Scenarios of potential vegetation distribution in the different gradient zones of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under future climate change

Fan, Zemeng; Bai, Xuyang

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148918

Cited by 40 publications

(30 citation statements)

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“…We stress that we used the resampled temperature data for the calculation of the ALT. Although bilinear interpolation has been widely used for downscaling ERA and CMIP6 data (Fan & Bai, 2021;Obu et al, 2019), there are still possible errors, which can further affect the accuracies of the ALT output in our results. Furthermore, there are sparse monitoring sites to calculate E values, which may affect the accuracy of the E value.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) is the sixth international coupled model comparison program initiated by the World Climate Research Program. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5 model, the CMIP6 model has improved considerably in terms of model resolution and modeled physical processes (Zhou et al, 2019).The monthly temperature data of CESM2-WACCM global climate model 2015-2100 in CMIP6 with a spatial resolution of 100 km × 100 km are used in this study (Deng, 2021), and these data can be downscaled to 1 km × 1 km using the bilinear interpolation method (Fan & Bai, 2021). Therefore, we used this method to resample the data set to 1 km × 1 km for the projection of changes in permafrost ALT in the Northern Hemisphere by 2,100 under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5).…”

Section: Cmip6 Air Temperature Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Active Layer Thickness in the Northern Hemisphere: Changes From 2000 to 2018 and Future Simulations

Wei

Liu

et al. 2022

JGR Atmospheres

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Permafrost is a product of cold climates and is mainly distributed in cold climatic high latitudes and high elevations in the Northern Hemisphere (Zhang et al., 1999). The permafrost regions account for approximately 22% of the land area in the Northern Hemisphere (Obu et al., 2019). Permafrost degradation may lead to greenhouse gas emissions from the decomposition of organic carbon stored in the permafrost regions, further contributing to global warming and accelerating permafrost thaw (Schuur et al., 2015).The active layer is the soil layer where water and heat are exchanged between the surface and air in permafrost areas. The freeze-thaw process of the active layer can greatly affect the hydrothermal physical properties of the soil, surface evaporation, vegetation growth, and surface albedo Zhao et al., 2019).These changes regulate exchange processes such as sensible and latent heat fluxes between the soil and the atmosphere, which significantly influence regional circulation (Zhang et al., 2014). The hydrothermal conditions within the active layer are the main factors controlling the water and energy exchange between permafrost and the atmosphere (Cheng et al., 2019), which can directly affect the ecological environment, hydrological processes, and carbon cycle in permafrost regions (Jorgenson & Osterkamp, 2005).There is great spatial heterogeneity in the active layer thickness (ALT) across the Northern Hemisphere. The ALT varied from approximately 30 cm in the Arctic and circumpolar regions to greater than 10 m in the midlatitude mountainous permafrost zone during 1990(Luo et al., 2016). The regional average ALT values were 48 cm in Alaska, 93 cm in Canada, 164 cm in the Nordic countries (including Greenland and Svalbard) and Switzerland, 330 cm in Mongolia, 476 cm in Kazakhstan, and 230 cm on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (Luo et al., 2016).During the past decades, the rate of warming in the permafrost zones in the Northern Hemisphere has been 2-3 times the global average (Hu et al., 2021;Mu et al., 2020). Global warming has led to an increase in permafrost temperature, a reduction in the extent of permafrost, and an increase in the ALT. From 1990 to 2012,

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Cmip6 Air Temperature Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Active Layer Thickness in the Northern Hemisphere: Changes From 2000 to 2018 and Future Simulations

Wei

Liu

et al. 2022

JGR Atmospheres

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“…was selected because of its good performance against historical air temperatures and rainfall records in the East Asia (Chen et al, 2021;Fu et al, 2020). We followed the previous studies to select the typical climate change projections Fan and Bai, 2021). Three representative concentration pathways (i.e.…”

Section: Climate Change Scenario and Modelling Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring dynamics of riverine phosphorus exports under future climate change using a process-based catchment model

Tong

Chen

Wen

et al. 2022

Journal of Hydrology

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“…The climate data were collected from 44 meteorological observation stations in Heihe River Basin and its surrounding area. The spatial data of MAB and TAP with a resolution of 500 × 500 m were simulated by operating the high-speed and high-precision surface modeling (HASM) method (see references of Yue et al (2013Yue et al ( , 2020 [31][32][33][34][35] for specific methods). Moreover, the digital elevation model (DEM) data of Heihe River Basin were obtained from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data, with a spatial resolution of 30 × 30 km (http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org, accessed on 5 June 2015).…”

Section: Data Collection and Processingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Patterns of the Vertical Distribution of Vegetation in Heihe River Basin since the 1980s

Fan

2021

Forests

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The vertical distribution of vegetation in Heihe River Basin has presented a significant dynamic change in the different elevation zones since the 1980s. To explore the dynamic patterns of vegetation types located in the different elevation zones of Heihe River Basin, this study collected 440 field sampling datapoints of vegetation types, remote sensing images, climatic observation data, and DEM and preprocessed them. On the basis of the vegetation distribution and the terrain characteristics of Heihe River Basin, this study classified the vertical distribution of vegetation in Heihe River Basin into six vegetation zones, namely, the oasis farmland and desert zone, desert-steppe zone, dry scrub-steppe zone, mountain forest-steppe zone, subalpine scrub-meadow zone, and alpine cold desert-meadow zone. Moreover, the mean annual biotemperature (MAB) and total annual average precipitation (TAP) were used to analyze the relationship between vegetation change and climate change in the different elevation zones. The results show that the change rate of vegetation was up to 25.75% in Heihe River Basin. The area of vegetation that changed in the oasis farmland and desert zone was the largest (7224 km2), and the rate of vegetation that changed in the mountain forest-steppe zone was up to 56.93%. The mean annual biotemperature (MAB) and total annual average precipitation (TAP) in the six elevation zones showed an increasing trend, in which the increased rate of TAP presented a downward trend with the increase of elevation, and that of MAB showed a continuous upward trend with the increase of elevation. The change rate of vegetation was generally higher than that of MAB and TAP in the low and middle vegetation zones. The influence intensity of human activities on vegetation change in the lower and middle elevation zones of Heihe River Basin was greater than that in the high elevation zone between the 1980s and the 2010s. MAB is the major impact factor to vegetation change in the alpine cold zone of Heihe River Basin.

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Scenarios of potential vegetation distribution in the different gradient zones of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under future climate change

Cited by 40 publications

References 50 publications

Active Layer Thickness in the Northern Hemisphere: Changes From 2000 to 2018 and Future Simulations

Active Layer Thickness in the Northern Hemisphere: Changes From 2000 to 2018 and Future Simulations

Exploring dynamics of riverine phosphorus exports under future climate change using a process-based catchment model

Dynamic Patterns of the Vertical Distribution of Vegetation in Heihe River Basin since the 1980s

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