Scenarios for Resource Allocation to Bulgaria’s Defense in the Horizon of 2035

Abstract

As part of the formulation of a vision for Bulgaria's force development in the horizon of 2035, the authors were tasked to study the evolution of the economic environment and provide a view on the potential resource allocation to defense. Our study resulted in three scenarios-"Bulgaria in the gray zone of the European economic space," "Peripheral economy," and "Catching up economy"-each one plausible under a set of driving factors and conditions. The paper presents the process of scenario design, the scenarios, the respective defense budget levels and the impact on Bulgaria's defense and armed forces.

“COVID-19” Pandemic: Rethinking Defence Spending in Bulgaria

“…In this line of thought, the global economic and financial crisis from the end of the first decade of this century had an adverse impact on the economic performance of many countries. This was true also in the case of military expenditures with a steady decline between 2009and 2014(EDA, 2021, which in turn suggests that from this perspective a similar period can be expected in the next few years, given the impact of the pandemic and related restrictive measures at the national, regional and global levels.…”