Sea level rise and tigers: predicted impacts to Bangladesh’s Sundarbans mangroves

Abstract

The Sundarbans mangrove ecosystem, shared by India and Bangladesh, is recognized as a global priority for biodiversity conservation. Sea level rise, due to climate change, threatens the long term persistence of the Sundarbans forests and its biodiversity. Among the forests' biota is the only tiger (Panthera tigris) population in the world adapted for life in mangrove forests. Prior predictions on the impacts of sea level rise on the Sundarbans have been hampered by coarse elevation data in this low-lying region, where every centimeter counts. Using high resolution elevation data, we estimate that with a 28 cm rise above 2000 sea levels, remaining Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (292 Climatic Change (2010) 98:291-298tiger habitat in Bangladesh's Sundarbans would decline by 96% and the number of breeding individuals would be reduced to less than 20. Assuming current sea level rise predictions and local conditions do not change, a 28 cm sea level rise is likely to occur in the next 50-90 years. If actions to both limit green house gas emissions and increase resilience of the Sundarbans are not initiated soon, the tigers of the Sundarbans may join the Arctic's polar bears (Ursus maritimus) as early victims of climate change-induced habitat loss.

Projected changes in area of the Sundarban mangrove forest in Bangladesh due to SLR by 2100

“…The simulated mangrove losses due to RSLR by the end of 21 st century at the Bangladesh Sundarbans are much smaller than earlier estimates (e.g., Huq et al 1995;Loucks et al 2010), which are widely reported in discussions about Bangladesh and SLR. For example, Colette (2007) suggested that a 45 cm rise in global sea level by 2100 might lead to the destruction of 75 % of the Sundarbans mangroves suggesting significant differences on the DEM used in different studies; the DEM used by Loucks et al (2010) suggest that most of the Sundarbans will be below MSL for a SLR of +28 cm.…”

“…For example, Colette (2007) suggested that a 45 cm rise in global sea level by 2100 might lead to the destruction of 75 % of the Sundarbans mangroves suggesting significant differences on the DEM used in different studies; the DEM used by Loucks et al (2010) suggest that most of the Sundarbans will be below MSL for a SLR of +28 cm. However, in our study this level of inundation is only observed for the most extreme scenario (Fig.…”

“…For example, Huq et al (1995), in a preliminary analysis with very limited information, suggested that Bone meter rise in mean sea level will probably lead to the destruction of the Sundarbans by its complete inundation^. Loucks et al (2010) estimated that most of the Bangladesh Sundarbans area will be below MSL if a 0.28 m increase above the MSL in the year 2000 occurs in the next 50-90 years, assuming no change in the current local conditions (i.e., the net increase in elevation remains in the range 4-7.8 mm/year). Lovelock et al (2015) developed a model (hereafter referred to as the BLovelock model^) to predict the time to submergence of a mangrove ecosystem subject to accelerated SLR based on the concept of the loss of Belevation capital^, the potential of a mangrove ecosystem to remain within a suitable inundation regime (between Highest Astronomical Tide and MSL).…”

Disaster Management Discourse in Bangladesh: A Shift from Post-Event Response to the Preparedness and Mitigation Approach Through Institutional Partnerships

“…The geographical location of Bangladesh in South Asia, at the confluence of three large river systems -the Brahmaputra, the Ganges, and the Meghna -and north of the Bay of Bengal, renders it one of the most vulnerable places to floods and cyclones. Human-induced climate change exacerbates the problem, with its already manifested effects and the predicted rise in sea level of 0.3 m to 0.5 m by 2050 [1,2,3]. Climate models have revealed that the effects of climate change are not only affecting individual countries, but resulting in increased climate variations at regional levels [4].…”

Assessing Species Vulnerability to Climate Change in Tropical Asia: Implications for Biodiversity Conservation and Forest Management

“…In this study, we have addressed this research gap by modelling the habitat suitability of four large threatened mammals under different climate scenarios across their entire distribution range. (Table 1 and Table A1for details), and their main threats are the combined effects of habitat loss, forest fragmentation, human interference, hunting and global climate change (Alamgir et al 2015;IUCN 2016;Loucks et al 2010;Srinivasulu & Srinivasulu 2012). These species are already extinct locally in several countries, and the remaining disjunct populations are declining (IUCN 2016;Sala et al 2000;Thomas et al 2004).…”