Scenario Management

Gausemeier, J.; Fink, Alexander; Schlake, Oliver

doi:10.1016/s0040-1625(97)00166-2

Cited by 211 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Scenarios can be considered as the core concept in futures research which aims at identifying and exploring multiple possible futures that can emerge from today's point of view. A scenario can be defined as the description of a coherent image of such a possible future [57,81]. In the sense of the linguistic turn where researchers consider statements about reality rather than reality itself [131], futurists deal with statements about the future rather than the future itself.…”

Section: Affordances Of the Scenario Technique Intended Effecter Affomentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the sense of the linguistic turn where researchers consider statements about reality rather than reality itself [131], futurists deal with statements about the future rather than the future itself. While futures research is completely open regarding the specific domain of inquiry, organizations are interested in feasible future developments in their specific environment that have a potential impact on them [57,81,139]. For example, which new technologies, products, or competitors could appear on their markets and harm their current market position?…”

Section: Affordances Of the Scenario Technique Intended Effecter Affomentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The scenario technique has been a well-known and widely used strategy and foresight tool in organizations [23,72]. While many other tools fail in highly uncertain environments due to their oversimplifying both problem description and possible solutions [100,107], the scenario technique is a tool that has been developed for precisely such contexts [57,81,139]. In the following, the paper focuses on the use of the scenario technique as a specific strategy tool used in a sub-process of the overarching strategy process ( Fig.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Scenarios in the strategy process: a framework of affordances and constraints

Tiberius

2019

Eur J Futures Res

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This paper challenges the solely rational view of the scenario technique as a strategy and foresight tool designed to cope with uncertainty by considering multiple possible future states. The paper employs an affordance-based view that allows for the identification and structuring of hidden, emergent attributes of the scenario technique beyond the intended ones. The suggested framework distinguishes between affordances (1) that are intended by the organization and relate to its goals, (2) that emergently generate organizational benefits, and (3) that do not relate to organizational but individual interests. Also, constraints in the use of scenarios are discussed. Affordance theory's specific lens shows that the emergence of such attributes depends on the users' specific intentions.

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Section: Affordances Of the Scenario Technique Intended Effecter Affomentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Affordances Of the Scenario Technique Intended Effecter Affomentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Scenarios in the strategy process: a framework of affordances and constraints

Tiberius

2019

Eur J Futures Res

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“…CIB can be understood as an improvement of a traditional scenario method named 'field anomaly relaxation' [55] or 'consistency matrix' [56]. Enriching this method with motifs from cross-impact analysis (CIA, [57]) results in a method capable of evaluating qualitative impact networks in a simple and transparent way.…”

Section: The Concept Of Context Scenarios and The Construction Of Socmentioning

confidence: 99%

Context scenarios and their usage for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios

Weimer-Jehle

Buchgeister

Hauser

et al. 2016

Energy

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a b s t r a c tModel-based energy scenarios are a widely used tool for supporting economic and political decision makers. The results of energy modeling and the conclusions deduced therefrom, however, depend on the model input data derived from framework assumptions about future developments in the embedding society, which are deeply uncertain in the long term. The challenge to deal with this 'context uncertainty' in a systematic and comprehensive manner has only recently started to attract intensified attention in energy research; the search for appropriate methods is ongoing. This paper proposes a new concept for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios, which combines familiar environmental modeling approaches with new developments in qualitative scenario methodology, and demonstrates the possible application of the concept in model-based energy scenario construction.

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“…The focus is on premium automotive companies. This chapter is structured with Gausemeier et al's phases of scenario technique [35].…”

Section: Scenarios For the Future Of Automotive Industrymentioning

confidence: 99%

Digitalization of automotive industry – scenarios for future manufacturing

2016

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-Among the current challenges to the global automotive industry are changes in global markets leading to product variety, regulation leading to pressure for new technologies in body and powertrain, and competition by new players such as huge information and communication technology companies. Automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) deal with these issues in different ways. This paper uses the scenario technique to illustrate possible answers to the question, how future value chains of automotive industry will look like. In almost all cases, information and communication technology (ICT) plays a major role in future strategies to cope with the aforementioned challenges. On the one hand, ICT can boost the way to more efficient production of variants by utilizing smart manufacturing approaches, on the other hand ICT enables new features such as autonomous driving.

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Scenario Management

Cited by 211 publications

References 7 publications

Scenarios in the strategy process: a framework of affordances and constraints

Scenarios in the strategy process: a framework of affordances and constraints

Context scenarios and their usage for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios

Digitalization of automotive industry – scenarios for future manufacturing

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