Exploring dynamics of riverine phosphorus exports under future climate change using a process-based catchment model

Tong, Yindong; Chen, Ziwei; Wen, Yangyang; Miao, Qi; Wang, Yuyi; Mengshi, Zhu; Lin, Yan; Sha, Jingeng; Hefeng, Zhang; Ruonan, Wang; Wang, Xuejun

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127344

Cited by 1 publication

(4 citation statements)

References 85 publications

(131 reference statements)

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“…The period from 2006 to 2010 was regarded as the "warm-up period" of the model to eliminate the initial deviation generated during the operation of the model [12]. The model was calibrated based on the observation data of the hydrological and water quality monitoring station in PLB to fit the flow, sediment, and TP loading from 2011 to 2012, and then validated from 2017 to 2018.…”

Section: Spatial Set-up Of Simplyp and Model Inputmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, this anthropogenic phosphorus input, which is mainly based on the application of agricultural phosphate fertilizer, has significantly changed the phosphorus cycle on the land in the basin, and has led to non-point source pollution of water and soil, increasing the phosphorus loading of rivers and lakes [12][13][14]. At the same time, it has also restricted the further improvement of crop yield, affecting the sustainable development of agriculture.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On the other hand, climate change may also reshape the migration and transport mechanism of phosphorus from soil to water in the basin [12,17], affecting the TP loading of rivers and lakes through changes in water temperature and rainfall. Couture et al found through a group of chain model studies including the catchment phosphorus model and climate model that future climate change will increase rainfall and runoff, thus transmitting more phosphorus loading to lakes [18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We explored and analyzed the transport mechanism of phosphorus from land to typical rivers of PLB and introduced the climate prediction of the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC5) based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) into SimplyP. MIROC5 successfully simulates climate change caused by mean climate, variability, and anthropogenic radiative forcing [32], and it performs well in East Asia's rainfall and temperature records [12,33]. In recent years, the Chinese government has put forward a series of policies on "reducing fertilizer and increasing efficiency" in terms of the sustainability of future agricultural development and ensuring food production.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Controlling Phosphorus Transport in Poyang Lake Basin under the Constraints of Climate Change and Crop Yield Increase

Gao,

Huang,

Chen

et al. 2024

Water

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Phosphorus, as a key nutrient, plays an essential role in both algal growth in surface waters and crop development on land. Its presence in inorganic fertilizers is crucial for maximizing crop yields. However, an excessive accumulation of phosphorus in soils can lead to its loss and exacerbate eutrophication in water bodies. This study highlights the complex interplay among phosphorus management, agricultural productivity, and environmental health, particularly in the context of climate change’s influence on sediment transport and water pollution. We focus on the Poyang Lake Basin (PLB) and use a sophisticated process-based phosphorus model to forecast phosphorus load trends from 2020 to 2049. Our predictions indicate a significant increase in the total phosphorus load of the PLB due to the impact of climate change. To address these challenges, we explore a novel strategy combining organic and inorganic phosphorus fertilizers. This approach aims to improve crop yields while reducing non-point source phosphorus pollution through adjusted anthropogenic inputs. Our findings reveal that a synergistic application of these fertilizers, coupled with a controlled use of inorganic phosphate, can reduce its usage by more than 2.5% annually. This method not only contributes to a 2.2% average annual increase in livestock and poultry production but also promotes a 0.6% yearly growth in grain output. Consequently, it effectively diminishes non-point source phosphorus pollution, offering a sustainable solution to the dual challenge of enhancing agricultural productivity and protecting environmental health.

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Section: Spatial Set-up Of Simplyp and Model Inputmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%