Scenarios in Europe—Who uses them and why?

Malaska, Pentti; Malmivirta, M.; Meristö, Tarja; Hansen, Sam

doi:10.1016/0024-6301(84)90036-0

Cited by 53 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…In Europe, the survey results of Malaska et al [25] revealed a similar picture, i.e. that the highest proportion of scenario users were large companies operating in capital intensive industries with long strategic planning horizons, namely, oil companies, vehicle manufacturers, electricity suppliers and transport companies.…”

Section: The Growth Of Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 74%

“…Studies of European companies by Malaska [24], Malaska et al [25] and Meristo [29] clearly indicates that in Europe: † scenario planning was not widely used until after the first oil crises in 1973, following which the number of 'adopters' of scenario planning almost doubled; and † there was a further surge of adoption in the period between 1976 and 1978. This led Malaska et al to conclude that the adoption of scenario planning 'is associated with the increasing unpredictability of the corporate environment that took place in the 1970s'.…”

Section: The Growth Of Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 96%

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The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning

Bradfield

Wright

Burt

et al. 2005

Futures

853

606

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Section: The Growth Of Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 74%

Section: The Growth Of Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 96%

The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning

Bradfield

Wright

Burt

et al. 2005

Futures

853

606

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…However, little evidence is available about the use and effects of scenario planning on company performance [7,11,36]. The studies by Malaska,Malaska et al,Meristo [37,38,39] in Europe and Linneman and Klein [40] on the use of scenarios by companies are notable exceptions. They reveal that up to the first oil crises, they were not widely used, but in the following period, the number of users more than doubled.…”

Section: 'What Is It and Why Use It?'mentioning

confidence: 99%

Directions in scenario planning literature – A review of the past decades

Varum

Melo

2010

Futures

293

201

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This paper provides a systematized overview of patterns in the scenario planning literature published in the last decades. Recently, scenario planning has enjoyed a revival, apparent in the "boom" in published research on the matter. Consequently, a major issue that needs to be addressed is how to organize the literature along precise lines.A number of reviews that describe the current status of the body of literature and knowledge on scenario planning have made attempts to respond to such requirements. These studies agree that systematizing the existing literature is a necessary step in developing the field. This paper aims to contribute to this purpose. The review of the academic literature here conducted is thought to be useful for both academics and practitioners. For researchers, this systematic overview will not only be constructive in providing an analysis of the directions of published research but also in setting up a research agenda for the future. For managers and practitioners, it provides a clear outline of firmrelated articles and discusses their contribution from a managerial point of view. It also raises awareness with regard to future analytical methods, and in particular, to scenario planning and its potential contribution to the competitiveness of firms.

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“…Research indicates that there is correlation between adoption of scenario planning techniques and uncertainty, unpredictability and instability of the overall business environment [23]. Increasing uncertainty has increased the importance of identifying future trends and expected business landscape.…”

Section: Scenario Planningmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of Fuzzy Cognitive Map for the Development of Scenarios: A Case Study of Wind Energy Deployment

Daim

Jetter

2013

Research and Technology Management in the Electricity Industry

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In the present era characterized by uncertainty, innovation and change, scenario planning is an increasingly popular way to look at future environments because of its usefulness in times of uncertainty and complexity. Scenario planning outlines the possible futures, stimulates strategic thinking about the future and helps to overcome thinking limitations by presenting multiple futures. Developing Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM)-based scenarios is a very new approach. FCM is based on causal cognitive map which is an accepted intuitive method. This approach combines the benefits of both qualitative and quantitative analysis. In this study FCM-based scenarios are developed for the deployment of wind energy in a developing country to illustrate the usefulness of this approach. This study also describes the utilization of various tools proposed in the scenario planning literature to select and validate FCM-based raw scenarios. Moreover, a comparison of FCM-based scenario development approach with other prominent quantitative scenario development techniques is also presented in this chapter.

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Scenarios in Europe—Who uses them and why?

Cited by 53 publications

References 1 publication

The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning

The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning

Directions in scenario planning literature – A review of the past decades

Application of Fuzzy Cognitive Map for the Development of Scenarios: A Case Study of Wind Energy Deployment

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