Scottish tourism: Scenarios and vision

Abstract

In order to understand the potential for tourism in Scotland, it is important to look beyond the near future. Four scenarios have been created that paint contrasting pictures of Scottish tourism in 2015. The ‘Dynamic’ scenario creates a £10bn tourism economy with tourism being the number-one industry in Scotland. The ‘Weekend Get away’ sees tourism based upon consumerism and play. The value of tourism in this scenario is £7.6bn. ‘Yesterday’s Destination’ means tourism is based upon the past, and the industry is found to be too complacent. An uncompetitve industry means that growth is only 1 per cent per annum and valued at £5.1bn. Finally, ‘Exclusive Scotland’ means that the Scottish economy has failed as deflation has taken the soul out of the country but favourable exchange rates mean that international high-spending tourists flock to exclusive resorts. Tourism in this scenario is a £2.6bn industry. These four scenarios follow different paths and are driven by different circumstances. But within all of the scenarios, tourism exists. The opportunity for Scotland is to maximise its potential in order that tourism is Scotland’s first and everlasting industry. The paper begins with a commentary by Peter Lederer.

The Implicit Effect of Distance on Tourist Behavior: a Comparison of Short and Long Haul Pleasure Tourists to Hong Kong

“…Lue, Crompton, and Fesenmaier (1993) and Tideswell and Faulkner add that risk averse travelers tended to travel shorter distances and make fewer stops, while Hanink and White (1999) observed people who were willing to assume a greater element of risk traveled longer distances, but spread the risk among multiple destinations. Yeoman and Lederer (2005) further discuss the aspirational nature of much long haul travel and how it is viewed as a rare, often once-in-a-lifetime occurrence. Short haul travel, by extension, is more common and the motives are more escapist or recreation-oriented.…”

Oil depletion: What does this mean for Scottish tourism?

“…Although scenario planning has been used in tourism much of the work is confidential and has not been published. What has been published has in the main stems from the authors of this paper (Hay & Yeoman, 2005;Yeoman, 2004;Yeoman & Lederer, 2005;Yeoman et al, 2005a, b). VisitScotland's holistic approach to scenario planning involves environmental scanning, scenario construction and economic modelling in order to drive policy and strategy.…”

“…One of the keys to that growth is transport (Yeoman & Lederer, 2005), a sector that is dependent upon oil. It is the low cost model of the budget carrier which is driving the growth of Scottish tourism.…”

Long-Haul Travel Motivation by International Tourist to Penang

“…According to McKercher and du Cros [18], long-haul tourists were most likely willing to enter a culturally diferent atmosphere and tend to travel further. Long-haul tourists view their trips as opportunities for learning and personal development as well as seeing it in the context of a rare, often once-in-a-lifetime occurrence [33][34]. Bao and McKercher [2] stated that there were similarities between long-haul tourists and backpackers, such as ability to travel independently, limited budget, simple accommodation and travel patern.…”