be between 1.0 and 2.1 ppm • C −1 . However, the dependence of this sensitivity on the exact time period and scale illustrates the prevailing challenge of deriving robust constraints on this quantity from paleoclimate proxies. In particular, the response of the land carbon cycle to volcanic forcing shows fundamental differences between different models. In CESM the tropical land dictates the response to volcanoes, with a distinct behavior for large and moderate eruptions. Under anthropogenic emissions, global land and ocean carbon uptake rates emerge from the envelope of interannual natural variability by about year 1947 and 1877, respectively, as simulated for the last millennium.

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Section: Other Model Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850 to 2100 CE

et al. 2015

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“…1 ka (Ogilvie and Jónsson, 2001). The outcomes from this initial study by Massé et al (2008) were subsequently reinforced by analysis of three further cores from N, NW and SW Iceland (Andrews et al, 2009a;Axford et al, 2011;Sicre et al, 2013).…”

Section: -Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Variability in drift ice export from the Arctic Ocean to the North Icelandic Shelf over the last 8000 years: A multi-proxy evaluation

Cabedo‐Sanz

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Jennings

et al. 2016

Quaternary Science Reviews

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North Iceland represents a climatically sensitive region, in part, due to its location at the confluence of southward flowing and drift ice-laden polar waters from the Arctic Ocean delivered by the East Greenland Current, and the relatively warm and saline Irminger Current, a northerly flowing branch of the North Atlantic Current. Despite its pivotal location, there is a paucity of high resolution and long-term sea ice records for the region, with some disparities in certain previous investigations. Here, the identification of the biomarker IP 25 as a reliable proxy for drift ice for North Iceland has been confirmed by measuring its abundance in surface sediments from the region and comparison of outcomes with documentary records of sea ice and other proxy data. By analysing IP 25 in a well-dated marine sediment core from the North Icelandic Shelf (NIS) (MD99-2269), we also provide a high resolution (ca. 25 yr) record of drift sea ice for the region and complement this with a lower resolution record (ca. 100 yr) obtained from a second core site, located further east (JR51-GC35). Statistical treatment of equi-spaced time series reveals strong linear correlations between IP 25 and a further drift ice proxy (quartz) in each core. Thus, linear regression analysis between both proxies gave correlation coefficients (R 2) of 0.74 and 0.66 for MD99-2269 (25 yr) and JR51-GC35 (100 yr), respectively. Further, the individual proxies were well correlated between the two cores, with R=0.91 and 0.77 for IP 25 and quartz, respectively. The IP 25-based sea ice record for MD99-2269, combined with other new biomarker and foraminifera data, and previously published proxy data for primary productivity and sea surface temperature, suggest that the paleoceanographic evolution for the NIS over the last 8 ka can be classified into three main intervals. The early mid Holocene (ca 8-6.2 cal ka BP) was characterized by relatively low or absent drift ice, low primary productivity and relatively high SSTs. During the mid-Holocene (ca 6.2-3.3 cal ka BP), drift ice increased concomitant with decreasing SSTs, although primary productivity was

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“…Integrated assessment of reconstructions and simulations has led to progress in model evaluation and process understanding (e.g. Lehner et al, 2013;Sicre et al, 2013;Jungclaus et al, 2014;Man et al, 2012;Man and Zhou, 2014). The increasing number of available simulations and reconstructions has also created a need for development of new statistical modelling approaches dedicated to model-data comparison analysis (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 3: The last millennium, scientific objective, and experimental design for the PMIP4 <i>past1000</i> simulations

et al. 2017

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Sea surface temperature and sea ice variability in the subpolar North Atlantic from explosive volcanism of the late thirteenth century

Cited by 18 publications

References 41 publications

Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850 to 2100 CE

Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850 to 2100 CE

Variability in drift ice export from the Arctic Ocean to the North Icelandic Shelf over the last 8000 years: A multi-proxy evaluation

The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 3: The last millennium, scientific objective, and experimental design for the PMIP4 <i>past1000</i> simulations

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Sea surface temperature and sea ice variability in the subpolar North Atlantic from explosive volcanism of the late thirteenth century

Cited by 18 publications

References 41 publications

Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850 to 2100 CE

Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850 to 2100 CE

Variability in drift ice export from the Arctic Ocean to the North Icelandic Shelf over the last 8000 years: A multi-proxy evaluation

The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 3: The last millennium, scientific objective, and experimental design for the PMIP4 &lt;i&gt;past1000&lt;/i&gt; simulations

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The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 3: The last millennium, scientific objective, and experimental design for the PMIP4 <i>past1000</i> simulations