Scenarios of land system change in the Lao PDR: Transitions in response to alternative demands on goods and services provided by the land

Ornetsmüller, Christine; Verburg, Peter H.; Heinimann, Andreas

doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2016.07.010

Cited by 47 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Land-use responses to urbanization stimuli are dependent on geographical location, and land ownership and land-use policies as integral parts of complex land systems [60]. Though this research illustrates a higher probability of land fragmentation in some types of horticultural land, other areas are much less affected, e.g., protected heritage wine making regions with large capital investments.…”

Section: Agricultural Land In the Areas Of Fragmentationmentioning

confidence: 88%

Agricultural Land Fragmentation at Urban Fringes: An Application of Urban-To-Rural Gradient Analysis in Adelaide

Wadduwage

Millington

Crossman

et al. 2017

Land

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Abstract:One of the major consequences of expansive urban growth is the degradation and loss of productive agricultural land and agroecosystem functions. Four landscape metrics-Percentage of Land (PLAND), Mean Parcel Size (MPS), Parcel Density (PD), and Modified Simpson's Diversity Index (MSDI)-were calculated for 1 km × 1 km cells along three 50 km-long transects that extend out from the Adelaide CBD, in order to analyze variations in landscape structures. Each transect has different land uses beyond the built-up area, and they differ in topography, soils, and rates of urban expansion. Our new findings are that zones of agricultural land fragmentation can be identified by the relationships between MPS and PD, that these occur in areas where PD ranges from 7 and 35, and that these occur regardless of distance along the transect, land use, topography, soils, or rates of urban growth. This suggests a geometry of fragmentation that may be consistent, and indicates that quantification of both land use and land-use change in zones of fragmentation is potentially important in planning.

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Section: Agricultural Land In the Areas Of Fragmentationmentioning

confidence: 88%

Agricultural Land Fragmentation at Urban Fringes: An Application of Urban-To-Rural Gradient Analysis in Adelaide

Wadduwage

Millington

Crossman

et al. 2017

Land

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“…Quantification of land-use and land-use change is important in understanding the impact of phenomenon like urbanization on landscapes, and it can strengthen the existing land-use management policies (Eric FMDA Lambin, Rounsevell, & Geist, 2000) in peri-urban zones. This is important as contemporary land-use research perspectives have changed from a focus on land-use and land cover to land systems, which incorporate socio-economic interdependencies to try and capture the complexity of land transformation processes (Grau, Kuemmerle, & Macchi, 2013;Eric FMDA Lambin, et al, 2000;Lauf, et al, 2016;Ornetsmüller, et al, 2016). The visual representation of the spatial variability of land vulnerability can improve our interpretations for the causes of the transformation of agricultural land to urban land uses in these complex land systems.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Three land change scenarios each with a clear storyline were developed: Business-as-Usual Land-use research have extensively used parameter weights for representing the parameter sensitivity to the defined scenario storylines (Buxton, et al, 2011;Estoque and Murayama, 2012;Long and Zhang, 2015;Salvati and Carlucci, 2013). Contemporary land-use studies have utilised the weights on parameters in various forms; indicators in urban studies (Lauf, et al, 2016;Thapa and Murayama, 2012), parameter inputs in CLUMondo and CLUE models (W. Jiang, et al, 2016;Zhifeng Liu, Verburg, Wu, & He, 2017;Ornetsmüller, Verburg, & Heinimann, 2016), factors in Cellular Automata (CA) Models (Feng and Liu, 2016) and parameter weights in LUTO models (Bryan et al, 2016) for representing the parameter sensitivity parallel to the defined scenario storylines. In this integrated approach, parameter weights were used to represent the parameter sensitivity to each scenario storyline while using spatially-explicit grid approach for calculating the agricultural land vulnerability indexes in spatial context.…”

Section: Scenario Development and The Land Vulnerability Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Peri-urban agricultural land vulnerability due to urban sprawl – a multi-criteria spatially-explicit scenario analysis

Wadduwage

2018

Journal of Land Use Science

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The loss of agricultural land at urban fringes is often monitored but rarely analysed under different scenarios of urban sprawl. This study adopts a multi-criteria spatially-explicit approach to investigate agricultural land vulnerability to urban sprawl under opposing policy directions in the Adelaide metropolitan area. Six land-use change parameters representing the socioeconomic and land-use planning effects were analysed under the scenarios of; Business-As-Usual (BAU), Accelerated Economic Development (EDS) and a high Environmental Protection Scenario (EPS). The study shows higher agricultural land vulnerabilities in EDS and BAU scenarios that extends into rural areas displaying a leapfrog effect, which confirms the need to sacrifice farm land uses to maintain land supply for urban development. The LGA-based results enable transfer of farmland vulnerability knowledge into practice by identifying high priority areas for land management interventions and by specifying the types of agricultural land to be strategically managed in these urban fringe landscapes.

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“…Specifically, land systems cannot be defined as mutually exclusive classes according to their land-use or land-cover but can be regarded as a series of entities with the same land cover but different land use intensity in application. In addition, land systems can represent multifunctional land, such as rural villages combining residential utilization with crop production and livestock production [23,24].Simulating the trajectories and patterns of land change by a series of scenarios is an accepted way to anticipate land change [25][26][27][28][29]. Comparing different outcomes under different scenarios is conducive to illustrating the adaptation of land systems to macroscopic environments and assisting in the decision-making of sustainable socioeconomic development and ecosystem conservation.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Simulating the trajectories and patterns of land change by a series of scenarios is an accepted way to anticipate land change [25][26][27][28][29]. Comparing different outcomes under different scenarios is conducive to illustrating the adaptation of land systems to macroscopic environments and assisting in the decision-making of sustainable socioeconomic development and ecosystem conservation.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

A Scenario-Based Simulation of Land System Changes on Dietary Changes: A Case Study in China

et al. 2019

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The dietary change of Chinese residents is driven by increasing incomes and urbanization, which will bring about non-negligible changes in the food production of the land system. To explore how dietary changes might influence future land systems and the environment, this research hypothesizes two potential dietary change scenarios in the period 2010–2030, based on the current trends and Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents (DGCR), and applies the CLUMondo model to simulate the spatiotemporal patterns of land systems and estimates a lifecycle’s environmental impacts on dietary change. As shown in the results, dietary changes would obviously alter the land cover, agricultural intensity, and livestock density of land systems, and the changes in land use intensity are noteworthy. If the current trend of dietary change is unchecked, the intensification and expansion of agriculture and animal husbandry would be widely distributed in North China and Northwest China, where the intensity of cropland was low in the past and the ecosystem was relatively fragile. Moreover, the increasing demands for food lead to sharp increases in the carbon footprint, water footprint, and ecological footprint from food production. In contrast, the balanced diet recommended by DGCR could offer considerable environmental benefits. This diet is conducive to cutting down land use intensity, helping natural systems avoid intensification, and the expansion of agriculture and animal husbandry, which lower footprints from food production and have helped to implement the policy of returning croplands to grassland and forests in China. Therefore, popularizing balanced diets could be a win–win for human health and environmental sustainability.

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Scenarios of land system change in the Lao PDR: Transitions in response to alternative demands on goods and services provided by the land

Cited by 47 publications

References 30 publications

Agricultural Land Fragmentation at Urban Fringes: An Application of Urban-To-Rural Gradient Analysis in Adelaide

Agricultural Land Fragmentation at Urban Fringes: An Application of Urban-To-Rural Gradient Analysis in Adelaide

Peri-urban agricultural land vulnerability due to urban sprawl – a multi-criteria spatially-explicit scenario analysis

A Scenario-Based Simulation of Land System Changes on Dietary Changes: A Case Study in China

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