Scenarios in the strategy process: a framework of affordances and constraints

Abstract

This paper challenges the solely rational view of the scenario technique as a strategy and foresight tool designed to cope with uncertainty by considering multiple possible future states. The paper employs an affordance-based view that allows for the identification and structuring of hidden, emergent attributes of the scenario technique beyond the intended ones. The suggested framework distinguishes between affordances (1) that are intended by the organization and relate to its goals, (2) that emergently generate organizational benefits, and (3) that do not relate to organizational but individual interests. Also, constraints in the use of scenarios are discussed. Affordance theory's specific lens shows that the emergence of such attributes depends on the users' specific intentions.

Opportunity Recognition: Conversational Foundations and Pathways Ahead

“…Specifically, apart from past and present, also future customer wants and needs could provide a valuable source of insights into entrepreneurial opportunities. Especially the scenario technique could enable entrepreneurs to explore alternate future developments (Tiberius 2019) which contain novel opportunities. Dealing with divergent future scenarios can also enhance creativity (Rohrbeck and Gemünden 2011) beneficial for the opportunity recognition and especially creation process.…”

Radical innovations: Between established knowledge and future research opportunities

“…As radical innovations are absolutely novel rather than based on existing predecessors, it makes sense not only to concentrate on “what is”, but also “what could be”. Apart from knowledge about current customer wants and needs, current structure of competition, and available technologies, strategic foresight ( Fergnani, 2020 , Iden et al, 2017 , Rohrbeck et al, 2015 , Semke and Tiberius, 2020 ), and, more specifically, the use of the scenario technique ( Tiberius, 2019 , Tiberius et al, 2020 ), could explore multiple future developments which do not represent factual knowledge but rather mental images. Rather than forecasting the most probable future state ( Cuhls, 2003 ), the occupation with alternative possibilities might not only allow for a better future preparedness ( Rohrbeck & Kum, 2018 ) but also increase creativity ( Rohrbeck & Gemünden, 2011 ) as an antecedent of (radical) innovation ( Anderson, Potočnik, & Zhou, 2014 ).…”

Scenarios in business and management: The current stock and research opportunities

“…Scholars also examine cognitive and behavioral aspects which can be observed when the scenario technique is used by (groups of) individuals. We see a potential to address further benefits and side-effects of scenarios in future research ( Tiberius, 2019 ). Especially, scenario-based foresight seems to enhance a firm’s dynamic capabilities ( Haarhaus and Liening, 2020 , Schwarz et al, 2019 , Semke and Tiberius, 2020 ), which needs further exploration.…”

“…The scenario technique is an established method to cope with uncertainty by exploring multiple alternate future situations for strategic and operational planning purposes ( Godet, 2000 , Schoemaker, 1993 , Schoemaker, 1995 , Wright and Goodwin, 2009 , Tiberius, 2019 ). The method allows firms to adapt to dynamic environments and to enhance innovativeness ( Rohrbeck and Gemünden, 2011 , Worthington et al, 2009 ) and firm performance ( Phelps et al, 2001 , Rohrbeck and Kum, 2018 ).…”