Sea level rise impacts on rice production: The Ebro Delta as an example

Genua‐Olmedo, Ana; Alcaraz, Carles; Caiola, Nuño; Ibáñez, Carles

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.07.136

Cited by 52 publications

(55 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…However, to our knowledge this is the first time that the contribution of extremes has been solved in the Mediterranean Sea using high resolution projections and combining mean SLR, the joint effect of extremes and vertical land movements. Besides, this study extends and complements previous works already performed in the Ebro Delta that analyzed the risk of flooding under different relative sea level rise scenarios (e.g., Alvarado‐Aguilar et al, ; Fatorić & Chelleri, ; Genua‐Olmedo et al, ; Ibáñez et al, ; Jiménez et al, ; Sánchez‐Arcilla et al, ), by considering mid‐term sea level variability (seasonal and inter‐annual) and a more accurate impact of extremes. To conclude, a range of uncertainties is given for sea level rise induced by extreme events.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 74%

“…Saltwater wetland, saline vegetation and riparian buffers will be the main affected zones, while urban areas are poorly impacted according to this study (Alvarado‐Aguilar et al, ). More recently Genua‐Olmedo et al () studied the effects of SLR on soil salinity of Ebro Delta and their impact on rice crops. To do this, they used RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, mean and high SLR.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Indeed, our results should be understood as an indication of the consequences of SLR and marine extremes if no actions are undertaken. The protection plan of Ebro Delta may consider the construction of dikes, which Genua‐Olmedo et al () quantified in 1.5 m height. Other studies have suggested solutions more in harmony with nature, such as to increase substantially river discharge of sediments, the protection of dunes and the creation of new ones (Fatorić & Chelleri, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It includes a National Natural Park with rich biodiversity hosting one of the largest populations of birds in Europe. Farming is at the core of the Ebro Delta economy with more than 75% of its area dedicated to agriculture, and 65% focused on rice production (Genua-Olmedo et al, 2016). Additionally it is a centre of several economic activities including the exploitation of salt marshes, fishing, hunting, and more recently aquaculture and tourism (Fatorić & Chelleri, 2012;S anchez-Arcilla et al, 1996).…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to the Ebro Delta (Spain)

Sayol

Marcos

2018

JGR Oceans

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This study presents a novel methodology to estimate the impact of local sea level rise and extreme surges and waves in coastal areas under climate change scenarios. The methodology is applied to the Ebro Delta, a valuable and vulnerable low‐lying wetland located in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. Projections of local sea level accounting for all contributions to mean sea level changes, including thermal expansion, dynamic changes, fresh water addition and glacial isostatic adjustment, have been obtained from regionalized sea level projections during the 21st century. Particular attention has been paid to the uncertainties, which have been derived from the spread of the multi‐model ensemble combined with seasonal/inter‐annual sea level variability from local tide gauge observations. Besides vertical land movements have also been integrated to estimate local relative sea level rise. On the other hand, regional projections over the Mediterranean basin of storm surges and wind‐waves have been used to evaluate changes in extreme events. The compound effects of surges and extreme waves have been quantified using their joint probability distributions. Finally, offshore sea level projections from extreme events superimposed to mean sea level have been propagated onto a high resolution digital elevation model of the study region in order to construct flood hazards maps for mid and end of the 21st century and under two different climate change scenarios. The effect of each contribution has been evaluated in terms of percentage of the area exposed to coastal hazards, which will help to design more efficient protection and adaptation measures.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 74%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to the Ebro Delta (Spain)

Sayol

Marcos

2018

JGR Oceans

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“…Similarly, Dasgupta et al (2014) estimates that rice yields will fall by 15.6 percent in by 2050 in 9 coastal districts in Bangladesh due to climate induced increases in salinity. Genua-Olmedo et al (2016) finds that in the Ebro Delta in Northeast Spain, rice productivity will fall by up to 50 percent by 2100 due to the effects of sea-level rise on soil salinity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%