In this paper, the risk zone mapping of declining lowland forests belonging to „Morović“, management unit „Varadin-Županja“ (northern Serbia) is performed using geostatistics analysis. Based on the monitoring of groundwater level, the Kriging method has been performed for the spatial distribution of groundwater level for a multiyear period (2010–2013) – reference level and characteristic levels for the wettest and the driest year during the analyzed period. Risk assessment was determined by the variance of characteristics compared to reference levels. Then, multi-criteria decision analysis methods (AHP, PROMETHEE II) were applied to define the rank of each department (smaller forest management units) located in the research area. These analyses are very important because they enable to locate of the area with a high risk of forest decline and to rank departments using criteria: deviation from water level recorded during dry periods, species demand for water, conservation status and purpose of the unit (seed stands or technical wood). The proposed methodology is usable for the determination of the primary localities for the application of management measures conducting on the level of lower planned units (departments) and thus lead to the successful planning and more efficient forest management. Obtained results at the researched area showed that a negative influence on the watering regime has groundwater level decreasing compared to the reference level because it directly affects available water for the plants. Based on multicriteria analysis methods, it was deduced that the most endangered parts are located at the edge, while this risk is much lower in the central part of the management unit. A combination of applied methods (geostatistics and multicriteria analysis) is of great importance for forestry management.
Projects for the regulation of torrent basins carry various unforeseen adverse effects that may result in breached deadlines, increased costs, a reduction of quality etc. The paper presents the basic characteristics and most frequent risks associated with erosion control. Furthermore, it provides an overview of risk management through its basic stages - starting from risk identification and risk analysis to risk responses, including the methods used for risk analysis. As a part of quantitative methods for risk analysis, the Monte Carlo method is presented as the one most frequently used in simulations. The Monte Carlo method is a stochastic simulation method consisting of the following stages: the identification of criterion and relevant variables, the allocation of probability for relevant variables, the determination of correlation coefficient among relevant variables, simulation execution and result analysis. This method was applied in the analysis of the total cost of the project for the basin regulation of the Dumaca River in order to determine the funding that would be used as a backup in case of unforeseen events with a negative impact. The project for the regulation of the Dumaca River includes basin regulation in the form of complex flow profile and the lining of zones where necessary in terms of stability. The total cost is presented as a sum of costs of all works (preliminary works, earthworks, masonry works, concrete works and finishing works). The Monte Carlo simulation for cost analysis is carried out using the Oracle Crystal Ball software with its basic steps described in the paper. A sum of funding needed as a financial backup in case of unforeseen events with negative effects is obtained as the simulated total cost of the project.
Original scientific paperThe most important elements in the planning of the implementation of the torrent (flood) control projects which need to be estimated are time, costs (budget) and resource required. These three elements are interactive: a shorter duration of structure construction causes additional resources engagement and increased costs, and vice versa -greater costs provide a shorter duration of construction. This paper analysis direct project cost minimization for four torrent control projects. The construction duration and the dynamic plan of project activities have been determined using the CPM method of network planning. The optimization problem -minimization of direct cost of construction subject to constraints such as: given deadline, precedence constraints, and upper and lower bounded duration time of activities is solved using linear programming and Matlab toolbox. Our results show that applied methods ensure significant cost savings, which is an important challenge in the construction management. Keywords: cost minimization; CPM method; linear programming; torrent control Minimiziranje direktnih troškova izgradnje objekata za zaštitu od poplavaIzvorni znanstveni članak Najvažniji elemeni u planiranju provedbe projekata kontrole od bujica (poplava) su procjena vremena, troškova (buđžeta) i resursa. Ova tri elementa su interaktivna: kraće trajanje izgradnje strukture uzrokuje angažman dodatnih resursa i povećanje troškova i obrnuto, veći troškovi dovode do kraćeg trajanja gradnje. Ovaj rad se bavi minimiziranjem direktnih troškova projekta na primjeru četiri projekta kontrole bujičnih poplava. Trajanje gradnje i dinamički plan projektnih aktivnosti su određeni pomoću CMP metode mrežnog planiranja. Optimizacijski problem -minimiziranje direktnih troškova gradnje, uz ograničenja kao što su: zadan rok, redoslijed aktivnosti, gornja i donja ograničenja vremena trajanja aktivnosti, riješen je primjenom linearnog programiranja i sučelja Matlaba. Dobiveni rezultati pokazuju da primijenjene metode osiguravaju značajne uštede što je važan izazov organizacije građenja.
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