Scheduling projects with stochastic activity duration to maximize expected net present value

Sobel, Milton; Szmerekovsky, Joseph G.; Tilson, Vera

doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2008.10.004

Cited by 82 publications

(67 citation statements)

References 19 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Thus, this article extends the work of Buss and Rosenblatt [6], Benati [5], Sobel et al [34] and Creemers et al [10], who focus on duration risk only, and of Schmidt and Grossmann [33], Jain and Grossmann [21] and De Reyck and Leus [12], who look into technical risk only (although Schmidt and Grossmann [33] also explore the possibility of introducing multiple discrete duration scenarios).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…For a given selection of such 'information flows' between activities (under the form of additional precedence constraints), a latestart schedule is then optimal when the activity durations are known. Unfortunately, late-start scheduling is difficult to implement in case of stochastic durations, and Sobel et al [34] implicitly restrict their attention to scheduling policies that start activities only at the end of other activities. Buss and Rosenblatt [6] partially relax this restriction by starting an activity only after a fixed time interval (delay), but they do not decide which sets of activities to start at what time (all eligible activities are started as soon as possible after their delay).…”

Section: Policy Classmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Buss and Rosenblatt [6], Sobel et al [34] and Creemers et al [10] investigate an eNPV objective and use the CTMC described by Kulkarni and Adklakha as a starting point for their algorithms. A similar problem is studied by Benati [5], who proposes a heuristic scheduling rule.…”

Section: Policy Classmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Project planning with alternative technologies in uncertain environments

Creemers

Reyck

Leus

2015

European Journal of Operational Research

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract:We investigate project scheduling with stochastic activity durations to maximize the expected net present value. Individual activities also carry a risk of failure, which can cause the overall project to fail. In the project planning literature, such technological uncertainty is typically ignored and project plans are developed only for scenarios in which the project succeeds. To mitigate the risk that an activity's failure jeopardizes the entire project, more than one alternative may exist for reaching the project's objectives. We propose a model that incorporates both the risk of activity failure and the possible pursuit of alternative technologies. We find optimal solutions to the scheduling problem by means of stochastic dynamic programming. Our algorithms prescribe which alternatives need to be explored, and how they should be scheduled. We also examine the impact of the variability of the activity durations on the project's value.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Policy Classmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Project planning with alternative technologies in uncertain environments

Creemers

Reyck

Leus

2015

European Journal of Operational Research

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In [14] the authors minimized total project costs subject to deadline constraints, considering a "what if" scenarios. In [22] the authors strove to find project schedule which maximizes the expected present value of project cash flows.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Minimization of direct costs in the construction of torrent control structures

et al. 2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Original scientific paperThe most important elements in the planning of the implementation of the torrent (flood) control projects which need to be estimated are time, costs (budget) and resource required. These three elements are interactive: a shorter duration of structure construction causes additional resources engagement and increased costs, and vice versa -greater costs provide a shorter duration of construction. This paper analysis direct project cost minimization for four torrent control projects. The construction duration and the dynamic plan of project activities have been determined using the CPM method of network planning. The optimization problem -minimization of direct cost of construction subject to constraints such as: given deadline, precedence constraints, and upper and lower bounded duration time of activities is solved using linear programming and Matlab toolbox. Our results show that applied methods ensure significant cost savings, which is an important challenge in the construction management. Keywords: cost minimization; CPM method; linear programming; torrent control Minimiziranje direktnih troškova izgradnje objekata za zaštitu od poplavaIzvorni znanstveni članak Najvažniji elemeni u planiranju provedbe projekata kontrole od bujica (poplava) su procjena vremena, troškova (buđžeta) i resursa. Ova tri elementa su interaktivna: kraće trajanje izgradnje strukture uzrokuje angažman dodatnih resursa i povećanje troškova i obrnuto, veći troškovi dovode do kraćeg trajanja gradnje. Ovaj rad se bavi minimiziranjem direktnih troškova projekta na primjeru četiri projekta kontrole bujičnih poplava. Trajanje gradnje i dinamički plan projektnih aktivnosti su određeni pomoću CMP metode mrežnog planiranja. Optimizacijski problem -minimiziranje direktnih troškova gradnje, uz ograničenja kao što su: zadan rok, redoslijed aktivnosti, gornja i donja ograničenja vremena trajanja aktivnosti, riješen je primjenom linearnog programiranja i sučelja Matlaba. Dobiveni rezultati pokazuju da primijenjene metode osiguravaju značajne uštede što je važan izazov organizacije građenja.

show abstract

“…Many attempts have been conducted to improve the project scheduling prediction [2][3][4][5][6], and each of them endeavors to offer an optimized schedule for a given project. Simulation is one of the techniques that has been successfully applied to project planning, e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%