Projected changes in area of the Sundarban mangrove forest in Bangladesh due to SLR by 2100

Payo, Andrés; Mukhopadhyay, Anirban; Hazra, Sugata; Ghosh, Tuhin; Ghosh, Suchismita; Brown, Sally; Nicholls, Robert J.; Bricheno, Lucy; Wolf, Judith; Kay, Susan; Lázár, Attila N.; Haque, Anisul

doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1769-z

Cited by 97 publications

(61 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Another effect of channel closures has been the loss of annual sedimentation previously supplied by the tides, which had sustained the elevation of the local deltaplain relative to rising sea levels (Payo et al, 2016). These tidal conduits for sediment delivery hold the key for potential restoration of the many poldered islands that lie at a significant elevation deficit due to sediment starvation and shallow compaction from embankment construction and land use practices (Figure 6; Auerbach et al, 2015).…”

Section: Sustaining the Ganges-brahmaputra Tidal Deltaplain: Land Usementioning

confidence: 99%

Widespread infilling of tidal channels and navigable waterways in the human-modified tidal deltaplain of southwest Bangladesh

Wilson

Goodbred

Small

et al. 2017

Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene

125

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Wilson, C, et al. 2017 Widespread infilling of tidal channels and navigable waterways in the human-modified tidal deltaplain of southwest Bangladesh. Elem Sci Anth, 5: 78. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.263 RESEARCH ARTICLEWidespread infilling of tidal channels and navigable waterways in the human-modified tidal deltaplain of southwest Bangladesh Since the 1960s, ~5000 km 2 of tidal deltaplain in southwest Bangladesh has been embanked and converted to densely inhabited, agricultural islands (i.e., polders). This landscape is juxtaposed to the adjacent Sundarbans, a pristine mangrove forest, both well connected by a dense network of tidal channels that effectively convey water and sediment throughout the region. The extensive embanking in poldered areas, however, has greatly reduced the tidal prism (i.e., volume of water) transported through local channels. We reveal that >600 km of these major waterways have infilled in recent decades, converting to land through enhanced sedimentation and the direct blocking of waterways by embankments and sluice gates. Nearly all of the observed closures (~98%) have occurred along the embanked polder systems, with no comparable changes occurring in channels of the Sundarbans (<2% change). We attribute most of the channel infilling to the local reduction of tidal prism in poldered areas and the associated decline in current velocities. The infilled channels account for ~90 km 2 of new land in the last 40-50 years, the rate of which, ~2 km 2 /yr, offsets the 4 km 2 /yr that is eroded at the coast, and is equivalent to ~20% of the new land produced naturally at the Ganges-Brahmaputra tidal rivermouth. Most of this new land, called 'khas' in Bengali, has been reclaimed for agriculture or aquaculture, contributing to the local economy. However, benefits are tempered by the loss of navigable waterways for commerce, transportation, and fishing, as well as the forced rerouting of tidal waters and sediments necessary to sustain this low-lying landscape against rising sea level. A more sustainable delta will require detailed knowledge of the consequences of these hydrodynamic changes to support more scientifically-grounded management of water, sediment, and tidal energy distribution.

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Section: Sustaining the Ganges-brahmaputra Tidal Deltaplain: Land Usementioning

confidence: 99%

Widespread infilling of tidal channels and navigable waterways in the human-modified tidal deltaplain of southwest Bangladesh

Wilson

Goodbred

Small

et al. 2017

Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene

125

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Sea level rise is estimated at 3.14 mm/year which is higher than the global average of 0.5 to 3 mm (Hazra et al 2010). By 2100, sea level rise is predicted to lie between 0.46 and 1.5 m and could well submerge parts of the delta (Payo et al 2016). Sea surface temperatures (particularly important for mangrove growth) in the Bay of Bengal have shown a decadal increase of 0.13-0.15°C/10 in the period from 1961 to 2000 (Jadhav and Munot 2007) leading to changes in cyclone patterns and coastal ecology (Hazra et al 2010;Jadhav and Munot 2007).…”

Section: The Sundarbansmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and uncertainty from ‘above’ and ‘below’: perspectives from India

et al. 2019

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Climate-related uncertainty refers to the inability to predict the scale, intensity, and impact of climate change on human and natural environments. Debates of uncertainty in climate change have emerged as a 'super wicked' problem for scientists and policy makers alike. The article draws on ongoing research in different socio-ecological and cultural settings in India (Kutch, the Sundarbans and Mumbai) and introduces the heuristic of the 'above', 'middle' and 'below' to explore how climate change and uncertainty are understood and experienced by diverse actors. Responses from 'above' (especially by planners and policy makers) tend to be directed towards controlling uncertainty through top-down, techno-managerial solutions whereas scientists tend to rely on quantitative assessments and models based on probabilistic scenarios. These may have little to do with the experiences and lived realities of local people, especially in the global South, who are often at the frontline of climate change. Also at the local level, climate-related uncertainties seldom stand alone, rather they closely interact with other socio-economic drivers of change that create new uncertainties and vulnerabilities, especially for poor and powerless people constraining their adaptation choices. This article demonstrates deep differences in ways different actors understand and experience climate change and uncertainty. It argues that diverse knowledge and approaches need to be deployed to understand and embrace climate related uncertainties in order to facilitate socially just adaptation.

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“…It is known as one of the most diverse and productive ecosystems in the world (Borrell et al 2016). Apart from being a unique ecosystem, Sundarbans provide extensive protection to coastal populations from cyclones, tidal flooding, erosion and other natural disasters (Das and Vincent 2009;Payo (November 17, 2007) and Aila (May 25, 2009), Sundarbans acted as a protective barrier for the coastal communities (Islam 2013;Bhowmik and Cabral 2013). This forest consists of 200 islands, detached by 400 inter connected tidal rivers and canals (Banglapedia 2010).…”

Section: Sundarbans Mangrove and Its Role In National Economymentioning

confidence: 99%

Sundarbans mangrove forest of Bangladesh: causes of degradation and sustainable management options

Islam

Bhuiyan

2018

Environmental Sustainability

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Sundarbans are highly productive mangrove wetland ecosystems, contributing several social, financial and environmental benefits. The forests have a great role in the countries national economy, and provides livelihood for the local people through fishing, tourism, wood and non-wood products. But despite several laws, policies and management plans, the forest is now showing clear signs of degradation. The aim of this study is to explore the major causes of degradation of Sundarbans mangrove forest in Bangladesh and to propose a management approach for its sustenance. It was found that, biodiversity and ecosystem of the Sundarbans is threatened due to several natural and human induced pressures, including overexploitation of forest resources, changes in coastal land use, pollution from industrial and agricultural sources, oil spillage, upstream water flow reduction, increased salinity level, disease outbreaks, fire occurrence, climate change, rise in sea level, natural disasters, lack of knowledge about forest conservation, uncontrolled tourism, inadequate planning and management, and increase in man-animal conflicts. In this background, an integrated approach is proposed, by refining the existing management and combining updated information through supplementary scientific studies and expeditions on mangrove forests. Proper implementation of the proposed resilient strategies i.e., incorporate all stakeholders to protect the forest, awareness programs, reduced forest dependency of local people, strengthen monitoring, ecological restoration, implementation of legal bindings, disaster management and adequate research and planning can be helpful for sustainable management of Sundarbans and similar mangrove forests around the world.

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Projected changes in area of the Sundarban mangrove forest in Bangladesh due to SLR by 2100

Cited by 97 publications

References 19 publications

Widespread infilling of tidal channels and navigable waterways in the human-modified tidal deltaplain of southwest Bangladesh

Widespread infilling of tidal channels and navigable waterways in the human-modified tidal deltaplain of southwest Bangladesh

Climate change and uncertainty from ‘above’ and ‘below’: perspectives from India

Sundarbans mangrove forest of Bangladesh: causes of degradation and sustainable management options

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