Scenario Analysis of Renewable Energy–Biodiversity Nexuses Using a Forest Landscape Model

Haga, Chihiro; Maeda, Marimi; Hotta, Wataru; Inoue, Takahiro; Matsui, Takanori; Machimura, Takashi; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Morimoto, Junko; Shibata, Hideaki; Hashimoto, Shizuka; Saito, Osamu

doi:10.3389/fevo.2020.00155

Cited by 12 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…A Multi-Criteria Scenario Framework implies that the levers, i.e. planning criteria can be identi ed and adjusted in the increasing complexity of the land-use, energy and biodiversity nexus [24,162,34]. Multiobjective optimization can entail using planning criteria to explore the levers, i.e.…”

Section: The Model: Multi-criteria Scenario Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The framework allows decision-makers and stakeholders to explore different planning options based on certain criteria. The goal is to understand the spatial impacts of planning decisions in the context of renewable spatial targets, species, and land use [24,34,35,51]. Sustainable development involves social-ecological interdependencies [52].…”

Section: Research Questionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Competing actors, associated wicked problems, and perceived shortcomings in the spatial governance of renewable energy point to a nexus of divergent demands within the energy transition [26][27][28][29][30][31]. While 'nexus' refers to the linkages between sustainability goals, spatial levels and actors [15,32,33], an energybiodiversity-land nexus in particular is emerging, which will require increasing attention to successfully develop renewable energy [24,34,35].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Competing for space? - A multi-criteria scenario framework to model the energy-biodiversity-land nexus for regional renewable energy planning on a German case

Weber,

Steinkamp,

Reichenbach

2023

Preprint

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Background: The need to balance renewable energy supply with biodiversity conservation has become increasingly urgent in light of current climate, energy, and biodiversity crises. However, the development of wind and solar energy often presents trade-offs such as competing for land use and potentially impacting species and habitats. To address these concerns, ‘priority zones’ for bird and bat species have been proposed as spatial designations for early species protection in the regional planning process. However, there are concerns that the areas suitable for wind and solar energy may be limited further, making it difficult to meet state- and regional-specific spatial targets for renewable energy sites. Method: To help decision-makers deal with this challenge, a Multi-Criteria Scenario Framework has been developed and analyzed. It involves a habitat model of priority zones for species conservation and techniques from the intuitive logics scenario planning method. Through a regional case study, various planning criteria were analyzed scenario-driven, such as priority zones for species protection, settlement buffers, and forests. The framework indicates how criteria could be balanced to achieve wind energy spatial targets as well as targets for ground-mounted solar energy with the least possible impact. Results: Results show that compared to other planning criteria, species priority zones had limited competition with spatial wind energy targets. Achieving these targets may require minimal adjustments, such as allowing wind energy in 1-3% of completely protected recreational landscapes. To reconcile land use demands in the energy transition, a balance between ‘green’ protected areas is necessary. Additionally, ground-mounted solar energy could replace some of the wind energy spatial targets while also meeting the overall solar development goals. Conclusions: The framework provides transparency in assessing trade-offs between multiple objectives and helps quantify the ‘costs’ and ‘benefits’ in renewable energy planning. Adapting more flexible planning methods could help resolve the conflict between wind energy and species protection. Joint analysis of the areas needed for wind and solar energy and determining the optimal energy mix are gaining in importance. However, how the benefits of multi-criteria scenarios can be achieved within the confines of preoccupied and siloed organizations remains an ongoing research topic.

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Section: The Model: Multi-criteria Scenario Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Research Questionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Competing for space? - A multi-criteria scenario framework to model the energy-biodiversity-land nexus for regional renewable energy planning on a German case

Weber,

Steinkamp,

Reichenbach

2023

Preprint

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Towards Sustainable Development and Climate Co-governance: A Multicriteria Stakeholders’ Perspective

Koasidis

Karamaneas

Kanellou

et al. 2021

Multiple Criteria Decision Making

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Leaving disturbance legacies conserves boreal conifers and maximizes net CO2 absorption under climate change and more frequent and larger windthrow regimes

et al. 2023

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ContextForest landscape management practices that conserve species composition and maximize carbon sequestration despite changes in climate and disturbance regimes are required to achieve social and environmental targets. Although post-windthrow management, such as salvage logging, can reduce carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions within ecosystems by removing downed logs, it can result in major changes in tree species composition. Additionally, the net effects of salvage logging on CO 2 emissions may become negative based on a cradle-to-grave analysis (i.e., all aspects of wood processing including manufacturing and the disposal of wood products made from windthrow-damaged trees). ObjectivesOur objective was to assess the effects of climate change, changes in windthrow regimes, and postwindthrow management on tree species composition, as well as on the carbon balance in the forest sector by combining forest landscape simulations and life cycle assessments at the forested landscape in northern Japan. MethodsWe simulated forest dynamics in 36 scenarios based on features of the climate, windthrow regime, and postwindthrow management using the LANDIS-II forest landscape model. We also estimated CO 2 emissions related to post-windthrow management using a life cycle assessment approach. ResultsIncreases in the windthrow area, which is more vulnerable to climate warming, resulted in the development of temperate broadleaf-dominant forests and a decrease in aboveground biomass. The removal of advanced seedlings and dead woods due to post-windthrow management accelerated changes in the aboveground biomass and species composition due to the increase in windthrow frequency and intensity and temperature. The cumulative net CO 2 absorption of the forest sector over 115 years, including the carbon balance within ecosystems and the CO 2 emissions related to the management, manufacturing, and disposal of products, greatly decreased due to salvage logging and scari cation after logging. ConclusionsOur results demonstrate that leaving downed logs and advanced seedlings is recommended to conserve species composition and carbon sink function and maximize net CO 2 absorption despite a warming climate and more frequent and intense windthrow regimes.

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Scenario Analysis of Renewable Energy–Biodiversity Nexuses Using a Forest Landscape Model

Cited by 12 publications

References 65 publications

Competing for space? - A multi-criteria scenario framework to model the energy-biodiversity-land nexus for regional renewable energy planning on a German case

Competing for space? - A multi-criteria scenario framework to model the energy-biodiversity-land nexus for regional renewable energy planning on a German case

Towards Sustainable Development and Climate Co-governance: A Multicriteria Stakeholders’ Perspective

Leaving disturbance legacies conserves boreal conifers and maximizes net CO2 absorption under climate change and more frequent and larger windthrow regimes

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